Arbitr@ge

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@financialjuice @AuclairsDad just another reason why there will be no rate hikes

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@PolymarketMoney @AuclairsDad

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@AndrewCurran_ This is clearly the Etched news announced yesterday.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@tradfi @AuclairsDad oh boy

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@zerohedge This is his warning to the Oil industry if they don’t lower prices, he will cut gasoline exports, which will force prices lower.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@lord_fed UK is way too far gone at this point

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@WarrenPies @rev_cap The Inflationista’s alwayssss forget about Oil. They never talk about it, even though it has massively inflationary forces not just in headline but also many aspects of Core. It amazes me the so called Fintwit Experts still haven’t learned this.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@RamaswmySridhar @zephyr_z9 Why do people care about tokens and token cost? At the end of the day the cost shouldn’t matter, the result should. If one model is producing crap results, but low token cost, then who cares?

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@lord_fed @DannyDayan5 has been obsessed with the FCI loop for 1-2 years now and would have missed the entire rally if you followed his posts. He continually fails to understand how important oil prices are to inflation, both headline and core.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

The market has consistently understated the impact oil prices have on CPI/PCE. Trump seemingly agreeing to a deal with Iran days before his new self appointed FED chair is probably not coincidence. Energy down 25% MoM means CPI (including core) heading only one direction, down. There will be zero hikes, especially before midterms and while his task forces complete their work.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@AuclairsDad Gundlach literally just said this almost verbatim on CNBC live

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@lord_fed Already like him better than JP. Many of these changes he is talking about for task forces should have been done many years ago.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@stevehou This talk of rate hikes is absurd. Assuming things don’t flare up in Iran again soon, oil/energy is down 25% MoM. CPI highs for the year are in and only heading one direction from here.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@zerohedge Wait until June CPI comes out after energy has fallen by 25% MoM. CPI only going one direction from here, and that’s down. Zero hikes coming and warsh will say it

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@expertsonly @johnsummit @unvrsibiza Where can I listen to this live? Is it on SoundCloud yet?

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@TheRealMrACL Is there anyone playing better golf this year than fitzpatrick?

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@zephyr_z9 https://t.co/nblTXrLpUn

@_The_Prophet__ with a great breakdown of what the Anthropic news actually means, and isn’t the crisis X is making this out to be.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️This makes this much bigger.

Amazon is deeply exposed to Anthropic through investment, cloud infrastructure, enterprise trust, and AWS security liability.

If Anthropic’s most advanced model creates cyber uplift before the defense layer is ready, Amazon is one of the institutions sitting directly under the blast radius.

That changes the whole read.

The model triggered concern not only inside Washington, but inside the company stack that funds, hosts, sells, and absorbs liability for frontier AI.

Amazon is an Anthropic investor, AWS is the compute and enterprise-distribution layer, and Amazon has direct exposure if a frontier model creates cyber uplift, enterprise trust blowback, regulatory risk, or national-security conflict.

So the deeper machine looks like this:

Anthropic ships frontier capability.

A jailbreak/cyber concern surfaces.

Government asks for pause.

Anthropic resists.

Amazon-level infrastructure leadership raises concern.

Trump officials receive the concern as both technical risk and elite industry validation.

Government uses export-control authority.

Access gets pulled.

That is the new AI regime in miniature.

The lab no longer controls the model alone.
The state controls legal permission. The cloud controls infrastructure. The enterprise layer controls distribution trust. The national-security apparatus controls acceptable exposure. The investor/vendor ecosystem can activate pressure when the lab’s deployment threatens the broader stack.

That is why this is bigger than Anthropic.

The state does not even need to understand the model perfectly if the infrastructure class says, “This creates security risk before defenses are ready.” That converts a technical ambiguity into a governance event.

Amazon may be aligned with Anthropic financially, but still rationally support a pause if the risk threatens AWS, enterprise trust, government relationships, or the broader AI adoption environment. That is how serious this is. The capital stack can love frontier AI and still demand containment when the capability runs ahead of the control layer.

This is soft nationalization through the ecosystem.

Not ownership.

Coordination.

Cloud providers, hyperscalers, frontier labs, defense agencies, Commerce, CISA, intelligence, White House, enterprise customers, and investors all becoming part of one control loop.

The public story is “security risks in Anthropic’s models.”

The real story is “frontier AI deployment now requires consent from the infrastructure-sovereign complex.”

That is the line.

The open frontier model of AI is dying because too many actors with real power now have balance-sheet, security, and geopolitical reasons to slow the strongest models down until the state and cloud layer can absorb them.

This also makes your viral post look even more on target.

Frontier AI stopped being software.

It became controlled strategic capability.

Now the enforcement mechanism is visible: not just government decree, but hyperscaler alarm plus sovereign power plus export-control law.

That is the regime.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@zephyr_z9 Everyone was so up in arms that the US did this to Anthropic but it’s not like it was some no name developer or hacker who discovered the jailbreak. The fact it came direct from Jassy makes a lot more sense now the US reaction.

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@AuclairsDad USDJPY again 👀

[Arbitr@ge @Arbitrage_econs]

@JuneGoh_Sparta What does the $4.40 value imply, that it’s open by $4.40?