It's become abundantly clear that many that used to be really big fans of $TSLA have completely lost trust in the company's (and by default, Elon Musk's) ability to execute the long term plan of the company.
It's not "I'm excited for this feat to be accomplished!" - it's more "you're so late - this is terrible! Earnings are suffering because of your inability to execute!"
The same company that achieved profitable EVs, scaled from 50k cars to 500k cars in 6 years, ramped a battery plant from scratch, and brought prices down to make some of the most affordable EVs in the world has lost too much of its former glory - some may say.
Projects like ramping energy storage devices to match the size of the car business, developing self-driving technology at a fraction of the cost of competitors (with an advanced AI learning how to drive), manufacturing a $25k compact EV that can leverage said self-driving technology, a pick up truck that literally bends metal bats, and a humanoid robot project that leverages the same AI system than the self-driving project does, are just too pie in the sky now. None of these matter unless there's results today.
In my opinion - a lot of the short to medium term commentary and observations are detached from the core DNA of the company. The way I've always viewed Tesla is thru a lens of a game-changing company, that works on game-changing technology, hires the best of the best, cultivates a culture of getting difficult things done as efficiently and smartly as possible, and always prioritizes the customer experience so that every Tesla customer becomes an evangelist.
Instead, there's a lot of noise centered around Tesla's inability to leverage its current product portfolio to generate earnings now.
However - the company, from my experience, does not operate in this manner. The company looks 10 years out and asks itself "what are the things we need to be working on today to make the future a reality?"
By default, when one plans this way, there will be misses - sometimes pretty big ones, especially if you are working on novel problems that require novel solutions.
In today's market, there are many that have 0 tolerance or patience for this style of operating a business - and honestly, I get it. Each person has their own needs and expectations, and they should be encouraged to exercise what they think is the best decision for themselves.
However, when I personally see a lot of the discourse (most of which I really enjoy, even those that are directly at odds of my own views), I keep being reminded that Tesla the company, and Tesla the stock, are two completely different animals.
On X, it seems like a lot of the dissenting opinions are around Tesla the stock. Earnings are going down. ASPs are going down. Compact car is late. Cybertruck is slow to ramp. 4680s are super late. ETC.
However, for me, none of these matter. It might be absolutely wild for someone to hear this that is on the other side. A common thing I've heard is that "you are operating on blind faith and hopium!" "How can you even say that when it's not even real!"
Maybe. It could be that I'm completely detached from reality and I've got this so upside down I'm never going to find up.
Or - I have a time horizon of 10+ years where I'm gauging the company's progress, not on how how much earnings they are looking to generate in the next 12-18 months, but what the core technologies are that they've identified that will likely change the world as we know it.
When viewed through that lens, it becomes abundantly clear that some of us are talking 2 completely different languages. Some are looking for Model Y margins to go up in 2024 so that Tesla can increase their EPS by 10%.
I'm looking at how quickly Tesla will be able to deploy the Bot once they've reached Level 4 with FSD, due to their massive lead in large-scale manufacturing of advanced technological systems, which will land them so far ahead, most folks won't even know what happened.
They're living in reality. I'm living on Jupiter.
But IMO, that's what's made Tesla so special over the years. They are THAT company, still to this day, like it or not.
Perhaps some have forgotten how late Tesla was with the OG roadster, or with the Model X, or the Model 3, or with Nevada Gigafactory - or perhaps they've forgotten about taking Tesla private at $420, or Elon smoking a joint on Rogan.
Today's products that Tesla is selling in the millions of units per year were pipe-dream, pie-in-the-sky thinking in 2014. 10 years later, and the automotive landscape looks completely different - specifically because of Tesla - and will continue to change massively in the coming decades.
To assume the company will magically stop doing this for the coming decades seems like a miss to me. The question becomes - what has fundamentally changed between now and then that would make one think this way?
Is it Elon posting more on X with his more political stances? The fear that he's distracted with too many things on his plate? Is it the stock price performance? Earnings going down? Late timelines? FSD always being a year away?
If it's one of these, my pushback would be that this doesn't seem that far off from Tesla's default state, especially if viewed back to 2008 with the launch of the OG Roadster. The company's default mode seems to be always being way too late...
But their saving grace is that they always deliver something in the end that blows people's minds. Over time, that thing drives Tesla's success to the point it's at now.
It's up to the individual to decide how they want to approach the story - but it's hard to ignore the fact this same company just put out a vehicle that looks like a fridge, is bullet proof and metal bat proof, that can beat almost anything off the line, and is being purchased left and right by highly influential, highly visible people that are obsessed with brand.
This same company just released a self-driving version that uses the same hardware that was shipped in their cars 4 years ago, that uses an advanced AI to drive around roads in the US, with only 1 year of development with the lowest amount of compute hardware and data at its disposal.
And lastly, they took a person in a dancing robot suit in 2020 and turned it into a fully fledged humanoid robot that is walking around and doing simple tasks using the same hardware and software stack the self-driving car uses, with the hopes to sell this as a consumer product at a cost that's no more than a car.
But don't listen to me - I'm literally just a random guy on the internet.
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