Akashic Edge

Monitoring the Situation, but in a way you never imagined possible

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

CO primary by party 2024/2026

#CO01 D+74.6%, D+82.6% (D+8)
#CO02 D+49.5%, D+57.3% (D+7.8)
#CO03 R+26.6%, R+3.8% (D+22.8)
#CO04 R+32.6%, R+13.5% (D+19.1)
#CO05 R+35.8%, R+0.8% (D+35)
#CO06 D+28.8%, D+42% (D+13.2)
#CO07 D+21.2%, D+31.8% (D+10.6)
#CO08 R+12.6%, D+25% (D+37.6)

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

2024

#CO03 R: 62.9% D: 37.1% (R +26.6%)
#CO05 R: 67.9% D: 32.1% (R +35.8%)
#CO08 R: 56.3% D: 43.7% (R +12.6%)

2026

#CO03 R: 51.9% D: 48.1% (R +3.8%)
#CO05 R: 50.8% D: 49.2% (R +0.8%)
#CO08 R: 37.5% D: 62.5% (D +25%)

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

Colorado Primary votes by party

2024

#CO03 GOP: 88,524 Democratic: 51,719
#CO05 GOP: 86,842 Democratic: 41,115
#CO08 45,687 Democratic: 35,409

2026

#CO03 GOP: 93,504 Democratic: 86,573
#CO05 GOP: 75,698 Democratic: 73,257
#CO08 GOP: 47,671 Democratic: 79,508

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

Guess the metro area

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

normalized Catholic/Evangelical split (blue more Catholic, red more Evangelical) - low key one of the most important maps of America

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

https://t.co/gns4aPpPAb

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

The best single predictor of Trump's 2024 swing wasn't race, income, or education. It was language.

Pop-weighted correlation between a county's non-English CVAP share and its 2020→2024 Republican swing: r = 0.76

Extraordinary for a single variable. Here's what's behind it. 🧵

[Akashic Edge @AkashicEdge]

r = 0.76 tells you what moved the needle in 2024.

What moved was tied to a person, not a party. A boss, not an institution.

Starr County voted for the boss. Not for the party.

And bosses don't last.

Full analysis + data: