Auto Racing Analytics

Breaking down why drivers win races: speed, restarts, traffic management, clean driving
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[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Had the entire 267 laps at Miami gone green and the final positions were based on speed alone (Median Lap) Kyle Larson would've finished approximately 2.5 miles ahead of 2nd place

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@frosty20_20 @FortyFiveJamie @TylerReddick @dennyhamlin @CBellRacing @KyleLarsonRacin @jeff_gluck Small sample size with only 2 road courses. One would think that’ll come up more still

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Heard Dale Jr talking about who the championship threats may be this year, so I thought I'd post some graphs and let the people weigh in

These are the Team focused graphs. Driver graphs are below in comments

Who's your way too early championship pick?

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@soopersillykay Optimal lap model ranks him as 3rd fastest Toyota behind Hamlin and Reddick.

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@HamlinFanatic11 @TylerReddick @dennyhamlin @CBellRacing @KyleLarsonRacin @jeff_gluck 😂

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@frosty20_20 @FortyFiveJamie @TylerReddick @dennyhamlin @CBellRacing @KyleLarsonRacin @jeff_gluck I wouldn’t say that’s no road course speed. That’s 11th in the field. First right there is 10th place

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@whodeybaby9851 @TylerReddick @dennyhamlin @CBellRacing @KyleLarsonRacin @jeff_gluck Look, I’m just posting the 4 Dale Jr and company talking most about, but based on my metrics I’d have more faith in Larson figuring it out than Chase taking the next step to contend with Hamlin and Reddick consistent

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Complete lists of where your favorite driver ranks this season for Optimal Lap Rank, Restarts, Passing, Defending and more is available for subscribers at https://t.co/7KwRrdaje5

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

2026 Nascar Cup Series Pit Crews

Rankings based on average of 10 fastest 4 tire pit stops

1 - That's a lot of Gibbs cars
2 - 3 of the top 5 in points, are also in the top 5 for pit stop times

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Complete lists of where your favorite driver ranks this season (charlotte update coming end of today into tomorrow) for Optimal Lap Rank, Restarts, Passing, Defending and more is available for subscribers at https://t.co/7KwRrdaje5

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Had the ENTIRE 300 laps at Nashville been based on if each driver achieved the result of their Optimal Lap Model for every lap, this is approximately where the fastest cars would've finished on track

Note: This week's data leans short run heavy due to minimal long runs

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Optimal Lap Model takes into account when drivers are in dirty air/clean air, tire degradation, and a driver's lap time inconsistency to estimate the expected best possible lap time of the car for each lap through a run.

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Sorry folks, it’s a late one so data won’t be out until later tomorrow afternoon, but I’ll get it to you as quick as I can

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Complete lists of where your favorite driver ranks this season for Optimal Lap Rank, Restarts, Passing, Defending and more is available for subscribers at https://t.co/7KwRrdaje5

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Cup Series Positions Net on Restarts in 2026 on Non-Drafting Ovals

Restarts are measured from just before the choose through 2 laps after green

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

@dennyhamlin Appreciate it!

btw, team and driver ranking charts are below for your interest. Outer ring is 1st, then 10, 20, 30

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Hey @dennyhamlin , if you’ve got some critiques of optimal lap model I’d be happy to take them.

I heard you mention though that the image I post is based on 4th quarter median lap speed. That is no longer the case as of last year as optimal lap model is much more accurate

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Complete lists of where your favorite driver ranks this season (charlotte update dropped yesterday) for Optimal Lap Rank, Restarts, Passing, Defending and more is available for subscribers at https://t.co/7KwRrdaje5

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Fastest Cars on Intermediate Tracks per Optimal Lap Model

Value is the average of speed ranks from 2026 races. Cup is based on 30 lap runs, lower series based on 20 lap runs

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

Optimal Lap Model takes into account when drivers are in dirty air/clean air, tire degradation, and a driver's lap time inconsistency to estimate the expected best possible lap time of the car for each lap through a run.

[Auto Racing Analytics @AR_Analytics]

I knew that wasn’t the most accurate measure. Just took time to develop a decent model that could analyze car speed

Optimal lap model is able to take into account dirty air and driver inconsistencies to get underlying car speed. Obviously it’s not perfect, but I’d show it to you