Ahmed Cadde

Horn of Africa Analyst. Security. Politics. Featured in @ForeignPolicy @France24 @DailySabah and more. Founder @DailyJubba.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Breaking Somalia apart by recognizing Somaliland won’t bring peace or stability, it would do the opposite.

I make the case in my latest piece for @ForeignPolicy https://t.co/QRn2Ia7r4J

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

As more and more details begin to surface, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the events of August 25, 2023 remain one of the most crucial moments in Somalia’s history.

A clan enclave cannot became a state, and Somaliland will never rule SSC ever again.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

Israeli Defence Minister confirms that the northern separatist Somali region of Somaliland has been secretly working with Israel “for years”, presumably allowing Tel Aviv to use Berbera port against Iran & co with the facilitation of the #UAE ⤵️

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

Check out my comments on @TheAfricaReport discussing Somaliland’s relations with Israel & geopolitical consequences ⤵️⤵️

Full article: https://t.co/EaXXPr9vzb

[Faisal @FaisalAHAli]

Yikes. Somaliland’s president Cirro visited Israel’s internationally sanctioned and extremist finance minister Smotrich.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Ironically, the man Cirro is laying flowers for proposed the same Palestinian relocation policy Israel is now pushing in Somaliland, where Somaliland would take in Palestinians in exchange for recognition.

[Anna Rayva-Barsky אנה ברסקי @AnnaBarskiy]

נשיא סומלילנד עבד א-רחמאן מוחמד עבדאללה ורעייתו פארדוסה מוחמד רובלה הניחו זר בקבר הרצל לצד סגן יו"ר ההסתדרות הציונית העולמית גאל גרינוולד.
צילום: שלומי אמסלם

[The Daily Jubba @DailyJubba]

UPDATE: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has reportedly deployed members of the presidential guard, traditionally tasked with securing Villa Somalia, to the Cabdicasiis district, where former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is currently based alongside forces loyal to him.

The development comes amid reports of defections within President Hassan’s ranks, with some soldiers allegedly abandoning their positions and joining opposition-aligned forces.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Glad to see this new report to Congress on Somaliland land on the approach I argued in Foreign Policy.

Engage and promote growth without crossing the recognition threshold, anchored to Somalia’s territorial integrity.

The last thing the Horn of Africa needs is more wars.

[Suldan I. Mohamed, MA @SuldanMohamed_]

𝐔.𝐒. 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐧 #𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝: 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢�� 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢 𝐒𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐭𝐲 & 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲

The recent @StateDept report examining engagement with Somaliland represents an important development in U.S. policy towards the Somali Republic.

While the report formally reaffirms support for Somali sovereignty & territorial integrity, it simultaneously advances a framework that would deepen direct engagement with Somaliland authorities.

Despite supporters of Somaliland secessionism portraying an image of indirect recognition, this isn’t the case.

However, it contributes to a gradual process through which Somaliland may acquire increasing international legitimacy without formal recognition.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭?

Washington increasingly views Berbera & Somaliland’s coastline through the lens of great-power competition including #China & #Iran rather than Somali national politics.

The primary driver is not Somaliland as a political entity but rather its geographical location underpinned by lack of state power on the part of the Somali government. FGS has no presence in Berbera for example. It’s just realpolitik.

𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 & 𝐍𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚

The report explicitly stops short of recommending recognition of Somaliland. This demonstrates that #Somalia’s legal position remains strong internationally.

Negatives include:

- Direct engagement creates parallel diplomatic state structures that continue to erode the role of FGS.

- By engaging Somaliland independently of #Mogadishu, the U.S. risks creating incentives that reinforce political separation.

History demonstrates that international recognition is often preceded by decades of practical cooperation & separate institutional development.

- Lastly, it WEAKENS the FGS negotiating position with #Hargeisa. The more direct foreign engagement, the less there is an incentive to engage in talks.

𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝

1. It increases legitimacy. If approved, this policy elevates Somaliland from an internal Somali issue to a separate strategic actor from Mogadishu.

2. Enhanced investment opportunities. For example in #Berbera.

3. Expansion of diplomatic space, on the back of #Israeli recognition.

𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐆𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐰?

1. Compete through governance!

Somalia cannot preserve unity through diplomacy alone.

It must genuinely offer citizens basic things like security, economic opportunity & a social contract it encompasses all Somalis.

