Next Friday is a Quad Witching day. Happens 4 times each year and is often a volatile day followed by a reversal of some sort next week.
June 20th - Red day that trapped longs, shorts piled, then giant reversal Monday and gap up Tuesday
March 21st - Shorts piled, gap up Monday
What happens when debt catches up with the leveraged BTC market?
@VinnyLingham outlines a scenario where firms start dumping assets, prices plunge below cost, and nobody wants to sell, but they have to.
Dive into the full interview with host @kurtwuckertjr here: https://t.co/qP2ICwmMDo
Altcoins I've been watching and bidding.
1. $AAVE
It has been on my radar since hitting the macro mid-point. I was only interested in whether we revisited the range low zone again.
Initial bids were after hitting the range low demand, and second bids were right at the range lows (local lows down move).
Kinda expecting more ranging here between this level (ish) and the range low.
https://t.co/o0fm1Ix5UG
2. $HYPE
Initially, I bought the reclaim after the deviation in the blue, sold half at the range low retest from below, and bought back partially after reclaiming the range low again.
I will take profit if we find acceptance below again. For now, targeting the mid and upper range for the initial profit zone.
If we slip again below the range low, I'll look for another setup at the lows or after another reclaim.
Not adding here. https://t.co/YFGULeTv7a
3. $CRV
One of my favorite higher time frame accumulation charts to build a swing spot position.
Will drop my plan here: https://t.co/fvS6C9PqJd
4. ETH long plan posted earlier
5. SOL
Still interested in SOL, even though I've cut my remainder after breaking the market structure. The structure still looks bad, expecting more downside, and the time needed to fix this chart. Overall, I wonder if the whole market needs more ranging/chopping as well? idk I'm sidelined here.
$LAC - First of multiple entries. Looking at longer term narratives and trades like energy. Lithium is one of those sub sectors and with China curbing exports and one of the largest mines being built I'll take the 2x slow grind play here. Thackers Pass already under way.
@IncomeSharks Hi @IncomeSharks what are your thoughts on $QF? I have a small piece, what do you think of the team, since right now everything is on the paper
Heads up, crypto investors! The IRS is making BIG changes starting Jan 1, 2025, and if you don’t prep now, you could pay more in taxes or face penalties.
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I'm adding $oGPU to my AI list. Its a highly scalable GPU network solution. Expecting this to do nicely during AI season. Chart already looking pretty good
I talk about funding all the time, so it's about time I explain it for you guys.
Like + Bookmark this to come back to it later. (repost it if you want bonus points :) )
To monitor funding: https://t.co/NEniatwxBi
Funding is a peer to peer mechanism to keep the price of the perpertual future price close to the spot price.
In traditional finance, futures trading is used in commodity trading to lock in prices to hedge against unforeseen problems and they usually have a date that you have to close the trade by. (quarterly is the most common.)
In crypto, 'futures' are perpetual, meaning there is no end date that you have to close the trade and they can stay open indefinitely, but the way that they work is through this peer to peer funding mechanism. (the exchange only makes money on market buys/sells (a taker fee) and NOT on the perp trading funding.
It's a ratio of longs to shorts and when the ratio of longs is higher, they pay funding (positive in red) to the short traders and when the ratio of shorts is higher, they pay a funding fee (negative in green) to the long traders.
In parabolic bull markets, this funding rate can get very extreme as long traders are a much higher ratio and on leverage, but this sets up for a 'long liquidation' and the same is also true when shorts get over confident they set themselves up with a 'short squeeze' to the upside.
A neutral funding rate is .01.
Funding is paid every 8 hours on some exchanges and every 24 hour hours on other exchanges.
The higher the funding rate, the more likely a leverage flush is, because leverage traders can't sustain the constant fees unless price is moving to cover the cost.
A common practice in bull markets is to take a 1:1 delta neutral hedge where you buy X amount in spot and short X amount on perpetual futures. This allows you to be hedged where you collect the funding rate, which can get anywhere from 20-70% per year in returns and is the basis of Ethena's protocol.
Currently, funding is COMPLETELY flat, which is great for bulls if we can continue our march higher. It means that we won't see another leverage reset for a while and it allows prices to continue to grind higher.
In fact, some of our favorite assets are starting to trend negative, meaning there are more shorts than longs, which means that we've got fuel to move higher if we can break key resistances.
Overall, use funding as a metric for a traffic light. The more red = the more likely a sell off is coming. Usually this ranges from .7-.9% in daily funding.
Sometimes, funding can be skewed with VC unlocks coming on a coin where someone knows big selling is coming so they hedge out their position with a big short and funding can be negative for a while until the selling is completed. (this is only learned with experience.)
Based on past cycles, these are the #Bitcoin cycle top predictions.
The two most probable outcomes based on this data imo are either:
• A May/June 2025 top (from cycle bottom), or
• An August/September 2025 top (from halving & ATH break)
When do you think we'll top?