Andrew M. Fischer

Prof at @issnl Chair of @DevandChg #devecon #demography #socialpolicy #Tibet western #China. Wrote #povertyasideology & other stuff.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

The @DevandChg 2024 forum issue on the political economy of global #reparations is just out, with an amazing line up of leading thinkers on this issue. A must read, especially with current discussions about this at #Commonwealth Summit.

https://t.co/fulwj0gLUU

See thread🔽

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@MarionOuma @ryancbriggs Everything that goes up must come down at one point!

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@joefrancis505 Thanks for the advice. I was waiting and planning to leap frog.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@toddpmarek Indeed, Palden Gyal’s work is very interesting.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@adam_tooze @IsabellaMWeber Social protection, in the Polanyian sense of society’s impulse to protect itself from dislocation, which he used to explain both the rise of fascism as well as socialism (and welfare states).

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@YanLian31677392 The fundamental problem is the 3rd para: to accommodate deficit, US businesses move manufacturing offshore, but the deficit emerged over decades because of precisely this. Cart before the horse.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@YanLian31677392 I’ll read, but pre-empting, I’m usually skeptical of demographic explanations of savings because they remain focused on hshlds, hence marginal influence at best. As we both argue, need to always consider macro national savings driven by investment.

[Kyang Thang རྐྱང་ཐང་ @Kyangs_Thang]

1) Understandably many are confused where so much water came from with no lakes. We need to understand the scale of this. 🧵

> The glacier face that collapsed is ~1.5 kms wide & 1.4 kms deep. That height alone is nearly twice that of Burj Khalifa.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

The link: https://t.co/3XsYxkmc6b

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

To all the pro-natalist neo-traditional patriarchs out there, see a great new study showing how, in fact, women's employment in the 21st century has become – similar to men – a *prerequisite* for childbearing in an increasing number of countries.

(see link in next post)

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

The once-strongly -ve association has become statistically insignif in the 2000s & 2010s & even turned +ve in the Nordics, parts of Western Europe (FR, BE, & NL) & CEE. This shift has occurred across all country clusters, except for DE & S Euro group, where it remained negative.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I was thrilled to learn about the brand-new Amartya Sen Economics Prize for the Best Young Latin American and Caribbean Economist:

https://t.co/irdlfCQmvc

A wonderful initiative that will help economics across the region.

I am also glad to see the Caribbean included. We all know the remarkable crop of economists from countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, and Colombia. We see far fewer from the Caribbean. I have written before about my interest in the area, and nothing would please me more than a new cohort of strong economists from the Dominican Republic, Barbados, or the Bahamas (just to mention a few examples).

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

No surprise that X suppressed this post.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

This is so daft. Birth rates were generally high precisely because death rates were also very high, e.g., it's estimated that half of children died before 10 years old in ancient Rome. This was the biggest factor regulating pop change. Is this the world he wants to go back to?

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@JesusFerna7026 @adbus_contexto @elonmusk @paulg Interesting. My understanding of the VS data in Colombia is that there is underreporting in the more remote rural areas, especially in conflict zones, etc. But as you say, they must have taken that into consideration.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@JesusFerna7026 @adbus_contexto @elonmusk @paulg In any case, that explains where that other data came from. UN Population is just an aggregator of national data in these cases.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@JesusFerna7026 @adbus_contexto @elonmusk @paulg Okay, I see this now. Thanks for the clarification.

But as noted, these are from the vital statistics. What are the chances of underreporting births in recent VS data? I'm generally interested to know what you found in your recent discussions with them...

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@JesusFerna7026 @adbus_contexto @elonmusk @paulg But the numbers are the same in the latest DANE data, e.g., https://t.co/pRlpFfPx8D

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

This is so daft. Birth rates were generally high precisely because death rates were also very high, e.g., it's estimated that half of children died before 10 years old in ancient Rome. This was the biggest factor regulating pop change. Is this the world he wants to go back to?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Actually, this has happened in every civilization when there was both an extended period of prosperity and no perceived outside threat.

The ancient Romans discussed their fertility crisis hundreds of times in the Senate and tried many times to fix it with tax incentives and even punishment, but to no avail.

[Andrew M. Fischer @AndrewM_Fischer]

@paulg "The demographic transition in general, underway since the 19th century, has no historical precedent."

— Every demographer writing about this for the last 80 years.