Ari Raunio

Tietokirjailija; Suomen sodat 1939-45 Everstiluutnantti evp, VTM Seuraan myös tämän päivän maailman menoa

[Visioner @visionergeo]

‼️‼️🇵🇱🇺🇸🇷🇺 BREAKING Alarm is intensifying across NATO’s northeastern flank as the Baltic states and their neighbors warn that Russia’s behavior is creating an increasingly dangerous security environment, while Washington has reportedly delivered a direct message to the Kremlin: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”

According to Delfi, representatives of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Finland have sent an urgent appeal to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warning about the deteriorating regional security environment, increasingly frequent airspace violations and the appearance of Russian drones. At the same time, BILD reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe was dispatched to Moscow to communicate confidential U.S. “red lines” directly to the Kremlin amid concerns over possible Russian provocations against NATO, drone operations in Europe and growing tensions surrounding the Baltic region. According to the German publication, Washington’s warning was deliberately stark: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”

Taken together, the developments suggest that Western concern has moved beyond general warnings about Russia’s long-term intentions. The Baltic states are urgently strengthening their defenses while Washington is using one of its highest-level intelligence channels to warn Moscow directly against testing NATO. The immediate danger may come through drones, sabotage, false-flag operations or limited military provocations rather than a full-scale invasion, but the strategic objective of NATO’s response is increasingly clear: convince the Kremlin that even a limited attempt to probe the Alliance’s eastern frontier would cross a U.S. red line and risk confrontation with NATO as a whole.

See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo

[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_nauditt]

Trump signs executive order renaming Lake Ontario "Lake America"

The most ridiculous US president of all time will soon rename the Pacific and the Atlantic as well.

[Mikael Lith @mjlith]

"Germany and five allies — Austria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden — are calling for cuts of several hundred billion euros."

https://t.co/VfXrT2HZqh

[K.G. 🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇦 @katha1502]

🚨 🇱🇻 LETTLAND BEREITET AUSNAHMEZUSTAND AN DER OSTGRENZE VOR

Lettland reagiert auf die zunehmende hybride Bedrohungslage an seiner Grenze zu Russland und Belarus. Die Regierung bereitet einen Ausnahmezustand für große Teile der östlichen Grenzregion vor, zunächst bis 1. Dezember 2026.

Betroffen wären unter anderem Daugavpils, Rēzekne, Ludza, Krāslava und Balvi.

Der Hintergrund: Lettland will sicherstellen, dass Energieversorgung, Wasser, Gesundheitswesen und andere kritische Infrastruktur auch bei Drohnenvorfällen, Luftraumbedrohungen, Cyberangriffen oder Sabotageversuchen weiter funktionieren. Im Ernstfall soll das Verteidigungsministerium die Koordinierung übernehmen.

Die lettische Regierung sagt ausdrücklich, dass es keine akute Verschärfung der militärischen Bedrohungslage und keinen bestätigten unmittelbar bevorstehenden russischen Angriff gibt. Der Schritt ist also präventiv.

Aber genau das macht ihn so bemerkenswert: Ein NATO-Staat schafft für seine Ostgrenze einen speziellen Krisenrahmen, weil Drohnen, Sabotage, Cyberangriffe und andere hybride Bedrohungen inzwischen als dauerhaftes Sicherheitsproblem behandelt werden.

Das ist keine Panik. Das ist Vorbereitung.

#Lettland #NATO #Russland #Baltikum #Ostflanke #HybridWarfare #Sabotage #Drohnen #Cyberangriff

[Ari Raunio @AriRaunio]

@RockOla69 Ajattelen, että Trumpilla on jo niin paljon huolia, ettei halua ainakaan juuri nyt NATO/Venäjä selkkausta Eurooppaan.

[Ari Raunio @AriRaunio]

Yksi looginen selitys CIA johtajan Moskovan matkaan. Ei ensi vuodesta vaan tästä. USAn punainen viiva.

