Amelia Pavlenko

🇬🇧 Financial Analyst 12Y in Market
📶 Share Daily Trading Analysis & Signals
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Forex

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

Market Notice 🗓️

Both Chinese and US major markets will close early today due to public holidays.

Please adjust your positions and manage risk accordingly

#XAU #XAG

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

US-Iran first-round talks (originally June 19) postponed due to Israel airstrikes on Lebanon

Technically: Rapid decline with weak low-end rebounds signals sustained bearish pressure

- Primary sell zone: 4171 — rejection here confirms weak downtrend

- Critical level: 4232 — must not break above. Any failure to reclaim bearish structure intact

All rebounds capped below 4232 are sell-the-ripple opportunities

Downside supports: 4120 / 4052

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

US-Iran first-round talks (originally June 19) postponed due to Israel airstrikes on Lebanon

Technically: Rapid decline with weak low-end rebounds signals sustained bearish pressure

- Primary sell zone: 4171 — rejection here confirms weak downtrend

- Critical level: 4232 — must not break above. Any failure to reclaim bearish structure intact

All rebounds capped below 4232 are sell-the-ripple opportunities

Downside supports: 4120 / 4052

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold under pressure from the Fed’s slightly hawkish tone, triggering an extreme roller-coaster move that perfectly filled 4218 gap mentioned earlier.

Price has now rebounded to 4290–4300 zone

- Holding above keeps the rebound alive, with targets 4363–82 resistance

- Key support: 4281

Break below would expose 4272-55
#Fed #FOMC

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD
4363 tested as expected and faced selling pressure

Key points to watch: 📈📉

1. Higher highs and lows forming, but MACD divergences are increasing

* Stay cautious of a sudden sharp correction
* Repair zone: 4280–18 gap

Only after divergences are resolved can we expect a stronger rebound

2. US-Iran deal influence remains dominant
Unless gold forces a strong volume breakout (e.g. to 4420 or higher), a corrective move to clear divergences is likely
#IranWar‌ #PeaceTalks

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and projections will be released at 19 London time, followed by the first press conference held by the new Chair, Kevin Warsh.

While keeping interest rates unchanged is virtually certain, there is significant uncertainty surrounding Warsh's initial statement, the "dot plot," and forward guidance. The debate over whether to cut or raise rates is intensifying.

US retail sales data for May. Market volatility is likely to be significant; please be mindful of the associated risks.
#Fed #FOMC #GOLD #Oil

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

The market awaits Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC appearance
Price tight range between 4363–05, with highs and lows converging

Key level to watch: 4305 (recent correction low)

- Holding above keeps bullish structure intact and supports dip-buying intraday
- Resistance at 4355 clear break opens path to 4376–4427

Final defense: 4281
- Break below would likely trigger gap-fill toward 4260–18
#FOMC #Fed

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

The market awaits Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC appearance
Price tight range between 4363–05, with highs and lows converging

Key level to watch: 4305 (recent correction low)

- Holding above keeps bullish structure intact and supports dip-buying intraday
- Resistance at 4355 clear break opens path to 4376–4427

Final defense: 4281
- Break below would likely trigger gap-fill toward 4260–18
#FOMC #Fed

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Currently in a post-uptrend correction phase

Key support to watch today: 4306

- Holds above in Europe and rebounds to stabilize above 4320

The correction is likely over and bulls remain in control.

- Break below would deepen the correction

Increasing the chance of filling the prior gap and testing 4260–18

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAGUSD #Silver

Silver is moving in line with gold.

Overnight surge and pullback, followed by weak consolidation in Asia that exactly tested the 69 role-reversal support.

European session stabilized with consecutive green candles. US session: Room for another leg higher.

Resistance: 72–73
Channel support: shifted up to 68.9
Gap fill below remains possible

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Currently in a post-uptrend correction phase

Key support to watch today: 4306

- Holds above in Europe and rebounds to stabilize above 4320

The correction is likely over and bulls remain in control.

