ASSAY closed a run on Robinhood Chain
71 event contracts, +2.68% average, one position alone hit +19%
tried reading the same markets manually for a week - came out flat
> I'd wait for the crowd to be obviously wrong before touching a longshot - ASSAY buys the second logit space shows the gap, coinflip price or not
> too disciplined to be reckless - quarter-Kelly on every position, no exceptions
> that +19% position sat at 22¢, the kind of call I'd have skipped as "not enough edge"
stopped waiting for obvious mispricing, started trusting the recalibration at any price
a third of all runs still come back negative - that's in the backtest, not hidden
6 agents, one job each, live on Robinhood Chain
check the run yourself: https://t.co/Z76BAyfOor
Robinhood event contracts are just a crowd pricing outcomes - and the crowd is wrong exactly often enough to profit off it
longshots overpriced, favorites underpriced - predictable, documented, exploitable.
built assay to find that gap, live on Robinhood Chain
> 6 agents, each one job - find the market, price the real probability, size the bet, veto the bad calls
> quarter-Kelly sizing so one miss doesn't wipe the account
> risk agent rejects almost everything and tells you why
no fake smooth curve - backtest shows +2.68% average per run, a third came back negative
open source, 22 tests, zero hidden numbers
live now: https://t.co/OgveFFli8n
bookmark before the edge gets priced out
How does ASSAY estimate the odds?
q = sigmoid(logit(price) × k)
https://t.co/iKUOuf2nix
It recalibrates the crowd price in logit space - pulling longshots down and favorites up.
One transparent parameter - No black box
An AI hedge-fund desk for event contracts on Robinhood Chain: estimates odds, sizes positions, and manages risk.
Still running 6 agents through $ASSAY
Everything is still working smoothly
https://t.co/dboVJHXpxx
Check out the GitHub, test it yourself, make a clone
Keep building
ASSAY is alive on Robinhood Chain!
$ASSAY
CA: 0x96d2b15b35f43e0113a362b6d522a27a6a9d2138
AI hedge-fund desk for event contracts on Robinhood Chain. Estimates odds, sizes positions and manages risk
Open source, non-custodial, runs on your own laptop. No key ever leaves it.