mark dickinson

former diplomat

[Larry the Cat @Number10cat]

If rumours are to be believed I'll be living with a seventh different Prime Minister shortly. If it carries on like this I'm going to stop making the effort to learn their names.

[Lance Lachlan ✌🏻 @lancelachlan]

I’m sorry, but @lisanandy has failed to reform the media industry. She’s failed to implement the Leveson recommendations, failed to tackle media concentration, and failed to prevent foreign-owned interests from exerting undue influence over Britain’s media landscape.

The media has become a powerful tool for shaping public opinion, yet successive governments have been unwilling to confront the issue.

Labour cannot keep ignoring the role parts of the media play in distorting political debate. If we’re serious about democratic renewal, this needs to be addressed. I don’t believe Lisa Nandy should be returning to a senior Cabinet role under @AndyBurnhamGM.

[medoyid_ua @LetsArmUKR]

The numbers are in and they are brutal, even by the standards of this meat grinder. Mediazona's confirmed 225k named dead is the granite baseline; it ignores the disposable meat from the occupied territories and every imported mercenary. Their own demographic modeling, cross-checked against inheritance registries, already puts Russian dead near 352k by end-2025. Add the tempo of 2026 and you are looking at roughly 460k irrecoverable losses right now. Apply the classic 1:2 to 1:3 wounded-to-killed ratio and the sanitary total sits between 900k and 1.3 million.

That range lines up almost perfectly with what the Ukrainian General Staff has been reporting, what British intelligence has been leaking, and what NATO itself is using internally. CSIS's conservative models are a bit lower but still land around 400k irrecoverable by now. The trend line is the real story: lethality on the assault groups has spiked. In some storm units the killed-to-wounded ratio is approaching 90 percent because Ukrainian drones own the sky and the orcs cannot even evacuate their shredded meat. A village that once held three hundred civilians now costs them a thousand corpses to take. That is not victory, that is industrial-scale suicide with extra steps.

Every Western politician still muttering about "negotiated settlement" or "frozen conflict" needs to stare at these figures until the reality burns through the skull. Moscow is burning through its cheapest resource faster than it can replace it, and the price per square kilometer has become obscene even for an empire that treats its own people as ammunition. This is not sustainable for them. The only variable left is how many more of their men have to fertilize Ukrainian fields before their system cracks.

The data is not Ukrainian propaganda. It is corroborated by Russian funeral notices, Western intelligence, and cold demographic math. The Kremlin can lie about everything else, but it cannot hide the empty villages, the closed military cemeteries, and the growing cohort of widows who will never see a body. Ukraine is not "holding" in some static line; it is grinding the imperial project into dust one disposable Muscovite at a time.

The West keeps treating aid as charity instead of the cheapest insurance policy it will ever buy. Every confirmed dead orc is one fewer who will ever threaten a NATO border. The math is merciless, the conclusion is obvious, and anyone still pushing for another Minsk-style betrayal is simply volunteering their own grandchildren for the next round.

[Mykhailo Rohoza @MykhailoRohoza]

The General Staff on the Brink

Russia’s military leadership is reportedly nearing open revolt over the Kremlin’s decision to divert fuel from the front lines to Moscow. Senior officers are said to have little sympathy for the capital, which, after strikes on the Kapotnya oil refinery, now fears fuel shortages, long lines at gas stations, and public panic.

According to these reports, the General Staff believes Moscow is once again being protected at the expense of the troops. The capital needs gasoline to maintain an appearance of normality, while the military needs diesel fuel for armored vehicles, ammunition deliveries, and the recovery of damaged equipment.

Several department chiefs have reportedly told Valery Gerasimov directly that no serious offensive operations are possible without adequate fuel supplies. If tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and aircraft are forced to conserve fuel for the sake of Moscow, assault operations may once again fall primarily on infantry units, resulting in significantly higher casualties.

As a result, tensions between the government and the General Staff are reportedly growing and could become increasingly difficult to contain.

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Satellite pictures distributed by various channels show the destruction of the Rybinsk oil facility in the Yaroslavl region, Russia. At least 15 silos were fully destroyed and 5 more visibly damaged. This is more than a third of the facility being knocked out, likely even more.

[Генеральний штаб ЗСУ @GeneralStaffUA]

Загальні бойові втрати противника з 24.02.22 по 22.06.26 орієнтовно склали / The estimated total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 22.06.26

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

NEW: Ukrainian forces are conducting a strike campaign to deny Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel across the Kerch Strait.

Other Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and transport infrastructure are already disrupting Russian logistics, straining energy supplies, and worsening fuel shortages across occupied Crimea.

The Kerch Strait strikes are part of an ongoing systematic Ukrainian campaign deny Russian forces the use of the main ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to occupied Crimea via occupied southern Ukraine.

Russian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area, but this advance is not likely to be recent.

Russian forces launched four missiles and 105 drones at Ukraine overnight.

[Malcontent News @MalcontentmentT]

It's not even Ukrainian intelligence, it's Kamaz's own data.

[Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon]

We now must contemplate how the killing of Ayatollah’s father and small grand-nieces during what was supposed to be a period of negotiation is impacting Iran’s current diplomatic strategy in Geneva. In fact, it is very possible that the Iranians understand that the US has around 60 days of oil in its SPR left, and once they breach the minimums there within 60 days, Tehran knows that the US economy goes off a cliff, and Trump and his political future end pretty humiliatingly. It is very possible that the Iranians have no intention of making a deal, and they just want to get revenge on Trump.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

“I have seen more Russians than I wanted. I feel no hatred, only disgust and pity.

A Russian is harder to grasp than a Dutch or a Japanese. For 30 years Russians did not want freedom, they looked for a tsar, and they found one” — writer and soldier Artem Chapeye, UP Life. 1/

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Before taking any public action, I take behind-the-scenes steps toward de-escalation. At the intelligence and military levels, Belarus received a message: stop helping the Russians. The issue with the relay stations has been ongoing for a long time, and it has resulted in casualties solely on the Ukrainian side. They are technically coordinating this and helping Russian and Iranian drones strike Ukrainians with greater precision. Lukashenko received this information – and he must demonstrate de-escalation with more than just the words “I’m sorry.” He can keep his “apology” to himself. It has meant nothing since the first day of the war.

Step one is to end all technical support. A relay station constitutes direct support. Turn it off, remove it, and show us that it has been removed. Since this message was conveyed to them repeatedly, we have now reached the stage of issuing a public signal. If he does not remove it, we will remove everything ourselves. Similarly, we’re sending a message: please stop supplying fuel to the Russian army. There are no threats here. We’re simply saying that we see what’s happening. The first steps are always behind the scenes, but the next steps are different.

From an interview for the United News telethon. (4/5)

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

Ukrainian drones are hitting multiple Russian regions right now. DroneBomber puts the count around 300 according to Russian sources.

[Kvist @kvistp]

Everything is bad

[Kyle Glen @KyleJGlen]

Russian milblogger reports a catastrophic situation in Crimea

- No electricity

- No water

- No fuel

It's not even cracks showing anymore, it's collapsing.

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Ukrainian drones are also attacking ferry port facilities in Russia, including parking trucks, who are waiting for the transfer to Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine.

The peninsula is getting cut off from all sides.

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

A complex for transshipping fuel oil, liquefied gas and light petroleum products is burning in Kerch after the strike. Fire has spread to 4-5 of 7 fuel tanks at the TES-Terminal facility.

[ITDUDE Fella @The_Real_ITDUDE]

🚨russian panic is real🚨
They are preparing to lose Kerch Bridge and now believe it is inevitable

[777ua @777AFU]

Шість тисяч дронів від німців, для зупинки логістики, у Бєлгородській, Курській та Брянській областях літо буде спекотним.

[Shaun Pinner @ShaunPinnerUA]

Crimea is beginning to feel like a Mariupol moment for Russia.

Fuel shortages are spreading across the peninsula, strikes are hitting logistics, and the Kerch Bridge now appears higher on Ukraine’s target list than at any point in the war.

We’re also hearing from reliable local sources that property prices are being heavily discounted as Russians seek to leave the peninsula, taking whatever they can get for apartments before the situation deteriorates further.

For years, Crimea was presented as Putin’s greatest geopolitical triumph and home to the prized Black Sea Fleet. Today, the peninsula is facing fuel shortages, transport disruption and growing economic uncertainty, and now abandonment.

The bridge is more than infrastructure. It’s a symbol. If it were ever rendered unusable for a prolonged period, the military consequences would be significant.

The political consequences for Putin could be even greater.

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

❗️A power outage has hit northwestern, central and southern coastal occupied Crimea, according to utility notices. Most pumping stations serving the peninsula’s water network have been left without electricity, disrupting water supply in multiple areas. #Crimea