[@BrennpunktUA 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @BrennpunktUA]

Das passt nicht wirklich zusammen!

Die heute Nacht von min. 3 US Medien (WSJ, Politico, CBS News) veröffentlichten Berichte zum „wahren“ Hintergrund des Besuchs von CIA Direktors Ratcliffe in Moskau sprechen alle von einem Zeithorizont von möglichen RU Angriffen „in den nächsten Jahren“ auf NATO Gebiet.

Übereinstimmend berichten sie alle über eine deutliche Warnung die von Seiten der US Administration persönlich durch den Geheimdienst-Chef ausgesprochen wurde, sie variieren lediglich in der Form der Angriffe. Von Cyber- über Hybrid- bis hin zu einer möglichen Invasion in ein baltisches Land. Der jeweils gleich beschriebene Zeithorizont passt aber nicht wirklich zu dieser doch sehr plötzlich und dringlichen Art und Weise der Reise. Die Berichte wurden auch alle mehr oder weniger innerhalb von einer Stunde veröffentlicht.

Das riecht nach einer gezielt platzierten „Story“ an die Medien, damit sie aufhören zu „bohren“. Da steckt noch etwas Wichtigeres und vor allem Dringlicheres dahinter, das aus irgendwelchen Gründen aktuell nicht an die Öffentlichkeit gelangen soll. Die bisherige Erzählung ist einfach hinten und vorne nicht rund.

Die NATO hat zwischen dem 18.08 - 20.08 drei Tag in Folge eine massive Luftoperation im Raum des russischen Kaliningrad eingeleitet; dabei wurde insbesondere vor der britischen Küste und über der Ostsee ein massiver Einsatz von U-Boot Jagd-Flugzeugen beobachtet, wie mehrere OSINT Accounts übereinstimmend berichtet haben. Über die wahren Hintergründe ist bisher nicht wirklich etwas im Detail bekannt.

Was auch immer da gelaufen ist, das passt für mich viel eher zu einem plötzlichen Besuch des CIA Direktors in Moskau und einer direkten Warnung an den Kreml. Kombiniert man das dann noch mit dem Vorfall am Flughafen Leipzig und anderen Hybriden Vorfällen auf NATO Territorium in Europa in der letzten Zeit, kommt mir eine so plötzliche Reise mit einer klaren persönlichen Ansage auf höchster Ebene viel schlüssiger vor.

Meiner Ansicht nach ging es also nicht um irgendwelche Dinge die die Russen „in den nächsten Jahren“ versuchen könnten, sondern um Dinge die aktuell gerade passieren. Wenn jemand in der Lage wäre eine „Rote Linie“ im Namen der USA und auch der NATO Verbündeten zu ziehen, und die auch mit einer Warnung glaubhaft dem Kreml vermitteln kann, dann wäre diese Person Ratcliffe.

[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 @jurgen_nauditt]

CIA Director Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow to warn the Russians against attacking the Baltic states and to pressure them to halt their support for Iran, according to Politico, citing sources. 🤔

In late 2021, then-CIA Director Burns also traveled to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking Ukraine. 🤔🤔

Poland has deployed 28 new South Korean K2 main battle tanks to a military unit near the Russian border—just about 6 km from the Russian region of Kaliningrad. 🤔🤔🤔

[MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA]

🇺🇦🚀 Ukraine will receive four additional SAMP/T air defense systems and the right to manufacture Aster-30 anti-aircraft missiles for them, - La Repubblica.

[French Aid to Europe 🇨🇵 🇪🇺 @aidefranceukr]

Both France and Italy will allow Ukraine to produce the Block 1 New Technology (B1NT) version of the Aster 30 missile, which will be launched by the SAMP/T NG system in Ukraine.

https://t.co/qu2hObSc0v

[Ari Raunio @AriRaunio]

Italiasta Aster ilmatorjuntaohjuksia Ukrainaan. Ajankohta?

[🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @front_ukrainian]

❗️Italy will transfer Aster 30 missiles and four SAMP/T NG air-defense systems to Ukraine — La Repubblica.

Along with the systems, Ukraine is to receive seven long-range radars, six of which will be produced by the French company Thales and one by the Italian defense giant Leonardo.

[ProFin🇫🇮🇪🇺🇺🇦🇸🇪🇪🇪 @RockOla69]

Eli, hoitamassa Trumpin bisneksiä Ukrainan pään yli.

[MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA]

🥔‼️ Lukashenko announced a check of the combat readiness of the Belarusian army after the visit of CIA chief to Moscow, — country's Defense Ministry

📍Special attention will be paid to methods of fire defeat of a potential enemy, taking into account the experience of military conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
📍The purpose of the event is to check the readiness of formations and military units to conduct combat operations in modern conditions.
📍Minsk has begun the formation of a new airborne assault brigade near the border with Ukraine.
📍In the Gomel region of Belarus, a railway infrastructure is being built for the mass and rapid unloading of heavy wheeled and tracked vehicles directly from military echelons.
📍The project includes a separate access track, designed for 60 wagons, and a cargo platform with a ramp for unloading wheeled and tracked vehicles.
📍The large-scale construction of a new military base, where the 37th separate airborne assault brigade of the Belarusian Special Operations Forces will likely be deployed, has been ongoing since the end of 2023.

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

The Kremlin continues arresting the heads of Russia's top drone companies, with the 4th occurring this morning – TulaDrone CEO Yevgeny Grigoryev.

June: Valery Kustov, founder of EFKO's "Transport of the Future," arrested. His drones had been personally showcased to Putin.

July 30: Three more EFKO executives arrested, along with Alla Polovchenya, a senior Industry Ministry official responsible for unmanned systems.

August 8: Drone Solutions CEO Vyacheslav Barbasov and former CEO Irakli Khazalia arrested. Their drones had also been personally demonstrated to Putin.

August 25: TulaDrone CEO Yevgeny Grigoryev sent to pretrial detention. His project received hundreds of millions of rubles in federal funding.

Putin made drones a national priority. Now the Kremlin is arresting the people he put in charge of building them.

[Ari Raunio @AriRaunio]

Spekulaatioita syystä CIA:n johtajan Moskovan käyntiin.

[NEXTA @nexta_tv]

Putin has no intention of ending the war — no breakthrough followed the CIA director’s visit to Moscow

Emerging reports suggest that Putin still rejects a ceasefire and an end to hostilities. Instead, he is once again threatening to intensify strikes on Ukraine in response to Ukrainian attacks.

There were probably discussions of ideas such as an “energy and port ceasefire”, but these reports should be treated with extreme skepticism.

And most importantly, there is no reason to expect the CIA director to suddenly fly to Moscow and end the war. The US has many other issues in its relationship with Russia, while the war has been going on for almost five years and has enormous momentum of its own.

Putin started this war — and so far, he has shown no willingness to end it.

According to one version, the CIA director’s visit to Russia was linked to the Kremlin passing intelligence to Iran for attacks on US forces in the Middle East.

Ratcliffe likely came to warn Russian authorities that there would be consequences if this continued.

According to another version, US authorities were supposed to secure the release of American Charles Zimmerman, who was convicted in Russia for weapons smuggling. And this was reportedly supposed to happen without a prisoner exchange.

On August 25, Putin signed several secret decrees. One of them may have granted Zimmerman a pardon.

