Ajay Sharma

Experienced Investor, ex Citi AM, Morgan Stanley, DSP Merrill

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@JackFarley96 The so called combined spend by Samsung and Hynix $880bn will be spent over more than 10 years and they are already spending $90bn in 2026. So not going to move the needle. Semi equipment stocks are pricing 30%+ growth to continue for years- not an easy ask.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@StockSavvyShay They will need humongous capex and debt/equity funding to achieve these numbers. ROIC on most of the current contracts is below 10%.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@tengyanAI Wrong way to look at it. In that scenario the gross profit drops from 89$ to 39$ and that is what will cause stock to tank.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@GerberKawasaki Majority of growth has been price driven and now that will be capped by long term agreements. No reason for it to rerate.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@oguzerkan Exactly right. Neo clouds pricing per MW of rented capacity at $10/MW is not sufficient to earn them a decent ROIC. Hyperscalers earn a better ROIC as they can sell lot of services with their cloud infrastructure.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@Sam_Badawi Both stocks are good shorts . The business model can't self finance itself and NPV of each contract is negative due to high capital intensity- asset turn of 0.1x. plus heavy obsolescence risk of GPU assets after the short duration contracts get over.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@StockSavvyShay Business model is a cash guzzler with asset turn of 0.1x and net debt to EBITDA of 10x- highly leveraged. They will need to keep diluting to fund the revenue growth. Profits will be hard to come by after netting depreciation and interest costs.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@meeijer The business model is screwed up. Very capital intensive. Growing revenues will keep requiring huge capex and continuous equity dilution. NPV of every contract is probably negative.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@damnang2 Let's not get carried away. Memory cos are making more money in legacy memory than HBM currently. Even Chinese can make legacy Dram and supply response will come eventually as current margins of 70% are too attractive. The excess profits in legacy Dram will erode over time.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@PepInvestStocks Just check out their 9 months results. Profits down more than 40% at a time HBM has been booming.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@aleabitoreddit Investors should be careful of blindly buying thematic stocks. Towa has auto, medical device exposure and operating profits declined 44% in 9 months at a time when HBM has been booming. Best avoided.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@yianisz Whatever they gain here they will lose more than that from loss of Apple's biz and Samsung's Exynos in next 1-2 years.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities The numbers can be misleading for cyclical stocks particularly memory and also semiconductors. AMD, AVGO, LITE etc are not cheap by any standards- even after factoring supernormal growth over next few years, the 2028 PE multiples are in 20s.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@jukan05 @latent_value7 Factor in the loss of Apple business ( confirmed) and future loss in Samsung business as Exynos gains more traction.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

@stockedgeN Street is already at $2.4bn revenues for FY2027 and even management has guided for that. So no upside on that count.

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

Management has stopped holding conference calls and CFO has resigned. Poor corporate governance by a company majority owned by Reliance group. @CNBCTV18Live @ETNOWlive @RILretail @ju

[Ajay Sharma @Ajaysharmasing]

Just dial is trading below net cash in its books. Mcap 4600cr; net cash 5800cr. Historical pe 9x. Promoters are destroying shareholder value by hoarding cash.