Alex Kotov

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@McFaul Mike, countries follow same patterns as individuals. Individuals invented sheriff/police. Old sheriff (USA) decided to retire and became impotent thanks to you-know-what. Nobody else wants to be a sheriff. How to form a police when nobody trust each other and UN or NATO?

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@txgermanbre You should be proud of that. He is batshit crazy.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@txgermanbre I agree. But 43% have negative attitude towards ukrainians and 40% towards jews, source:
https://t.co/jicnQcBxQ0

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@Sulkhan To tell you that the help you're asking for will never come unless georgian people complete their homework. That's it.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@Sulkhan It's you don't get what I want to say you! So, someone (West? God?) should do something for fair elections in Georgia? Not citizens of Georgia themselves? What exactly West should do to save Georgia from Russia? Occupy it? Georgia's fate EXCLUSIVELY in hands of its own people!

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@ChombaBupe It's too late - Boeing is already vibe-designing their planes and vibe-builds their parts in shitholes like Russia: https://t.co/AoBiEBzDnS

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@Sulkhan Fight on streets doesn't matter because it represents only small fraction of population. What is matter is voting results. And hard work of elected people on aligning with the west afterwards. These are preconditions for support.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@USWPColby Guys, you're bad at chess. And you're losing.

[Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci]

If Trump is disavowing NATO and breaking an 80 year tradition — something’s wrong.

If Trump is praising Vladimir Putin, whose entire economy is slightly smaller than the state of Texas — something’s wrong.

If Trump is disavowing the 1994 defense agreement where we told Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons and we’d protect them — the agreement that got him impeached in his first term — something is wrong.

He blasts and berates every world leader. Won’t say a single negative word about Putin.

Putin owns him. It’s hard to watch as an American but it’s obvious.

Why does he own him? That’ll probably come out someday.

It’s not just Trump.

Right-leaning podcasters taking money from the Russian government to spout their talking points.

Republicans hanging out in Moscow, repeating the same lines.

The question isn’t whether something exists. It’s what.

[Бианка @BiankaB12]

To understand Russia, you have to think like a Russian. Analysing it through a Western lens will only take you so far.

1) Russia no longer wants this war, but it cannot simply stop it. Because…Pride.

A self-declared “great power” cannot admit defeat - especially not against a country it regards as smaller, weaker and fundamentally inferior. Withdrawal would not merely be seen as a military failure, but as a humiliation and a collapse of Russia’s entire imperial self-image.

2) Russian leadership operates like a mafia hierarchy, built around strongman culture.

If Putin retreats, it will be interpreted as weakness. He will be cannibalised by the very structure he created.

Remember - this is a man obsessed with longevity, who has directed his own daughters towards scientific research and poured enormous resources into extending his own life. He is terrified of death! He will not voluntarily choose an outcome that could threaten his personal survival.

3) Russia has already paid an enormous demographic and economic price.

More than one million Russians - including a disproportionate share of the educated, urban and technically skilled population - have left the country since 2022. Another estimated 1.4 million have been killed, wounded or permanently disabled from the war.

The economy is under severe strain. Inflation is high. Russians queue for hours - and in some cases days - for fuel. Farmers are warning that shortages of diesel and fertiliser could severely disrupt agricultural production, raising the risk of food shortages.

4) Russia is also terrified of what happens when the soldiers come home.

Sex workers in Russia have reportedly described a mass exodus from the industry because returning veterans are exceptionally violent, cruel and sadistic.

The Kremlin has been explicit that it does not want to repeat the aftermath of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, when half a million soldiers returned from a failed war to a collapsing country. Many came home traumatised, brutalised and unable to reintegrate. Organised crime, addiction and social violence surged.

Russia cannot simply stop this war.

What it can do is:

1) Continue the war of attrition and keep losing slowly to Ukraine - at an enormous cost to Ukrainians as well.

2) Intensify its cognitive and political warfare - deepen divisions within Europe, drive a wedge between the EU and the United States, and help bring more Russia-friendly governments to power. governments willing to abandon Ukraine or pressure Kyiv into accepting an unfavourable settlement.

3) Beg Trump to negotiate some form of Korean-style stalemate: a frozen front that gives Russia several years to rebuild its forces, rearm and resume the war later.

4) As an absolute last resort, escalate by attacking the NATO alliance - triggering a conventional war that they lose quickly. Then, and only then, they can say: look, we lost, but we fought the ENTIRE West.

Russia cannot win this war. But it cannot stop it either - not through any conventional or politically survivable route anyway.

P.S.: No, nukes are not an option either.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@Sulkhan Each PAC3 missile is 10M$. 3 Iskanders per day means UA needs 100 PAC3's per month minimum which is 1B$ per month minimum which are serious money even for Washington, Berlin and Tokyo. And to replenish stocks more should be produced. So it's a supply constraint - of MONEY supply.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@TarasKuzio Just stop. Become smarter than that. It's extremely stupid to be right in this dumb historic conflict and lose the country (or economic opportunities for country) due to it.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@pepel_klaasa Yeah, that's exactly the word I should have used: "idealist". Accept that it's the world how it is -- as soon as there are money or power along with genuinely good people there will also be the assholes who want to ride the opportunity. And sometimes it's unclear who is who.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@jeltayalowad @pepel_klaasa Посил у тому що саме цей стан і є нормою серед більшості населення (всюди) а цивільна поведінка вимагає зусиль. Стан не трансформується у масові дії лише через страх покарання і провина популістів лише у тому що вони демонструють приклад що діяти можна. Дії - поки (!) не норма.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@AdrianP_doc Fate of Ukraine is decided by soldiers and engineers of Ukraine and european money for weapons (which are hard to steal because EU pays directly to manufacturers). If Zelensky will remove Fedorov he'll pay for that steep political price (Fedorov as a president will be possible).

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@LeaversvsTaker @txgermanbre "Might of nuclear power" 🤣 Russians are whatever but stupid. They clearly see that their air defense non-existent. Nuclear response will wipe them out. Kids/real-estate/money of russian elites are in EU (read NATO). Russia will NOT attack any NATO country with nuclear.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@kmdfm_ Нажаль ні. Соціологічні дослідження 2025-го року вказували що 35% поляків сприймають українців негативно. Такі ж самі дослідження 2026-го року дають 43%. Тобто майже половина польского суспільства і тренд лише вгору.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@darkwingfella @txgermanbre I don't think so. There are plenty of people who don't realize that leopards will eat their faces until it's too late. But you could be right.

[Alex Kotov @AlKoUA]

@rafwroc @txgermanbre Yes, I know. Huge respect to polish police. Ukraine in general doesn't give a fuck about UPA. And very few know what happened in Volyn. So, it's not about hatred for polish people. And since nobody knows - it's more like if there were crimes - investigate and prosecute who did.