BANK OF AMERICA SEES THREE FED HIKES
Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, shifting from its prior view of no changes. The bank cites stronger economic data and a more hawkish Fed tone focused on inflation under new chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are pricing higher yields, though most investors still expect fewer hikes.
IRAN WARNS OF CONSEQUENCES FOR LEBANON CEASEFIRE BREACHES
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Monday that the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. covers all fronts, including Lebanon, after Israel ordered strikes on Hezbollah-linked areas in southern Beirut.
In a post on X, Araqchi warned that any violation on one front would be considered a breach of the entire ceasefire and said the U.S. and Israel would be responsible for the consequences.
BREAKING: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued an injunction blocking enforcement of California’s new law that requires ICE agents to unmask and wear visible ID, arguing it violates the Supremacy Clause because it “attempts to directly regulate the United States in its performance of
governmental functions.”
California is enjoined from enforcing the law, pending appeal. Big win for the Trump administration & U.S. DOJ.
IRAN HALTS GAS TO TURKEY AFTER STRIKE
Iran has stopped gas exports to Turkey following an Israeli strike on the South Pars field.
Turkey relied on Iran for about 14% of its gas but continues to receive supplies from Russia and Azerbaijan, with storage reserves available. The duration of the halt is unclear.
The strike—and Iran’s retaliation on regional energy sites—has pushed European gas prices sharply higher, still around 66% above pre-war levels.
South Pars is critical to Iran’s energy system, and the disruption highlights growing risks to regional supply.
This will hurt Micron $MU even more tomorrow
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix selected as sole suppliers of HBM4 for Nvidia's Vera Rubin
Micron has been excluded after failing to meet Nvidia's data transfer speed requirements for Vera Rubin
https://t.co/OgoGrAGOqa
CBO FORECASTS SOARING U.S. DEFICITS AND DEBT
The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. budget deficit will hit $3.115 trillion (6.7% of GDP) by FY2036, averaging 6.1% annually from FY2027–2036. FY2026 is expected at $1.853 trillion, unchanged from FY2025 as a share of GDP (5.8%).
Key drivers include the 2025 Republican tax cuts (+$4.7 trillion over 10 years) and reduced immigration (+$0.5 trillion), partly offset by tariffs (+$3 trillion). Cumulative deficits from FY2027–2036 could reach $24.4 trillion.
Economic growth is forecast at 2.2% in 2026, averaging 1.8% through 2036. Public debt may hit 120% of GDP by FY2036, surpassing the post-WWII peak of 106% in FY2030
GOLDMAN EXPECTS DECEMBER JOBS REPORT TO BE STRONGER THAN CONSENSUS
Goldman Sachs forecasts December payrolls up 70,000, above the 54,000 consensus, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.5%. Private sector job growth remains moderate, construction may slow, and government payrolls could drop 5,000 due to federal furlough adjustments
We had our first every book signing and presentation earlier today at the Croton Free Library's Celebration of Local Authors in Croton-on-Hudson, NY! Very exciting day and lots of fun! Also, we got to meet several other interesting writers. Special thanks to @CrotonLibrary
Thanks to CNBC for offering a sneak peek of The High End, a collaboration between @BarneysNY and GTI’s @beboe brand. The High End is now open at the Barneys Beverly Hills flagship store -- check it out in this clip. https://t.co/xpPOH2mOQl