“What is he trying to prove? Everyone rises and falls on what they’re trying to prove.”
Insightful comment made by a CEO this week in the context of evaluating whether a particular person would be a good fit to work with.
One practice I highly recommend as an investor is deliberately and consistently spending some (not all) of your time working on contrarian ideas. Absent that, then by definition, you are spending all of your time working on conventional ideas which is not a recipe for success.
If you’re spending all of your time pursuing conventional ideas, looking at the same sectors, same geographies, same business models, same companies, running the same analysis, doing the same diligence, focusing on the same metrics, exactly the same as every other investor - why would you expect a differentiated result? You’ve commoditized yourself.
How do you know you’re working on a contrarian idea? When the idea has business merit in your mind but other seasoned investors say that it is “crazy”, “a waste of time”, “nuts”, etc. It’s not the presence of social validation that you’re looking for, it’s the absence of social validation that becomes the positive indicator that you may be into something.
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I just got off the phone with what was once a great American brand. Lots of problems, no accountability for high paid execs and little interest in my help (at no cost). This could get interesting.