@N0tAnthonyDavis@NateSilver538 I think he has a measure of newsworthy events measured by full page spreads. More of those increase uncertainty, favouring the underdog slightly. That's the factually correct answer. In practice, his model doesn't know about wars in the Middle East.
@ThamesPathNT@jeremysaul2@RiverThames From memory, the only flooding from Bray to Hammersmith last Thursday and Friday was by the railway bridge just Noth of Windsor Home Park. But waters were due to rise. There was a spot just after Chrrtsey bridge that I thought was close to flooding. After Teddington, it's tidal.
@JohnMTippetts@ThamesPathNT Rest, John, rest! More seriously, I bit off more than I could chew this time. Glad I found I have those reserves of stubbornness, but if I come back in two years it is likely to be just to run London to Oxford at an easier pace. The Thames Path should be savored not endured.
Finished my cross-England 9 day 280 mile Severn-North Sea run/walk/wade. Thanks as ever to the amazing volunteers who maintain the @ThamesPathNT. Seeing the frequent markers and signposts kept me grounded in why this is such a special journey through the heart of England.
Day 9 of #ThamesPath#SourcetoSea. An amazing end to my adventure. I said when I set out last Saturday I would need good luck and resilience and I have needed both. I was blessed with amazing weather and had to keep pushing on despite an ankle flare up and blisters. So worth it!
Hail, two days of record-breaking rain in Oxford, flooding along the path and ferries all cancelled in consequence, yet more rain and a tree-uprooring storm all added to the difficulty. The weather gods had their fun. I like to think I had the last laugh. I finished.
Too tired, wet and foot sore to enjoy this year. But I surprised myself each day from Thursday onwards by setting off and not stopping till I finished. And eventually I could stop because I had finished all 280 miles.
Finished day 8 of Severn to North Sea. 31 miles, 258 since last Saturday. First day without rain or floods. Was seriously contemplating stopping early, at the end of the main Path but my plastered up feet were able to keep moving, so headed out on the Extension, to Gravesend.
@JohnMTippetts@ThamesPathNT Thanks John. Have to admit that after picking up fresh blisters yesterday I was thinking this morning of calling it a day at the Woolwich end of the Path, but I seem to have found myself out on the extension heading to Gravesend.
Day 7 of my run/walk/wade along the Severn and @ThamesPathNT. 35 miles to Greenwich, 227 in total since Saturday. Lowlight five hours more rain. Highlight walking with my wife. Believe I must have passed London landmarks but if it's not family or finish, I'm oblivious by now.
Made it to Marlow. 30 more miles and 160 in total over the last five days. This is no longer a run but, as my sis-in-law said, a run/walk/wade triathlon. At least I was able to live tweet the wading sections as a public service. ๐
Day six of my Severn to North Sea attempt. 32 miles, 192 in total since Saturday. About 10 miles of that in dry shoes. Today's joy was a storm that blew down branches and a tree near Staines. Have had enough of the weather gods - the joke has long since worn thin.
@ThamesPathNT Yes. No ferry was a disappointment! No wading today, though had to climb a fence or two to achieve that. Nasty storm that took down branches and a tree near Staines. Will send a fuller tweet later.