AleSimo

COVID-19 research

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@DsrPrivate any views on gold? quite a poor performance lately, are you considering an entry near these levels?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

$SOMA.V I agree with another user “Companies do this all the time through private placements at a 10–20% discount to market (often with warrants attached). Here, debt was converted at a 17% premium. I’m buying more as I type.”

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

I seem to be in the minority here, but I like the transaction.

The debt was converted at C$1.10/share, which represented roughly a 17% premium to the recent trading price. the company eliminates over C$25M of debt and future interest expense and becomes debt free

[Junior Mining News @JRMiningIntel]

SOMA ANNOUNCES DEBT SETTLEMENT FOR SHARES - $SOMA.V | CEOCA Breaking News
https://t.co/0JCJBMUGGQ

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

Still love $MKO.V and $FRED.V but had to trim in the last run

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

Time to play this game again. These are my current top positions:
1. $ATY.V (El Roble LOM extension due within 6–7 weeks max. I expect this to rerate massively. Caveat: I was wrong in February and I might be wrong again)
2. $SURG.V (PFS due in ~4 weeks)
[...]

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

My current top mining-related positions:
1. $ATY.V (La Plata recently received its environmental permit; construction decision expected by Q3. Deleveraged balance sheet will be published in April)
2. $MKO.V
3. $FRED.V
4. $ASE.V
4. $SURG.V

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

3. $RIO.TO (Everyone is there for Fenix Gold. I personally loved the Condestable Mine acquisition. Copper > $6.50/lb and they're already printing money.)
4. $SOMA.V (Bullish on Colombia. Super cheap. Sentiment is awful. I love buying hate.)
5. $BOGO.V and $EDM.V

[Fred Kosters @FredKosters]

$ATY.v is a big beneficiary of higher copper prices. Copper sales in Q1 were realized at an average price of USD 5.58/lb. Today, the copper price is a dollar higher (USD 6.59/lb). Based on this higher price and assuming annual copper sales from El Roble of 11M pounds, Atico's pre-tax cash flow increases by USD 11M per year = CAD 15.2M, all else equal. That's almost one third of the company's current mcap. After tax, a one dollar increase in copper prices lifts FCF by an amount that constitutes appr. 20% of Atico's mcap, assuming a copper production of 11M pounds per year.

Atico currently operates only one producing asset (El Roble). The second and larger asset (La Plata), which is also a gold/copper project, will be advanced to a construction decision in Q3 2026 and start production in 2028. Atico's current mcap implies almost no value for La Plata. This should change as soon as project financing is secured (the big catalyst!) and construction of the mine starts.

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@TheWealthMiner Any views on Paramount Gold latest FS for Grassy?
https://t.co/NkS8KgmRWg

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@Mark_IKN Any views on Paramount Gold latest FS? https://t.co/NkS8KgmRWg

[Fred Kosters @FredKosters]

Atico Mining ($ATY.v) released Q1 results:

- USD 9.87M cash flow from ops before WC movements = USD 39.5M annualized
- USD 8.25M adj. cash flow from ops before WC movements = USD 33M annualized
- USD 6.25M adj. FCF after capex and financing activities = USD 25M annualized
- EV/adj. CFO: 1.5x (fully diluted)
- EV/adj. FCF: 1.9x (fully diluted)

The aforementioned adj. numbers include tax costs based on present earnings instead of deferred taxes). Based on these numbers Atico looks very cheap. The company currently operates only 1 mine (El Roble in Columbia). Remaining mine life based on existing MRE is very short. However, post-MRE drill results have shown higher grades than MRE in mineralization zones that are open at depth and along strike. This, in connection with ongoing exploration activities, should allow a multi-year mine life extension.

Atico’s second asset (La Plata in Ecuador) is a development-stage polymetallic project. All major permits have been obtained. The construction permit is still pending and a construction decision is expected in H2 2026. Project financing still has to be secured (USD 91M acc. to FS). At 4.5k gold, 5.90 copper and 70 silver, La Plata alone will generate an annual FCF that is 1.5x Atico’s current EV.

The balance sheet is still a little stressed with a working capital deficit, but this will improve in the next quarters due to positive cash flows from El Roble. The biggest hurdle is securing project financing for La Plata. If/when this is achieved, Atico should fly. Not without risk.

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@DsrPrivate what's the cheapest asset class out there? bonds?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@Kacper_PK_CH yep

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@DsrPrivate is this why GLD is behaving the way it is behaving?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@DsrPrivate At which levels is GLD a buy here? 4350 or so?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@MacrostratPB Does it change anything to the long gld/gdxj trade? Still long?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@TheWealthMiner I guess they could do both at the same time. Why don’t you like the asset? In any case, there are quite a few catalysts coming up in the next few weeks- I bought back in this past week

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@MacrostratPB Love the post. Can you elabore on the equity positioning given the post? One would assume that $155 plus per barrel oil dramatically increase the recession risk

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@MacrostratPB But oil ain’t flowing, no?

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@inigoezponda great company with fantastic management , it's my second largest holding (and ready to buy more if Trump makes it drop below 8)

[AleSimo @AleSimo19]

@EconstratPB @dampedspring pancake flight?