It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production.
First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost.
2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle.
- - - - - - -
You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens.
This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market.
I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019.
Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for.
Current BTC Price: $74,324
200-Week MA: $58,751 (BTC is +26.5% above)
CoP Power Law: $73,523 (BTC is +1.1% above)
In his keynote , Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called OpenClaw the OS for Agentic Computers. He is right, and yet he is not really grokking the complete socio-cultural importance of the Claw movement. Here ismore context in my new article. https://t.co/x1BsQWK39f (tip @techmeme)
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
COINBASE IS SUING THE 🇺🇸 US SEC,
ALLEGING REGULATORS ARE TRYING
TO CRIPPLE THE CRYPTO INDUSTRY
BY PRESSURING BANKS TO DENY
CRYPTO FIRMS ACCESS TO THE
FEDERAL BANKING SYSTEM.
THIS IS MASSIVE FOR CRYPTO 🔥
#Bitcoin In this paper they show that different social network grow like a power law that is what we claim Bitcoin is following too. Notice they explicitly say, "reality doesn't follow a S curve".
Paper Link in the comments.
The power law for WeChat is 3.01 similar to the Bitcoin one.
BREAKING: A top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee is pushing for a $55B increase in defense spending above what President Biden has requested.
We recently saw another Armed Services Committee member buying up stock in Raytheon.
$RTX has risen 49% since then.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
THE US TREASURY WILL INITIATE A
BUYBACK PROGRAM FROM MAY 29
ABOUT $2 BILLION WILL FLOW INTO
THE ECONOMY EVERY WEEK.
FRESH LIQUIDITY WILL ENTER THE
MARKET, WHICH IS HUGELY BULLISH
FOR #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO.
#Bitcoin thicker line so easier to see. Actually I love this indicator.
All based on real science.
It uses wavelets to decompose the spectrum of Bitcoin and then finds a power law of this spectrum on a moving window. It is a way to explore the fractal properties of Bitcoin, all based on showing power law properties at all levels. Seems very useful when in combination with other Power Law indicators.
@genesis_runes@gm7t2 Sent my Genesis Miner to your vault a few days ago, it upgraded to the new mining rate fine, but now it has stopped mining completely, just frozen. Wondering what's up.
bc1pcwl9c33vyaf4k5e9h9yt8cazyx7hz646n4z4uvtu9z8hn04uqrjqc5838u
https://t.co/inCnp4LBVj
They are projecting an additional 8 weeks of development time, plus time for testing, before the fork that brings us Nakamoto features at ‘Activation’. Code complete on the new Signer resiliency features is expected July 15th with Activation now starting August 28th.
It's (re)Stacking Day 🧡
Roughly 27 hours left until Stacking Cycle 84 starts 🟧
Giveaway Day 6, Prize:
- 5,000 STX (over 10,000 USD)
Entry:
- Interact with this post
- Stack over 50 $STX for Cycle 84
Check the thread below on how to submit your proof of Stacking 👇 (1/2)