AngloNippon Politics

Statistics based election analysis, focused mainly on UK and Japan 🇬🇧🇯🇵 | Ba Politics & IR | 🐧

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Is Takaichi's approval 50% (Mainichi) or 66% (Nikkei) ?

I modelled out the polls weighed by sample size and the pollsters past accuracy, suggesting the answer is ~60%.

Interestingly, although still popular, she has seen a constant rate of declining popularity since becoming PM.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Niigata gubernatorial election result:
🟩Hideyo Hanazumi 554,012 (66.9%)
🟦Ryugo Tsuchida 230,721 (27.9%)
🟪Satoshi Annaka 43,089 (5.2%)

Endorsements:
Hanazumi: LDP, JIP, DPFP, KMT
Tsuchida: CDPJ, SDP, JCP

Incumbent Hanazumi re-elected

[Richard @gaijinthoughts]

🇯🇵 Japanese Politics Explained

Far Left
🚩 Reiwa
🚩 JCP

Left
🔴 SDP

Center Left
🟠 CRA

Center Right
🟡 LDP (Parts)
🟡 DPFP
🟡 Ishin

Right
🔵 LDP (Parts)

Far Right
⚫️ LDP (Parts)
⚫️ Sanseito
⚫️ CPJ
⚫️ Tax Cut Japan • Yukoku Alliance

Single Issue:
🟢 Team Mirai
🟢 NHK

[Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics]

Damn. The Ishin no Kai group in the Osaka City Council comes out swinging against Governor Yoshimura after he proposed the whole prefecture votes on the proposal to dismantle the city of Osaka.

'It's wrong for the whole prefecture to vote on matters that only affect the city'.

[由仁アリン Arin Yuni @Arin_Yumi]

The supermajority is even more impressive when you look at it like this

[泉健太🌏️京都3区・中道改革連合 @izmkenta]

なぜ俺に回っ��くるのか。
上はどう考えているのか。

[あまりす @kokuminritetu]

【日野市議会議員選挙】開票終了

[由仁アリン Arin Yuni @Arin_Yumi]

The saddest part of every election cycle is watching incumbents who lost reelection pack up their offices in the National Diet. It’s hard not to feel a little sympathy even if you don't agree with them politically 😭

[Richard @gaijinthoughts]

🚨

Ogawa Junya has been elected leader of the Centrist Reform Alliance, defeating Shina Takeshi by a vote of 27–22.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Turnout was 56.3% up 21.4%
Date: Feb 8

Arichika only won her home City of Yanai by 18% (+3k).

Between Arichika and Muraoka they split the Conservatives vote in a prefecture the LDP won 47.1% of the PR vote.

The highest LDP % of any prefecture in the 2026 election.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Yamaguchi Prefectural Gubernatorial election result
🟦村岡　嗣政 414,839 (69.1%)
🟥有近　眞知子 156,398 (26.1%)
🟨大久保　雅子 28,997 (4.8%)

Prefectural endorsements:
Muraoka: LDP, DPFP, KMT
Arichika: LDP members (partial)
Okubo: JCP, SDP

Incumbent Muraoka re-elected.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Incumbent Muraoka won comfortably winning the biggest cities in the prefecture by large margins.
Shimonoseki by 51% (+53k)
Yamaguchi by 42% (+35k)
Ube by 53% (+37k)

Arichika (ex-LDP) performed best in the eastern area from where she gained some LDP members endorsements.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Turnout was 57.3% up 9.4%
Date: Feb 8

Oishi did well in the Northern Area and Outer Islands winning the 2nd largest city of Sasebo by 9% (+9k).

However he was unable to overcome Hirata's advantage in the more populous south, in which Hirata won Nagasaki city by 16% (+30k).

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

Nagasaki Prefectural Gubernatorial election result
🟩平田　研 287,134 (48.3%)
🟦大石　賢吾 280,346 (47.2%)
🟪筒井　涼介 26,390 (4.4%)

Endorsements:
Hirata: DPFP, CDPJ, LDP prefectural chapter
Oishi: LDP lawmakers (partial)
Tsutsui: JCP

Hirata defeats incumbent Oishi.

[世論分析と選挙情勢予測 @senkyoyosou]

首都圏の、自民中道に次ぐ比例第三党マップ。
（中道が2位以内に入っていない一部の地域は比例第二党を表示しています)

黄色→国民民主党
水色→チームみらい
橙色→参政党
紫色→共産党
桃色→れいわ新選組

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

After yesterday's results there are now effectively 2.06 parties within the Diet in terms of seats, the lowest since 1960. The closer to 1 the closer to a single party monopoly.

However the electorate is still very fragmented. With the effective number of electoral parties at 5.

[由仁アリン Arin Yuni @Arin_Yumi]

The CRA will hold a leadership election on February 13 to elect a new party leader after the resignations of Noda and Saito.

[Japanese Politics 🇯🇵🗾⛩️ @Nihonpolitics]

After 20 terms in the Diet, a record in postwar Japan, being a member of the Lower House since 1969 when he started as an aide to LDP PM Tanaka Kakuei, shadow shogun Ozawa Ichiro lost his seat today and won’t be coming back for a new term.

Farewell. @ozawa_jimusho

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

The LDP did not stand enough candidates in Tokyo (they assumed they wouldn’t win EVERY seat).

Therefore they will miss out on some seats. The CRA will win more seats in Tokyo via PR than the LDP.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

@ProfKukuiLVR I agree, I just don’t know who within the CRA can mobilise anywhere near the support needed to oppose Takaichi.

At least Tamaki could improve their position amongst young voters.

[AngloNippon Politics @AngloNippon]

I never believed Tamaki when he talked about becoming the official opposition.

However the DPFP still won 8 SMD seats.
The CRA will only win between 6 and 8 (probably 6 or 7)

The DPFP have performed far closer to their expectations than the CRA have.