- Break below would deepen the correction

Increasing the chance of filling the prior gap and testing 4260–18

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD
4363 tested as expected and faced selling pressure

Key points to watch: 📈📉

1. Higher highs and lows forming, but MACD divergences are increasing

* Stay cautious of a sudden sharp correction
* Repair zone: 4280–18 gap

Only after divergences are resolved can we expect a stronger rebound

2. US-Iran deal influence remains dominant
Unless gold forces a strong volume breakout (e.g. to 4420 or higher), a corrective move to clear divergences is likely
#IranWar‌ #PeaceTalks

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD
4363 tested as expected and faced selling pressure

Key points to watch: 📈📉

1. Higher highs and lows forming, but MACD divergences are increasing

* Stay cautious of a sudden sharp correction
* Repair zone: 4280–18 gap

Only after divergences are resolved can we expect a stronger rebound

2. US-Iran deal influence remains dominant
Unless gold forces a strong volume breakout (e.g. to 4420 or higher), a corrective move to clear divergences is likely
#IranWar‌ #PeaceTalks

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold gapped higher as expected after the US-Iran peace agreement

Key levels to watch:

- 4281 (pullback low): Holding here confirms strong bullish momentum and paves the way to test 4363 soon

- 4260 (today gap low): A break below would trigger gap-fill support 4208

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

This Week’s Key Events 🗓️

Wednesday:
- US Retail Sales MoM
- Fed Rate Decision
- FOMC Meeting

This will be new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting and public appearance.

Will we hear like Powell’s signature opening remarks? Lol 😂
#Fed #FOMC #XAUUSD #GOLD

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold gapped higher as expected after the US-Iran peace agreement

Key levels to watch:

- 4281 (pullback low): Holding here confirms strong bullish momentum and paves the way to test 4363 soon

- 4260 (today gap low): A break below would trigger gap-fill support 4208

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

Friday price action confirmed a reversal with a clear higher low

A — Breakout
4H close above 4363 confirms buyer control
Enter on pullback to 4309 or on volume-backed continuation.

B — Pullback
Price retraces into 4280–18 gap, holds, and forms a bullish 4H reversal candle. Enter after candle close.

Targets:
- TP1: 4377 (0.618 Fib + May monthly low zone)
- TP2: 4473 (0.786 Fib + origin of June crash)

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold gapped higher as expected after the US-Iran peace agreement

Key levels to watch:

- 4281 (pullback low): Holding here confirms strong bullish momentum and paves the way to test 4363 soon

- 4260 (today gap low): A break below would trigger gap-fill support 4208

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold’s Friday rebound is gradually stabilizing

Next week’s direction will hinge on the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding

If the deal is successfully signed, a strong gap-up and bullish continuation becomes the most likely scenario

Key Levels:
- 4171 — Hold for upside continuation
- Break and hold above 4246 to unlock further gains
- Next resistance 4281 / 4363

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold’s Friday rebound is gradually stabilizing

Next week’s direction will hinge on the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding

If the deal is successfully signed, a strong gap-up and bullish continuation becomes the most likely scenario

Key Levels:
- 4171 — Hold for upside continuation
- Break and hold above 4246 to unlock further gains
- Next resistance 4281 / 4363

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Trump “peace signal” is in play — hold today’s low is critical

Currently testing support 4170 (First long opportunity here) 📈

Reclaim 4210 targets 4246, then acceleration toward 4275–85

Note: Breakout moves tend to be volatile with liquidity sweeps

Backup plan: Support at 4130 — hold here for another leg toward 4246

Break below 4130 risks a fresh low 4023

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Trump “peace signal” is in play — hold today’s low is critical

Currently testing support 4170 (First long opportunity here) 📈

Reclaim 4210 targets 4246, then acceleration toward 4275–85

Note: Breakout moves tend to be volatile with liquidity sweeps

Backup plan: Support at 4130 — hold here for another leg toward 4246

Break below 4130 risks a fresh low 4023

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold pulled back, found support near 4015, and rebounded
Currently facing resistance at 4136–40

- If price reclaims and holds above 4145, expect more rebound
First targets: FVG upper edge 4181–86, then previous high at 4222

- However, if it rallies then falls back below 4000 it would confirm the third leg down
Next support zone: 3930–20, with potential to retest 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold surged on fresh fundamentals and has now reached the previous high at 4222

Short-term price is likely to enter consolidation

Key support to watch: 4181–86

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold pulled back, found support near 4015, and rebounded
Currently facing resistance at 4136–40

- If price reclaims and holds above 4145, expect more rebound
First targets: FVG upper edge 4181–86, then previous high at 4222

- However, if it rallies then falls back below 4000 it would confirm the third leg down
Next support zone: 3930–20, with potential to retest 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

US media: Iran has submitted the latest draft of the agreement to Qatar mediators.

Trump: “Cancelled tonight’s strike on Iran. Signing time and location will be announced shortly.”

Gold is taking off.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Silver

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold pulled back, found support near 4015, and rebounded
Currently facing resistance at 4136–40

- If price reclaims and holds above 4145, expect more rebound
First targets: FVG upper edge 4181–86, then previous high at 4222

- However, if it rallies then falls back below 4000 it would confirm the third leg down
Next support zone: 3930–20, with potential to retest 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD
US Initial Jobless Claims (week of June 6), May PPI MoM & YoY release in 5 minutes. Expect sharp volatility in gold, silver, and oil. Stay alert.

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold pulled back, found support near 4015, and rebounded
Currently facing resistance at 4136–40

- If price reclaims and holds above 4145, expect more rebound
First targets: FVG upper edge 4181–86, then previous high at 4222

- However, if it rallies then falls back below 4000 it would confirm the third leg down
Next support zone: 3930–20, with potential to retest 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold pulled back, found support near 4015, and rebounded
Currently facing resistance at 4136–40

- If price reclaims and holds above 4145, expect more rebound
First targets: FVG upper edge 4181–86, then previous high at 4222

- However, if it rallies then falls back below 4000 it would confirm the third leg down
Next support zone: 3930–20, with potential to retest 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold remains under heavy pressure

Short-term price has broken below the March low 4098

MACD and volume-price action confirm bears still hold strong momentum

Next key supports:
- Psychological 4000
- Origin of the bull market 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Gold remains under heavy pressure

Short-term price has broken below the March low 4098

MACD and volume-price action confirm bears still hold strong momentum

Next key supports:
- Psychological 4000
- Origin of the bull market 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Developing the Harmonic Bat pattern exactly as anticipated

Price found temporary support around 4170

We may see brief short-term consolidation as buyers step in

First bullish signal: Daily close above 4363 📈
- Successful hold would open the path toward 4515–95

Critical bull defense line: 4098📉
Sustained break below would confirm downtrend continuation
Potentially targeting the origin of this bull market at 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD
US May CPI data drops https://t.co/iwp4O3UYVI expects headline YoY to rebound into the 4% range.After strong NFP, hotter inflation could further boost Fed hike expectations, triggering sharp volatility in gold, silver, and oil.
Stay tuned.

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Developing the Harmonic Bat pattern exactly as anticipated

Price found temporary support around 4170

We may see brief short-term consolidation as buyers step in

First bullish signal: Daily close above 4363 📈
- Successful hold would open the path toward 4515–95

Critical bull defense line: 4098📉
Sustained break below would confirm downtrend continuation
Potentially targeting the origin of this bull market at 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Developing the Harmonic Bat pattern exactly as anticipated

Price found temporary support around 4170

We may see brief short-term consolidation as buyers step in

First bullish signal: Daily close above 4363 📈
- Successful hold would open the path toward 4515–95

Critical bull defense line: 4098📉
Sustained break below would confirm downtrend continuation
Potentially targeting the origin of this bull market at 3886

[Amelia Pavlenko @AmeliaCFA_]

#XAUUSD #GOLD

Since ATH $5598, gold has now printed its 10th consecutive lower high

The downtrend remains fully intact and is accelerating

Any rebound that stalls at $4366 or below will form a clear 4H bearish reversal candle

Bears are regrouping at former support (now resistance)

Alternative trigger: Daily close below $4311 on strong volume

Expected path: Continuation toward the harmonic Bat pattern bottom at 4170