Anil Rana,CFA

Portfolio Manager | Value Investor |
Price over Narrative |
Cycles over Stories |
Finding value where others see nothing

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Most people look for great companies.
Few look for great setups.

The real money is made when 3 things come together:

1. Cheap valuation
2. Visible future growth trigger
3. Contrarian positioning

Example: Real estate (2018–2020)
Dead sector
RERA + consolidation

demand shift to organized players

Earnings came back.
Stocks followed

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@Iamsamirarora The most popular Donald is not Donald Trump,
It is Donald Duck

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@datta_arvind True n there start all the problems.
Retail investors always chase stories n themes circulating in media.
Sometimes they are too expansive, sometimes value trap.

A sound contrarian hardly discussed or printed.

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@dhanesh500 Always fish where the fish are...
Charlie munger.

It is great if investors have many options to invest their capital.

Sometime one country is expansive but others are cheap..
Restricting capital to one market is like fishing in a nearly dry pond

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

First comes IPO..,mostly OFS..

After some time a QIP..,,

Then another try for QIP...
QIP failed this time...

Then price tanks...
Same script.. company different

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@aditya_kondawar But we can not invest on that, we dont know about...
That is the difference between investment and speculation..,

Only FOMO makes people to do that

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

History is full of case studies where being bye standers in any hot shot IPO proved sane decision.
Rpower, Paytm, Ola and many more.

No doubt, it is the innovation that is driving the human kind to the next level, we need many more Spacex like innovators,
Problem is only valuation which bankers throw to people.

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Retail always get caught in a popular theme and over pay for any already played theme.

This trend playing since ages

Infra, real estate, solar and many more past case studies

No doubt solar sector is very essential for country, but portfolio management focus on reasonably valued sustainable businesses

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Popular themes attract lot of capital,
Mostly at the end of cycle.

If an industry has low barrier to entry,
Sooner or later, competition will shrink the margins.

Solar industry also victim of this low moat problem.
High valuations are not going to sustain when profit margin are not.

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@connectgurmeet Imagine the impact on Indian IT and sentiments of FPIs if same kind of headlines appeared 2-3 years back.

Vishal sikka tried in Infosys, but sadly he was shown door.

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Today's headline: Hcl tech bought 10% stake in Sarvam AI.

Imagine the impact on Indian IT sector and stock market if these headlines had appeared 2-3 years back.

Vision is a trillion dollar thing these days

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@themotleyfool The biggest edge is the ability of not doing anything till a favourable trade comes to the screen

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Market focus on one word the most: Growth

HDFC bank needed to slow to down its growth due to inflated credit to deposit ratio after merger.
It rightly did so.

Since market is a voting machin in short term
Its valuation got hammered

Now majority of new branches are getting matured,
Growth is ready to come back so the price

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

Elon musk: SpaceX can touch $1 trillion revenue by FY30.

Are we shifting to Mars in 5 years if this comes true?

[Aditya Kondawar @aditya_kondawar]

Also Credit grew 17.4% in May

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@vikaskhemani Finding high ROE growth stories are over rated

It is the cycle of an industry that decides the returns of investment

Every industry even FMCG is cyclicals in nature.
Today's favourites like defence, capital market were considered cyclical once, now secular stories.

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

@Nithin0dha @zerodha Unique & new business model in an old business sector is a great moat.

The problem is you always have to ahead of the curve.

Zerodha being a young, dynamic company changed the broking sector for good.
Buy now competition is at the door.
Lets see what future brings

[Anil Rana,CFA @AnilCfa]

One of best time to buy-

When price is down due to temporary problems...

Those who follow this, take every fall as opportunity...

Banking vs IT..
Which one is temporary?