Apollonian Research

PhD in Law & Economics/Corporate Wrongdoing. Market commentary/history, occasional pieces on Seeking Alpha.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

In 2010 interest payments were 34.2% of military spending.

In just 16 years it grew to 124.8% of military spending.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

3/
Same company, same fair value, 30% lower price.

Disclosure: opened a small long at $172, stated in the article.

Full write-up on Seeking Alpha: https://t.co/qUdenv3WNL

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

1/
Five weeks ago I rated $ENVA a Hold at $251. A great business, ~40% too expensive vs peers.

Last week Enova withdrew its Grasshopper Bank application and the stock fell 25% to $174.

My fair value was an earning story and didn't include the bank. Upgrading to Buy. 🧵

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

2/
The valuation call hasn't moved. Fair value $190–210, straight off the peer P/E-vs-growth line, always ex-Grasshopper.

What justifies the premium multiple to peers: 33% EPS growth, and 69% of the book is small-business lending sitting outside consumer rate caps.

Guidance was also reaffirmed.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

What worries me more: two co-founders hold 65% of votes with 8% of the economics through 20-vote shares. No time-based sunset. CII named Chime among the four most concerning IPO structures of H1 2025.

Solid company, rented economics, entrenched control. I rate it a Hold. Full breakdown:
https://t.co/dcmvjVMxj8

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

$CHYM just bought its partner bank and popped 10% (down to 5% during trading). Buried in the press release: a commitment to keep total assets under $10bn "for the foreseeable future."

A bank promising to never grow its balance sheet is telling you something about the business model.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

The Durbin amendment caps debit swipe fees except for banks under $10bn in assets. Chime's cards earn around 4 - 5x regulated rates through that exemption.

I estimate the premium at 12 - 20% of revenue, effectively pure margin. Midpoint: $430mn. Chime's entire FY26 EBITDA guide is $481- 489mn.

And owning the bank doesn't escape the test, it now applies to Chime's own consolidated assets. Hence the promise.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

Bottom line: 20 years inside this category tells me the market is mispricing the customer this product creates.

Strong Buy, $80 target. Collect the 6% while the world figures it out.

Full deep dive (data, model, regulatory map):
https://t.co/nsjBicNTtC

5/5

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

Bought a significant chunk of $BATS $BTI at $55 with a price target of $80. As a Swede who has used Nicotine pouches for 20 years, I think Modern Oral has the potential to become a larger market than cigarettes.

Shares are currently cheap and yielding 6%.

🧵1/5

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

Reverse DCF (8.5% cost of equity, £8bn FCF, cigarettes −3%/yr, oral margins 25%→40%):

Today's $BTI price implies ~16% Modern Oral CAGR to 2035.
At 25–30%: $67-$78/ADR
At 35%: $94

For reference: BAT's modern oral compounded 47%/yr over two years. +65.9% latest half.

4/5

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

In October of 2008 Volkswagen briefly become the most valuable company in the world.

Porsche had quietly built a 74.1% position, much of it through cash-settled options German law didn't require it to disclose. Lower Saxony held 20%, leaving a free float of 5%. Short interest: 12%.

€200 to €1,000 in two days. Ownership you can't see is risk you can't price.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

@WolfgangRichtEU You're a modern day Mother Theresa.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

One of the earliest known options contracts dates to around ~6th century BC Greece.

Thales, using his skill in astronomy (some accounts say he predicted weather patterns or read seasonal signs), forecast that the upcoming olive harvest would be unusually abundant.

While it was still winter, well before anyone knew how good the harvest would be, Thales went around Miletus and Chios and put down deposits with the owners of olive presses to secure the right to use those presses when harvest time came, paying a low price for that right since demand for presses was slack in the off-season and no one was competing for them.

When the harvest arrived and turned out to be as bountiful as he had predicted, demand for pressing capacity spiked. Because Thales already held the right to the presses at the previously agreed (low) rate, he was able to rent them out to farmers at whatever price he wanted, pocketing the difference.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

On June 17th 2020, Wirecard shares were trading at €104.

On June 26th 2020, they were trading at €1.28, a 99% decline over six trading days.

$14 billion in market cap almost entirely wiped out. It's as if Best Buy's shares declined 99% in six sessions.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

On June 17th 2020, Wirecard shares were trading at €104.

On June 26th 2020, they were trading at €1.28, a 99% decline over six trading days.

$14 billion in market cap almost entirely wiped out. It's as if Best Buy's shares declined 99% in six sessions.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme is believed to have lasted from the 1970s or 1980s until 2008. That's around 30 years of undetected fraud.

The SEC raided Madoff’s office twice, once in 2004 and another in 2005. They only visited the eighteenth and nineteenth floors, whereas the Ponzi scheme was operating from the seventeenth.

He was only arrested on December 11th 2008 after confessing the scheme to his sons who reported him to the FBI.

Here is Bernie Madoff on October 20th 2007 stating that "It's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time."

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme is believed to have lasted from the 1970s or 1980s until 2008. That's around 30 years of undetected fraud.

The SEC raided Madoff’s office twice, once in 2004 and another in 2005. They only visited the eighteenth and nineteenth floors, whereas the Ponzi scheme was operating from the seventeenth.

He was only arrested on December 11th 2008 after confessing the scheme to his sons who reported him to the FBI.

Here is Bernie Madoff on October 20th 2007 stating that "It's impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time."

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

@Barchart Sell.

[Apollonian Research @Apollonian_R]

@Hedgeye Maybe its a bad idea for the government to lock all capital within the country and inflate the only investable asset.