Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀

Cap math and hoops stats. 🏀📊

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@ShamsCharania @BobbyMarks42 Don’t do it Duren

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@GraceJNBA I feel like that kinda makes it worse 😂

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

I feel so bad for KJ

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

Nembhard is ahead of Tyus Jones in my pecking order

[Z @nuggetscountry_]

Guard Ryan Nembhard has agreed to a two-way NBA contract with the Denver Nuggets, per @ShamsCharania.

[Alec Gwin @alecgwin]

@ShamsCharania First reported by @Ary_Report

[Grace Jean @GraceJNBA]

I think the pendulum has swung a bit too far on Adleman. I wasn't a fan of how he handled media day, just a bit too defensive. But the consistent ragging on a guy who everyone seemed to love for "taking okc to 7" on short notice and followed that up with a 3-seed rookie campaign

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

Unserious organization.

[Ryan Blackburn @NBABlackburn]

Asked David Adelman today on Denver’s bench identity:

“I think it’s to play fast with [Tyus Jones] and [Marvin Bagley]…and if that doesn’t work, we slow the hell down and get DeMar DeRozan the ball.”

“We gotta figure out who fits best around DeMar.”

[Keith Smith @KeithSmithNBA]

NBA expansion is closer than ever. Want to see what an Expansion Draft might look like? We've got you covered on @spotrac!

We updated our Mock Expansion Draft tool with current rosters and updated protections. You can edit and do your own protections too!
https://t.co/xZTpsNiRU7

[Jon Krawczynski @JonKrawczynski]

“I was just never going to change who I was, even when the world was asking me to change who I was, to be a character in their story.”

A candid Karl-Anthony Towns goes deep with @TheAthletic on turmoil, tragedy and triumph

Free to read:

https://t.co/rm7A3s3zpx

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

It's also important because the eye test is usually a very small sample. There's simply too much basketball being played to watch every game, every possession and every player, so people take what they've seen in a limited sample and extrapolate it to the entire population.

That's where the data can be useful: not to replace your eyes, but to test whether what you're seeing actually holds up at scale.

[Ku 🦉 @KuKhahil]

The problem for EyeTest FC is that they’re incapable of having the understanding that us at Context FC have.

Which is, if I’m watching a game and catches my eye, now I wanna go look at the data and see if it backs up what I just saw and what my thought was.

If it doesn’t, I then want to dive into “okay why isn’t that the case” to find out if there’s more context missing or something one particular data point isn’t providing that multiple data points could better paint.

And if it doesn’t, then I’m capable of saying “oh, that must’ve been just a one time thing, my eye test was trying to make a larger takeaway than it should’ve”.

And it’s the same thing the other way around. If I see two players on/off data with eachother, and I feel like “mmm that doesn’t match my eye test, are my eyes lying to me or is there more to this?” I’m then going to dig further in.
And then maybe I find out oh! This two players on/off data was actually heavily influenced by a 3rd player who shares the floor with X player much more than Y player. Or maybe I walk away saying huh, maybe I’ve been watching with biased eyes before lemme watch this moving forward and see why I missed this.

Eye Test FC is incapable of this because A: they don’t comprehend 90% of the data B: they refuse to admit their eye test is not the Bible and that you are going to miss things C: are mostly full of lazy people who want to be able to just spew what they want without needing to back their claim/stance up with any evidence, and most importantly D: your eye test just sucks ass

[Brad Rowland @BTRowland]

Starting tomorrow (Oct. 1), Onyeka Okongwu is eligible for a contract extension up to 3 years and $76.6 million total.

It's a short window, though.

Only eligible to extend until Oct. 19, then the door closes again.

(In contrast, Lu Dort is extension-eligible all season)

[Real App @realapp]

The Fever tonight 🔥

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@javybetter @KuKhahil 🤝

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

Kessler anchors at the rim. Luka plays inside, where his size and rebounding help and he isn't chased on the perimeter. Two of Grimes/Thybulle/Ziaire take the best perimeter guys, and Reaves sits on the other team's worst perimeter player.

Maybe not "nasty," but it could be good.

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@shawn2brazy @ViscaRivaldoo @nikotaughtyou Aye they just won a chip n KAT was out there doing his thing, so I get it. But this is how the championship rosters get broken up. Gotta be level headed and make tough decisions.

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@ViscaRivaldoo @nikotaughtyou Model projection (75 GP, 33 mpg, which is generous) is $208.5M
35% max is $276M
I don’t see how his max is a no brainer and he definitely isn’t getting that from every other franchise. But it’s an opinion I guess

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@Lex_Tric @nikotaughtyou That is the real dilemma unfortunately. I think most franchises are super skeptical about these massive contracts nowadays. That’s why Jaylen Brown’s return was so underwhelming.

I do think if it’s a max or he walks for nothing, I’d give him the max though.

[Apron Alchemy 🧪🏀 @ApronAlchemy]

@ViscaRivaldoo @nikotaughtyou 32-35 year old KAT is a 35% max player to you?
Re owners, rich as they may be, they have made it extremely clear, they will not go over the 2nd apron. So, their wealth doesn’t really matter here.