Another HABIT

Electronics and communication R&D engineer

[Jigar Shah @JigarShahDC]

Japan stopped reporting.

[David Oks @davideoks]

https://t.co/GGqcA7V8Dl

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@GestaltU Switching out of commoditized storage services like Google Drive and Apple Cloud is painful enough. Add in intelligence, skills, agents on top of the non-deterministic nature LLM. Prices may not soar but don’t see frequent switching being a thing.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

Well laid out roadmap of upcoming data center driven technology cycles

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

Loved the theme posting by @KawzInvests and @ParadisLabs (follow them)

So I decided to follow this up and go one step further by mapping out the timeline of all these themes and their ramp dates.

RUNNING NOW (Still biddable, but easy money gone)

> agentic AI flipped the CPU:GPU ratio from 1:8 to 1:4 already, server CPU prices up 20% with 6 month lead times
> general server MLCC rides the same CPU revival, already inflecting not waiting
> memory is the real bottleneck, DRAM revenue +303% in 26 and NAND +208%, squeeze runs into 27-28

SWEET SPOT (Inflection point)

> high end MLCC at 20+ week lead times, Murata order inquiries at 2x supply capacity, OEM price hikes land next quarter
> advanced packaging scales with the HBM4 and Rubin ramp
> liquid cooling is not a sleeper, Rubin mandates full liquid so it inflects with the GPUs, not after
> CPO and 1.6T optics scale hard with Rubin, Foxconn already shipping CPO switch from Q3, 10k units in 26

FRONTRUN (scale into H2 26)

> SiC and GaN power ride the 800V push, autos already matured the cost curve
> gallium is the GaN feedstock, upstream of the entire power buildout
> 800V HVDC hits mass deployment with Kyber in 27, supply chain gears up through H2 26 (Vertiv launches H2 26)
> 600kW racks arrive with Kyber in 27, the whole power chain rerates ahead of it

WATCH ONLY (too early to size)

> humanoids are a future demand pool, not a 26-27 trade
> 6G is a late decade story
> photonic memory still early stage
> quantum prototypes in 27, IBM fault tolerance target 29, Foxconn commercialization around 30, so the frontrun window is H2 28 to H1 29

Do not become dilution for Quantum. If you want a 1hr rundown on the future of Quantum I'd recommend you watch the @MartinShkreli and @StockSavvyShay debate.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@DavidSacks Yes hearing from everyone how great the job market is. Just booming. Especially for CS college majors - totally booming. Idiot.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@alphaticaio How do we find your platform?

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@ShashiTharoor Well said. Got me thinking though, what if we do dip Idli in sugar syrup. Yum yum.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@JigarShahDC But won't the upgrades be subject to the same CCGT backlog delay? Not saying it shouldn't happen, just that it will coincide with the new modern builds, increasing the 2030+ capacity, but not solve the interim issue.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@Beno10_MFC D - the bottom of the bowl in protruding over the stand

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@stephenehorn Nah, small number, outsized leadership and success.

* Google: Sergey Brin (immigrant)
* Microsoft: Satya Nadella (H-1B route)
* Nvidia: Jensen Huang (immigrant)
* Tesla: Elon Musk (not H-1B specifically, but immigrant)
* Adobe: Shantanu Narayen
* Alphabet: Sundar Pichai

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@bff77777 @AlexNowrasteh @PrimeVanguardX Questions of cultural assimilation are reasonable but points are lost in the broad, racist brush strokes dominating the argument. Won’t bring any change. Besides, business still needs em. Till AI meaningfully arrives. Then you’ll have a “country of geniuses” to contend with.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@bff77777 @PrimeVanguardX @AlexNowrasteh So your point is the immigration policy, in this case, is working then…?

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@PrimeVanguardX @AlexNowrasteh Why then are they the most successful minority group here?
So frustrating that people from that “shit hole” are so successful, creating wealth, jobs n leading premier companies.
Dismantle your arguments and you’re left with nothing but the putrid stench of your primal racism.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@PrimeVanguardX @SpeakSamuel If you’re worried about H-1B you’re going to flip when you hear of this thing called AI.
You can continue stoking your primal racist instincts but it won’t solve the issue of joblessness. You’re fretting over a drop of piss in your dingy when there’s a hurricane on the horizon.

[James Blunt @JBlunt1018]

For perspective: each dot is American workers.
The tiny yellow cluster are the H-1B workers <0.5% of the workforce.

That’s what’s being framed as a ‘crisis.’ There’s no Indian takeover. There are no talented unemployed Americans being replaced.

This debate is being driven more by emotion than by the actual numbers.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@robin_j_brooks Does the shill fee you charge your masters really cover the emotional cost of putting forth such drivel and convoluted logic? Wouldn't it be nice to not have to defend the indefensible?

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

Tick tock boy.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Most oil "experts" are industry shills. They told us that Dated Brent can't fall because the physical shortage is too great. Well, Dated Brent fell $20 in one day on Friday. The stuff from these guys is just scare-mongering. Same as in 2022 after Ukraine.
https://t.co/l2co2Yx2DO

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Most oil "experts" are industry shills. They told us that Dated Brent can't fall because the physical shortage is too great. Well, Dated Brent fell $20 in one day on Friday. The stuff from these guys is just scare-mongering. Same as in 2022 after Ukraine.
https://t.co/l2co2Yx2DO

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@robin_j_brooks You’ve been pushing a reckless gamble with astronomical costs and macroeconomic implications. You’d better be right, else your credibility is done for. We’ll soon know.

[Another HABIT @AnotherRohan]

@JavierBlas Weren’t you telling us this is all a nothing burger?