2. Reopen dialogue with Somaliland.

The Federal Government should demonstrate that national reconciliation remains possible and that Somali unity remains a viable political project.

Not paint the region as an adversary in a geopolitical quagmire.

3. Launch a sovereignty diplomacy initiative

Engage with international partners including U.S., UK, EU, a neighbouring countries, AU, Arab league…

Bring ambassadors together to reaffirm Somali unity as a national project & dangers of parallel institutions.

I will write a detail breakdown including history on my Substack today. 👍⤵️

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

The idea that foreign mercenaries have passed through Somali territory to fuel a war that has massacred civilians, displaced millions, and devastated Sudan is deeply disturbing.

Deni has accomplished something no Somali leader before him ever has. What a disgrace.

[The Daily Jubba @DailyJubba]

A newly released HRW report states Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF in Sudan passed through Bosaso, exposing Puntland’s possible role in a covert UAE-linked pipeline fueling one of Africa’s deadliest wars.

The report identifies Bosaso as a key transit point in the movement of foreign fighters and military support into Sudan alongside eastern Libya and Chad.

[The Daily Jubba @DailyJubba]

Today marks the end of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s four-year constitutional term as President of Somalia. Elected in May 2022 after defeating Farmaajo, his mandate now expires with no national election held and no clear transition plan in place

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Somalia’s political deadlock has taken a sharp turn, with talks appearing to have broken down once more despite threats of sanctions.

In less than 12 hours, President HSM’s term will expire without a political agreement in place, the first time since the TFG was formed.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

This is blatant fake news, and it’s reckless to spread this kind of garbage with the region already on edge. Somalia has banned no ships, and has zero involvement in the ongoing war.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇸🇴🇮🇱 Somalia is still pissed with Netanyahu over Israel's recognition of Somaliland.

So much so, they've banned the passage of Israeli ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Since the Houthis banned Israeli ships from the Strait over a year ago, I doubt Netanyahu's losing any sleep over it.

Source: APA News

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

“The UAE had the idea it was an indispensable partner for these global powers,” @andreas_krieg said. “But that idea has not necessarily rung true.

“If you want to build a service-based economy in Dubai, you need stability. You need to make sure that whatever happened is not going to happen again. And neither of the great superpowers will be able to make that promise.”
https://t.co/VNuyhPWFbr

[Zakaria Abshir @_ZakAbshir]

Portraits from Harar:

The City of Saints & the Civilizational Bedrock of Islam in the Somali Peninsula.

[Emadeddin Badi @emad_badi]

The Abu Dhabi-Riyadh rift is clearly alive and well, regardless of the ripple effects of the Netanyahu-Trump war on Iran.

Relevant for the Horn, Sudan, Somalia, & Libya, where the rivalry was already surfacing more overtly before the US-Israeli offensive on Iran.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

From my understanding the Head of the of Somaliland, Abdirahman Irro, is about to make a historic mistake. Some doors, once opened, cannot be closed. This deal is one of them.

Someone needs to tell Irro, legitimacy is worth nothing if the price is your sovereignty.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Turkey deserves to be criticized for their role in many other things but the blame lays solely on HSM for attacking a sitting leader, and Laftagareen for relying on foreign protection.

We must also ask how the SNA traveled from the capital to Baidoa on a road closed for 15 years

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

The situation which unfolded in Baidoa today was unfortunate but it’s important to understand that Gorgor and the vehicles being used are part of the Somali National Army.

Labeling them as Turkish trained or Turkish weapons is disingenuous and is propaganda designed by UAE.

[AAGA_CAWLLAN @AAGA_CAWLAN101]

Route of the convoy to Buurhakaba, mapped.

[Ali Omar @AliOmarMP]

Somalia does not want to see its territory pulled into external confrontations or used in ways that could further destabilise an already sensitive region https://t.co/k5BY2r9Qiv via @AJEnglish

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

Not only will these states prioritize rebuilding their damaged infrastructure, they will likely invest into and strengthen their military to prevent future attacks.

The longer these states are unable to export their gas/oil, the less money they have for foreign elections.

[Ahmed Cadde @AhCadde]

As this war in the Middle East continues, the ramifications for the Horn and Somalia in particular are clear.

In previous election cycles, Gulf states have been financiers of presidential candidates in an attempt to advance their interests. This will no longer be the viable.