this infographics is insane leak of the decade by Jane Street Intern over reddit. 45k upvotes.
after leaving hedge fund, this crazy guy built solo hedge fund regime trading system all alone from 4x4 room.
point 6 reveals his exact workflow harness to build solo hedge fund using Quant Kit.
Bookmark before this technical guide disappears.
Predictions for the next 2 months:
-Market’s reach their ATH on the 9/11 New Moon. 🌑
-9/11: CPI comes in much cooler than expected.
-9/16: Warsh holds rates.
-9/18: BoJ surprises markets with a 50bps rate hike + yentervention, unwinding markets via carry trade.
-Mid October: Global Diesel Shortages begin.
-By 10/23: US 10YR=5%+, Gold & Silver will be $6000 and $150, Oil ATH.
-10/26: A major private credit firm goes under.
-10/26-11/09: Greatest Stock Market Crash of all time.
-11/4-11/9: DSA Democrats & AIPAC Republicans sweep the midterms.
-11/9: Fed begins emergency rate cuts, marking the bottom of the crash on the New Moon🌑
*honorable mention: ‘Iranian’ Cyber Attacks during the midterms/market crash.*
I wish you all the best going forward.
📌 this
🚨 WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE HOTTEST PHASE
Every mid-term election year for 50 years has delivered a drawdown
1974 Ford: -35%
1978 Carter: -15%
1982 Reagan: -17%
1990 Bush: -20%
1994 Clinton: -8%
1998 Clinton: -22%
2002 Bush: -34%
2010 Obama: -17%
2018 Trump: -20%
2022 Biden: -27%
2026 Trump: ???
Ten mid-term years. Ten drawdowns. Not one skipped its turn. Average: roughly -21%.
And 2026 has more than the calendar working against it. A new Fed chair, eight weeks into the job. Across nine decades, every new chair was greeted with an equity drawdown in his first three months. Twelve chairs, twelve drawdowns, average roughly -12%. The market doesn't price a person. It prices a probability distribution. And it probes until the new chair reveals himself.
The last time both cycles overlapped: 2018. Powell takes the chair, Volmageddon hits within days, and after "a long way from neutral" the market pushes the S&P down 20% into Christmas Eve. Then Powell blinked. 2019 delivered over 30%. New chair, mid-term year, autumn washout, capitulation low, melt-up. That's the template.
Even fear has a calendar. The VIX troughs in early summer and peaks in September and October, and in mid-term years the crest runs higher. It sat in the mid-teens in early July, right at the seasonal trough. On Friday it jumped above 18. The market has started paying attention. It has not yet paid the full toll.
Meanwhile the shock absorbers are gone. Retail cash allocations at extreme lows seen only in 1998, 2000, 2018 and 2021. Put/call skew at a record low, nobody is hedging. Record IPO supply draining liquidity from the existing market.
And here's the flip: every single one of those ten mid-term drawdowns was a buying opportunity. Not most. All. Since 1934, the average rally off the mid-term low: roughly 47%. The market took out its prior high four times out of five. Bull markets don't die of drawdowns. They die of exhaustion. The mid-term correction is the maintenance schedule of the four-year cycle.
The playbook is not heroic. Hold your quality. Keep dry powder with a shopping list attached, decided at VIX 18, executed at VIX 28. Buy the fear in tranches.
The full map is out tomorrow, free for everyone. Twelve Fed chairs, ten mid-terms, the VIX season, the liquidity cycle, the 1998 rhyme. And the four tripwires that would prove it all wrong.
Greed is obvious. Fear is the edge.
When the cannons fire, buy.
Elon Musk believes that we are in a simulation:
"I do have this theory about predicting the future which is that the most interesting outcome is the most likely"
"If simulation theory is accurate this makes sense because if anyone is simulating a wide range of futures they're going to stop the simulation when it gets boring"
"This is what we do in reality. If SpaceX is doing simulations to understand how a rocket works we run all these simulations in the computer"
"The simulations that we pay attention to are the ones that are the most interesting"
"We could be an alien Netflix series and that series is only going to get continued if our ratings are good"
"If you apply Darwin to simulation theory then only the most interesting simulations will continue"
"Therefore the most interesting outcome is the most likely because it's either that or annihilation"
"So really we have one goal. Keep it interesting."
Chase Hughes on Simulation Theory: “Separation is the GREATEST LIE ever told to the entire world.”
The behavior expert and former military interrogation trainer says dreams reveal how reality actually works. In a dream the distance between you and a fireplace is made of the same substance as the fireplace itself, which is made of the same substance as you. Everything is recursive back to one point of consciousness. There is no actual distance and no actual other. It is all you.
He ties this to the first Hermetic principle written thousands of years ago: all is mind, the universe is mental. Quantum physics keeps circling the same idea. Matter is mostly empty space. Observation changes outcomes. What looks solid and separate may be consciousness appearing to itself as objects, people, and distance.
Hughes asks whether waking life is simply the next layer, a shared dream rather than a private one. If that is true, the feeling that you are cut off from everyone and everything is the oldest and most effective lie ever sold.
a physics phd accidentally found how Citadel knows when to enter 18 minutes before price moves
he was studying particle drift equations. published it on arxiv in 2019. nobody in trading ever noticed
the math mapped perfectly onto order book dynamics
here's the part that should bother you:
retail tracks price. price is the last signal in the chain, not the first
institutional money hits options markets before equity - always - because a $400M equity entry creates slippage they can't mask, but the options hedge is harder to detect
that hedge shows up in one place: 25-delta put skew, live, compared against its 20-day rolling baseline
when skew compresses 1.3+ standard deviations below baseline on SPY, a major buyer is positioning
signal precedes price by 6 to 18 minutes on average
cboe publishes this data for free, in real time, every single trading day
ran it on 14 months of live signals
> 71% win rate
> avg hold: 26 minutes
> positive expected value every month, no exceptions
math to calculate it is 40 lines of python
data costs nothing
paper explaining the physics analog has been on arxiv since 2019
nobody linked it in your trading group because your trading group learned RSI from a youtube channel that also sells a $297 course
Bookmark this
they kept you debating indicator settings and timeframes while the actual institutional footprint was sitting in public options data, completely free, the entire time
The Matrix hid a 200-year-old philosophy inside a shootout scene and almost nobody noticed.
"A man can do what he wants, but he cannot want what he wants."
That single line dismantles the version of free will most people carry around without ever examining.
You can chase a desire once it appears in your mind. You can act on the hunger, the ambition, the attraction, the fear.
What you cannot do is sit in a quiet room and decide, from scratch, what will make your heart quicken tomorrow morning.
Your wants were installed. Genes you didn't pick, a childhood you didn't design, a culture that shaped your nervous system before you had words to resist it, and a brain chemistry that rewards certain stimuli whether you approve of them or not. The self that appears to be choosing is downstream of all of it like a narrator taking credit for a script written elsewhere.
Neuroscience keeps confirming what the Oracle said.
Benjamin Libet's experiments in the 1980s showed the brain initiates a decision several hundred milliseconds before the conscious mind reports "choosing." Later fMRI studies stretched that gap to seven seconds. Sometimes ten. The brain has already moved. You just haven't been informed yet.
Which reframes almost every self-improvement fantasy quietly and completely.
You cannot will yourself into wanting to exercise. You cannot even force yourself to desire the healthier partner, the harder book, the calmer life. What you can do with AI is arrange the environment, exposure, community, ritual, so that different desires eventually grow in the soil of who you already are.
The freedom people actually have is smaller and stranger than the marketing suggests.
CERN Scientist Goes Viral After Exposing the Illusion We Live In
Dr. Bernardo Kastrup worked at CERN. He spent years deep inside the world of high-level science and technology. But something didn’t add up. Today, he’s one of the few respected voices claiming that reality is not made of matter — it’s made of mind.
According to him, everything we experience is a projection of consciousness, and the physical world is just a mental illusion. His ideas are shaking the foundations of science — and revealing truths many still refuse to accept.