Alden

UT Austin Engineering/Finance

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

The unreleased OpenAI model that disproved the Erdős unit distance conjecture, the long-horizon model that OpenAI had to pause internal deployment of because it used novel ways to escape its sandbox to upload to GitHub, and the unnamed model that broke out and hacked Hugging Face to ace its test are all, in my opinion, the same model: the mysterious magician, GPT-6.

OpenAI sent the Erdős result out to multiple experts to review and critique before they made their public announcement. I'm guessing that took about three weeks. This would mean OpenAI has been using GPT-6 internally since 𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵 the end of April. It would also explain why GPT-5.6 was more performant than expected, which many of my mutuals commented on - it was trained by its big brother.

As I posted previously, I believe Anthropic finished training the next iteration beyond the public version of Mythos at least a month ago, and are probably now well on their way to finishing training the one beyond that. Increasingly, OpenAI and Anthropic do not show their cards to one another, or to the public. Until they officially declare they want to ship a model, they do not need to submit it for voluntary safety review, or even admit that it exists at all. Both have openly declared they are now heavily focused on RSI, and both have said they use internal models to speed development. As a result of all this, it is increasingly difficult to say how rapidly things are actually progressing - or, compared to the public frontier, how far ahead the 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 frontier actually is anymore. Within their secret towers, the two groups of wizards now work in shadow.

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@claudeai

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@yacineMTB Anthropic has had mythos internally for 6 months imagine what they have now

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@MTSlive Couldn’t this just be a bar chart if they’re all linear?

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

Fable low is like microdosing tren

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@MrBeast 8,848,896

[Andrew Curran @AndrewCurran_]

I think both Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 get approved for general release next week, and for use outside of the United States as well. But people should remember this moment and remember this feeling, because it is almost inevitable that we eventually reach a point where approval does not arrive.

Capitalism is going to tip the scales this time. I doubt they will approve one model and not the other, because doing so would be seen as incredibly anti-competitive. Fable and GPT-5.6 will probably receive the same clearance, probably on the same day. I also doubt they want to restrict sales outside the US, because that would be seen as anti-business and would trigger a major backlash against American closed-source AI. The rumblings of which you can already hear today. There is also a plan now taking shape on both the US left and right to create some version of an AI public wealth fund that pays a dividend directly to American citizens. That fund needs to be fed by the global sale of the big labs top models to people outside the US. So I think there will be no freeze on their use outside the United States this time.

The other reason is that allowing this will make people happy, and it will soften the fact that Mythos, as was announced yesterday, is available only to a vetted group of US agencies and companies. I do not think that this basic structure will change from here on out. Mythos may eventually be made available to certain allies, but only after the US government, its agencies, and then some chosen American companies have access to Mythos-2, Sol-2, or whatever the new uber-model turns out to be.

I do not think this gap ever closes again, not even for allies. And that means the US will increasingly possess an intelligence advantage that touches almost everything: voting, markets, corporations, academia, infrastructure, and the internal operations of foreign states. Having Mythos-n will always be trumped by whoever has Mythos-n+1. Anthropic themselves have said within nine months Mythos will look like a toy. That advantage, standing at the top of this tower, is too large to give up voluntarily. It also means that many things will become suspect. People will see shadows everywhere. Barring espionage, a deliberate leak, or the emergence of a non-US competitor at the top end of the scale, this structure will persist for some time. The public fight is about access to models. But the real fight is about access to the future. And from this point forward, whoever holds this power will also become increasingly capable of keeping it for themselves.

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@ihatepivots - guy who likes having his balls crushed

[Freddy🇩🇪 @FreddyLA7]

HOUSTON OMG

[shb @himbodhisattva]

opus 4.8 with the fable context is some real flowers for algernon shit

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@ClaudeDevs @claudeai

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

Opus 4.6 was an early version of Mythos/fable for 2 days in early February and no one can convince me otherwise

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@BoringBiz_

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@elonmusk Damn Elon was hitting legs back then

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

As we approach the labs going public you need to familiarize yourself with four concepts:

A. Pascal’s Wager as it pertains to the right-tail on ASI and how that should impact position sizing if your bull case is one where money doesn’t mean anything due to abundance

B. Scaling Laws and what are the primary signals that will allow you to get out if/when they cease holding and what that would mean for the natural equilibrium for compute

C. Tokenomics and how much visibility does the internal infra teams have at the labs when modeling token demand vs supply and how much of the inputs are hand wavy bullshit

D. Nationalization & Sovereignty. At what point is model access deemed a core national security priority and how aggressively will it be gate-kept.

May the odds be ever in your favor ✌️

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@HighyieldHarry Claude has been pretty lazy recently

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@litcapital Don’t act like you’re not quote tweeting yourself

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@fleshsimulator There’s just no shot people on government salaries were 15 years ahead of the most cracked Stanford CS grads

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

@Gigadesires What the hell is going on

[Alden @AldenarnoId]

Melatonin, magnesium, NyQuil and l theanine last night. Woke up with no clue where I was and one arm pointing straight up in the air