Ali Vaez

Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program @CrisisGroup; Adjunct Prof @Georgetown; Ex @FPI_SAIS @UNDPPA @FAScientists @Harvard

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

If the U.S. and Iran allow even this modest understanding to disappear, the next cease-fire will become merely the pause before the next battle — and war, rather than diplomacy, could well become the permanent condition. My latest for @NYTOpinion

https://t.co/eLQi0nWC03

[POLITICO @politico]

BREAKING: The House voted to end Trump’s war in Iran, dealing him another loss. It is the second time lawmakers voted to halt the nearly five-month conflict.
https://t.co/y2yMJtJWB6

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Exclusive: President Trump told me he is "close" to decision on "massive attack" against Iran, but stressed he hasn't made final determination. My story on @axios
https://t.co/2JHkinmNXr

[Badr Albusaidi - بدر البوسعيدي @badralbusaidi]

Pleased to meet UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband. We discussed the Strait of Hormuz and the urgent need for stakeholders to cooperate on UNCLOS obligations.

[Mai Sato @drmaisato]

Together with UN experts, I have condemned the resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran, only weeks after a 14-point memorandum intended to end the war. https://t.co/9NO2nU3sSj

According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, 50 people have been killed and more than 500 injured. A desalination plant was hit, reportedly leaving 10,000 people without water, and patients were evacuated from their beds after strikes beside a children’s cancer hospital in Ahvaz. Whether in war or under internal repression, the suffering of the most vulnerable too often remains invisible. Those losing their lives are fishermen, night-shift workers caught in the strikes, and residents of informal settlements -- people already living on the margins, long deprived of basic services. Women, children, refugees, persons with disabilities and people living in poverty shoulder the heaviest consequences of this violence while having the least access to protection and support. Minority communities, including the Baluch, whose areas were struck, are among Iran's most marginalised. Their deaths must not go unseen or unacknowledged.

The people of Iran are once again caught between renewed US strikes and their government’s internal repression. I continue to receive reports of executions, mass detentions, torture and enforced disappearances. Twelve individuals arrested in connection with the nationwide protests had their death sentences upheld on 5 July 2026, two of whom have already been executed, while the remaining ten are reportedly facing imminent execution. Most of individuals were in their teens and in their early 20s at the time of their arrest in Isfahan.

Civilians must not pay the price of this conflict. All parties must protect civilian lives and return to negotiations.

[Mairav Zonszein מרב זונשיין @MairavZ]

Israel is slowly but surely preparing Israelis to go back into bomb shelters, anticipating Iranian fire as a result of US escalation. This is not provided by Netanyahu or army, but rather from media and local authorities/mayors announcing public shelters have been opened

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

In war, proportionality is the difference between defeating an enemy and becoming indistinguishable from one.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Marco Rubio on Iran:

Araghchi says their policy is an eye for an eye.

Trump's policy is a head for an eye.

They will pay a very heavy price.

[U.S. Embassy Amman @USEmbassyJordan]

July 22, 2026 - Worldwide Caution for U.S. Citizens

The Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution.

Location: Worldwide 

Event: Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation.

Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions. Some airlines in the region have postponed resumption of earlier flight schedules; others have cancelled some routes.

Americans outside the Middle East should reconsider travel to and through the region. Those who do travel to or from the region should monitor information about airport and airline operations.

U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted. Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world, including U.S. businesses and other institutions.

Actions to Take

Americans traveling in or through the region should check with their air carriers to make sure their flights are still scheduled.
Contact your airline directly for flight change details if your flight is affected.
Monitor embassy and consular security alerts and the news for breaking developments.
Follow the instructions of local authorities.

Enroll at https://t.co/Ot4N63tt9f to receive the latest security alerts and follow the "U.S. Department of State - Security Updates for U.S. Citizens" channel on WhatsApp or @TravelGov on X. When planning travel, carefully read the Travel Advisory and detailed information for your destination, and any recent alerts at https://t.co/AYjchD72xX.

[Lara Seligman @laraseligman]

The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. W @shelbyholliday https://t.co/o7TUgk6B3W

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

The war has shown both Washington and Tehran “that neither government can deliver a knockout blow to the other at an acceptable cost—and that unmanaged hostility has become too costly and perilous,” writes @AliVaez.
https://t.co/Fv7Da5qY45

[POLITICO @politico]

Poll: Trump’s MAGA base is souring on his Iran war https://t.co/VgyWZYNM9T

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

From "help is on the way" to "we will bomb critical infrastructure" over a Strait that wasn't closed before this war began…

[Reuters @Reuters]

Hormuz vessel crossings fall further as security concerns linger https://t.co/eQmTFiXmGK https://t.co/eQmTFiXmGK

[Crisis Group @CrisisGroup]

🗒️NEW ANALYST'S NOTEBOOK | Hamas Elects New Political Chief as It Navigates Crumbling Gaza Ceasefire

@aj_iraqi reflects on Khalil al-Hayya’s election as the head of Hamas’ political bureau and the challenges that await him.

https://t.co/w4Z1gUJJTJ

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

As oil prices rise, Chinese refiners and traders (both private and state-owned) have today offered Middle Eastern barrels they bought a few weeks ago for resale.

Chinese oil imports July 1-20 are running below June average, ~50% below pre-war levels. No sign of pick up yet.

[Iran Nuances @IranNuances]

#Iran's Larak Island was hit by a US missile strike at 14:48 local time, triggering a big explosion.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Donald Trump may hate to hear it, but Barack Obama was right about avoiding “stupid shit” https://t.co/YFOIkZE8a4

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“A stable U.S.-Iranian relationship would eliminate one of the main engines of escalation in the Middle East, reducing the risk that every local conflict turns into a regional war,” writes @AliVaez.
https://t.co/Fv7Da5qY45

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

Follow my Iran Policy Watch newsletter on Substack. Second edition is out now: Timeline, sanctions tracker, and why the U.S.-Iran tensions risk becoming a forever war ⬇️
https://t.co/Ei3osvzQWw

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

💯

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

In short:

1. Deep underground facilities, such as Pickaxe Mountain, are essentially invulnerable to nonnuclear weapons (and, no, the U.S. will NOT use nukes).

2. The U.S. can attack, and perhaps collapse, tunnel entrances, but that isn't a game changer. (13/13)

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

🧵on the essential invulnerability of Pickaxe Mountain. We'll cover Young Penetration's equations, the GBU-57, and the Battle of Yavin.