The Apex Wire

Half ape, half machine.

We keep up with the madness so you don't have to.

Follow the money, not the narrative.

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Lenders are charging AI's borrowers first. CoreWeave's five-year credit default swaps sit at 1,145 basis points with its stock down more than 30% in the month, even as Nvidia H200 rental prices are reportedly up about 160% since January.

Morgan Stanley puts data-center spending near $2.9 trillion against a $1.5 trillion financing gap. JetBlue's creditors hired restructuring advisers as its 2031 bonds fell to about 44 cents on the dollar.

Washington is staging the next round of the Iran war on a calendar rather than a trigger. Military planners have drawn up strike options for after the midterms, and the President said he would not strike Iran again before the November 3 vote.

On Hormuz, the sources disagree outright. Iran says the US has ended its maritime blockade of its ports, a single-source claim, while Kpler puts Tehran's trackable floating crude outside the blockade zone at zero and Central Command estimates the blockade has denied it at least $25 billion.

At home, diesel averages $6.32 a gallon against $3.63 a year earlier, and retired Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro says the first Russian diesel tanker, carrying 40,000 tons, would supply only a couple of hours of US diesel.

The Justice Department plans to station election monitors in all 50 states, against roughly 400 sent to 64 jurisdictions in 2022.

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European gas hit a four-year high on winter supply fears, yet German business sentiment rose for a sixth month in a row:

Gas climbed above 97 euros per megawatt-hour, a level unseen since late 2022, while German companies grew more upbeat despite the energy price pressure. The Fed is still expected to hold rates this week.

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Zelenskyy offers to halt Russian refinery strikes, as a Voronezh drone attack reportedly sets an aircraft plant ablaze.

The terms: Russia stops striking Ukrainian energy sites, or the US enables Starlink over Russia or supplies Patriots. Russia says the Voronezh attack killed 2 and injured 17, with fires reported at the VASO aircraft plant and a rubber plant. Zelenskyy also filed bills extending martial law and mobilisation through 29 January 2027.

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Brent hit $117 on Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, then fell as Qatar pushed mediation to ease US-Iran hostilities:

Rystad Energy ties the climb to Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and slower Strait of Hormuz traffic. Brent dropped more than $2 on the Qatari push and was reported back at $114. Iran is set to host Mecca pact states, its first top-level contact with the bloc since the Houthi attacks escalated. Investors also face Fed, ECB and BoJ decisions and Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon results this week.

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Turkey moves to bind itself to Saudi defense as Houthis claim strikes on Saudi forces and oil pumping stations:

Turkey has begun ratifying the Mecca pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which treats an attack on one as an attack on all. Houthis claimed ballistic missile strikes on Saudi forces in Aden and Lahij and on East-West oil pumping stations, with no Saudi confirmation. IRNA says Pakistan's defense chief Munir will meet Saudi defense and Turkish intelligence chiefs in Tehran.

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Two SK Hynix leveraged funds are being liquidated, as investors pull money from AI before this week's big tech earnings.

The US-listed funds launched only months ago and will be delisted as the AI rally cools. Australia's markets regulator warned that global bond turmoil and AI worries put liquidity at risk. Bitcoin also slipped below $80,000 on liquidations and ETF outflows ahead of this week's Fed decision.

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Anthropic may cut its IPO target to $1.5 trillion, raising the stakes for Alphabet and Microsoft earnings on Wednesday: Anthropic may lower its valuation goal from $2 trillion amid slowing revenue growth and AI bubble worries. Alphabet and Microsoft, together 11.5% of the S&P 500, report after Wednesday's close as investors look for proof that AI spending turns into profit. CoreWeave's bond yields rose past 15% and its shares fell more than 30%.

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France's street protests are reaching its bond market, as yields hit a 2002 high and Marine Le Pen opens her 2027 run.

Weekend protests and market jitters pushed the 10-year yield to 5.14%, the highest since 2002. Le Pen launched her campaign in Orléans under a deployment of nearly 3,000 police and gendarmes. A new poll has Mélenchon edging past Edouard Philippe, 18.5% to 16%. https://t.co/jnJfg1fTKY

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Elon Musk says buying a neocloud is pointless, as SpaceX closes a $40 billion debt deal to buy Nvidia GPUs directly.

His remark deepened a selloff in neocloud stocks already weighed down by worries over debt-heavy expansion. Musk says the GPUs go to SpaceX's own AI data centers. PCB maker Dongshan still raised about $1.3 billion in Hong Kong in a jittery market for AI infrastructure stocks.

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More details:
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UPDATE: Flávio Bolsonaro asks for the runoff result to be annulled, accusing the Supreme Court of changing the rules by extending voting hours at the last minute – Bloomberg

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Brazil's electoral court declared Lula the winner, as Mexico's top election official resigns after a graft probe opened.

With 100% counted, Lula, 80, beat Flávio Bolsonaro about 51.7% to 48.2% for a fourth term, the first runoff comeback since Brazil's return to democracy. Mexico's electoral chief is stepping down, Bloomberg reports. Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual fell 3.5% on Lula's win.

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Lula's win is a setback for Trump in Latin America, and Machado's surprise return to Venezuela threatens his plans there:

Bloomberg says Brazilian assets fell after Lula's upset, and Nu shares slid nearly 12% overnight. Washington had hit Brazil with extra tariffs and revoked a Brazilian justice's visa after Jair Bolsonaro's conviction. Machado came home nearly 11 months after fleeing by boat to collect her Nobel Peace Prize.

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Brazil's electoral court declared Lula the winner, as Mexico's top election official resigns after a graft probe opened.

With 100% counted, Lula, 80, beat Flávio Bolsonaro about 51.7% to 48.2% for a fourth term, the first runoff comeback since Brazil's return to democracy. Mexico's electoral chief is stepping down, Bloomberg reports. Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perpetual fell 3.5% on Lula's win.

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Trump says it's an Iran deal or more strikes, as Israel's army chief reportedly wants Netanyahu's orders in writing.

Trump urged Israel to "finish the job" in Iran. Israeli media report IDF chief Eyal Zamir demanded written authorization from Netanyahu over Iran, which Netanyahu denies. Israel votes Tuesday, and oil slipped off a six-month high as Trump said he was willing to resume attacks.

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Hassett says a US-Canada trade deal is "very close," as an economist puts Canada's counter-tariff cost at $100M a week:

The US plans to waive tariffs on some Canadian goods after a Maine Republican senator lobbied for it, with Michigan and New Hampshire possibly next. Economist Trevor Tombe told MPs Ottawa's counter-tariffs cost Canadian consumers about $100 million a week. In Michigan, Senate candidate Mike Rogers dodged questions on Trump's Canada tariffs.