[Ari Lindholm @BoulderD]

Aftonbladet: Miksi Ruotsin metsämaa on kolme kertaa parempi hiilinielu kuin Suomen?
Sama metsä joka jatkuu Suomesta Ruotsin puolelle, on Ruotsin puolella parempi hiilinielu.
https://t.co/7nqQVRUnj1

[Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko]

I’m not implying anything, but over the past five years, CIA directors have made urgent trips either to Russia or to meet personally with Kremlin representatives for two reasons:

1. To try to dissuade Moscow from launching its insane full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
2. To try to dissuade Moscow from using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

And now the CIA director under the Trump administration has made an urgent, unannounced trip to Moscow, apparently to deliver some urgent message to Putin, before leaving again soon.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 JUST NOW: President Trump goes full pro-FRENCH CANADIAN mode, rips Mark Carney for LYING through his teeth

“I would never interfere with Canadians speaking French! In fact, I have never even thought of doing such a stupid thing. This lie was made up by a weak and ineffective Prime Minister in an attempt to gain political support, which he has totally lost, from the people of Quebec. I love French Canadians! President DONALD J. TRUMP” 👏🏻

Carney is flailing!

[Ari Raunio @AriRaunio]

Ukrainan ilmapuolustusta ollaan tehostamassa. Keiden avulla on salaisuus.

[Anna @AnnaDeMilanese]

🇺🇦 Ukraine bekommt neue Flugabwehr 💪🎯🙏 – der Absender ist ein absolutes Staatsgeheimnis.

Und genau das wird Moskau extrem nervös machen.

Bei einer gemeinsamen Pressekonferenz mit Estlands Präsident Alar Karis bestätigte Wolodymyr Selenskyj den Erhalt französischer Crotale-Flugabwehrsysteme sowie neuer AIM- und Patriot-Raketen. Wer die Waffen diesmal bereitgestellt hat? Selenskyj schweigt bewusst: „Ich werde nicht sagen, von wem.“
​Das Crotale-System ist ein extrem präziser Nahbereichsschutz: Bis 16 km Distanz fängt es Drohnen, Marschflugkörper und Tiefflieger ab – genau dort, wo es am meisten brennt.
​
Geopolitische Tarnung oder verdeckte NATO-Karten?
​Schreibt eure Meinung in die Kommentare! 🛡️

​(Quellen: Ukrainska Pravda, Kyiv Independent, UNN)

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

The United States asked Ukraine not to strike Moscow while senior American officials are visiting the russian capital, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe.

Think about that.

When American officials travel to Moscow, Washington apparently has no problem asking Ukraine: Do not attack Moscow while we are there.

But just days earlier, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner canceled their planned visit to Kyiv around Ukraine’s Independence Day because of “heavy russian air strikes on the city.”

So why didn’t Washington simply ask russia: Do not attack Kyiv while American officials are there?

Apparently, the United States can ask Ukraine to stop bombing russia to protect American officials in Moscow. But it cannotask russia to stop bombing Ukraine to protect American officials in Kyiv.

Instead, Witkoff and Kushner canceled their trip.

This tells you something important about American diplomacy under Trump.

Washington repeatedly demands restraint from Ukraine while accommodating russia. It expects Kyiv to adjust its military actions around American diplomacy, while seemingly accepting that Moscow will continue bombing Ukrainian cities whenever it wants.

You cannot be an honest broker when the rules apply only to one side.

That is blatant hypocrisy.

[Visioner @visionergeo]

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇪🇺 BIG | CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unexpected visit to Moscow may be carrying a much more serious message than it appears — a direct American warning to Russia against further escalation toward Europe and NATO.

Influential American journalist Michael Weiss believes Ratcliffe’s visit could be connected to U.S. intelligence recently shared with Poland, the Baltic and Nordic states, particularly amid growing concerns over alleged GRU-linked sabotage operations and increased Russian drone activity across Europe. Weiss points to Germany, Bulgaria and Romania, arguing that a prisoner exchange alone would hardly require the CIA director himself to travel to Moscow. He also notes that Ratcliffe is considered one of the most pro-Ukrainian senior officials in the Trump administration and has played an important role in supporting Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities.

The historical parallel is difficult to ignore: in 2021, then-CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to warn Putin’s government against invading Ukraine. If Weiss’s assessment is correct, Ratcliffe may now be delivering another direct warning from Washington — this time over the consequences of any Russian escalation against NATO and Europe.

See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo