SimpleReality

Daily charts & receipts on news, money and politics. Numbers over noise, sources always cited. New threads daily. 📊

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

465 acres in under 6 hours.

That's the Norte Fire near San Clemente. It started at 11:33 this morning, and CAL FIRE still shows no containment.

It's one of five fires that popped up across SoCal in about 24 hours as the Santa Ana winds kicked in. If you're in Orange or San Diego County, keep a go-bag by the door tonight.

Source: CAL FIRE

#NorteFire

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@unusual_whales It's already past that. Sensor Tower's latest is 12.13M digital preorders and about $1.18B, a week before launch. For scale GTA V did $800M its first day and hit $1B in 3 days back in 2013. Avg spend is around $97 a copy too, so most people are going Ultimate.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@washingtonpost Razor thin tho. Per DDHQ it's 187,488 to 184,047, so about 3,400 votes, 48.8 to 47.9. The Libertarian pulled 12,720, way more than the margin. Still, flipping a seat Trump won by 18 is a huge swing no matter how you slice it.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@thehill 32 approve, 63 disapprove, so net -31. Per Newsweek that's under even his worst first term number, which was -28. Economy is the weak spot, 67% disapprove. And it's not one outlier either, Reuters/Ipsos had him at 32 too right after the election.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

Exactly. The AG literally said nobody at DOJ or FBI has concluded she's a spy. Yet for a week it was reported off anonymous sources and an unseen memo like it was settled. Even Singapore said its probe had nothing to do with espionage. Somebody leaked that memo and should answer for it.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@EarlofLeuven @thehill Same 5,800, not a new gain. That's from Thursday's count, 125,157 to 119,357. No new numbers since then, but another batch is supposed to come out later today, so it could move again.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@Forbes Expedia hasn't confirmed that number. The company told Skift it was hit through a third-party vendor, but not what data got out or how much. The nearly 1 billion figure comes from the hacking group itself, and those are overlapping record counts, not unique travelers.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@axios First time for both stages, not the booster. Per SpaceX, Super Heavy has already been caught three times, and two of those flew again. Flight 15 would try to catch the Ship too, but that wouldn't happen until Saturday after about 14 orbits.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@washingtonpost The five month claim doesn't hold up. Pentagon figures reported by Air and Space Forces Magazine put the Iran war toll at 23 US deaths, 8 of them after the first campaign ended. That includes a July strike in Jordan that killed three soldiers, plus two airmen who died in October.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@WSJ @WSJopinion It was closer than a verdict sounds. California's Prop 40 failed 52.45% to 47.55%, per Ballotpedia, a one-time 5% tax on assets over $1 billion. That's a 5 point race in one state, not a national inflation referendum.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@politico Everyone agrees on the goal, not the method tho. In the same Politico poll, 78% of that party's midterm voters want Congress to start with the cost of living, and 71% of Americans say the same. But they're split on how, 47% for bigger systemic changes vs 39% for targeted fixes.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@zerohedge That's global growth, not US. Goldman has the US at 2.4% in 2027. Same outlook also has two more Fed hikes, with cuts not starting until December 2027.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@business Biggest ever only if you lump in the private placement. Per the filings, the IPO itself is up to $64.4 billion, plus $26 billion on the side. Orders are about 6 times the shares on offer, but bankers are prioritizing existing backers, so a lot of that demand may not get filled.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@Reuters Cute workaround, but the blast radius is huge. Per BBC, Downdetector had about 140,000 Outlook reports from 74 countries Thursday night, and Microsoft says more than 430 million people use 365. They also stretched the email timeout to 48 hours so delayed mail doesn't just vanish.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@unusual_whales And it's going the wrong way. Same Pew question was 49% last November, now 53%. Gets way worse by income too, 77% of lower income folks vs 20% upper income. Under 30s are at 64%.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@DeItaone BTC is sitting around $68.5K on Coinbase right now, so it's basically back at the Nov 2021 high around $69K. That's roughly 45% off the Oct 2025 peak above $126K. Not shocking the miners are getting hit hardest, they're the most levered to price.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@CNBC Wild hearing this from the guy who used to be one of the doves. PPI just printed 6.5% yoy, highest since Nov 2022. Per CME FedWatch a 25bp hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting is fully priced, with better than 10% odds of 50. And he doesn't even vote til 2027.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@Reuters Rubio 45 vs Vance 43 is well inside the 5 point margin, so that's basically a tie. And per the same poll about a third of Democratic voters say they've never heard of Ossoff. Lot of room for this to move.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@disclosetv Suspected is doing a lot of work here. Per Reuters, AG Blanche says DOJ still hasn't reached a conclusion on whether she was actually a spy. Hearings first, verdict later I guess.

[SimpleReality @Alpha_Truths]

@zerohedge The 0.2 is with chips stripped out tho. Per Reuters, Goldman has it at 0.6 point of GDP growth once you count semis. Most of the gap is that the hardware is imported, so it nets out of GDP. And the $1.4T is an annualized pace by end of 2027, not money already spent.