Arkansas Quant

📊 Strategy for Nat’l Collegiate Athletics Landscape.
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[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

Can’t pin this as a highlight without having quoted it, so here’s a second chance for you to learn more about why we founded Arkansas Quant:
/ Inform fanbases with the complete picture, not just what the headlines sell
/ Minimize "eye-test" bias
/ Bring game theory to college athletics. Kiffin and Cignetti are two who actively apply game theory.

[Andrew Hutchinson @NWAHutch]

Meet the guys behind @ArkansasQuant and learn how they turned a hobby into helping the Hogs: https://t.co/qeYrWwvUHO #WPS

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@jsjmuse90 @EllisAndrew_ @HunterYurachek It’s Randy, Fryar and Dickey. HY is a symptom

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@CamMellor y’all have got to stop using solely Arkansas pics for Gilliam

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@RazorbackFB @HogsPlus high expectations for Halloween hype video creativity don’t let us down

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@LandonTengwall Andrew Zock. Should’ve gotten a SEC starter NIL offer in the previous portal.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@TheWalrus1951 Interesting part is that we are 3rd best in SEC for giveaways per game. Is he being over stifled to not turnover instead of letting it rip?

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

New P4 Play-Callers vs. Expected, 2026

BIGGEST DROPS 📉
🦆 Oregon O (Mehringer): #9→#98, exp #32
🔶 Illinois D (Hauck/Cooper): #60→#133, exp #71
✌️ USC D (Patterson): #39→#109, exp #50
🌲 Stanford D (Richard): #77→#129, exp #76
👍 Texas A&M O (Wiggins): #10→#84, exp #32

BIGGEST GAINS 📈
🐻 UCLA D (Hitschler): #84→#5, exp #80
🦅 BC D (Roof): #111→#24, exp #93
💜 Northwestern O (Kelly): #85→#9, exp #75
🦬 Colorado D (Marve): #64→#10, exp #75
🍊 Tennessee D (Knowles): #53→#9, exp #67

A #110 unit usually climbs the next year no matter who's calling it. A top-10 unit usually slips. So each new play-caller is graded against where his unit was expected to land. FBS rank, opponent-adjusted EPA per play, through Week 7.

#CFB #GoDucks #Illini #FightOn #GigEm #GoBruins #SkoBuffs

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

low single digit states who are the only sports program in their state, so hard to apples-to-apples that for Arkansas.

I posted a radius analysis at some point in past 6 months but X search terms isn’t finding it.

350mi radius we are a smidgen below middle of P4 for talent versus other P4 programs who overlap with our radius.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

Post Line-up for Tomorrow
1) Recipe a Top OL Unit in the Portal Era
2) Transfers as % of Off and Def Units
3) Off Rk vs. Str of Def Faced
4) Def Rk vs. Str of Off Faced
5) QB vs. Str Pass Def Faced
6) Rush Off vs. Rush Def Faced

Let me know of an analysis you’d like to see. The most favorited will get posted!

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@JV78078172 I think that’s fair. There’s a couple others in similar scenario. I’m only one man and can only account for so much nuance in a wk7 analysis

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

FCS board.
/ Efficiency and pass D faced vs FCS opponents only

/ Kaden Anderson #1 in efficiency, #32 of 167 overall
/ Gavin Rutherford top 10 in efficiency AND pass D faced
/ Austyn Modrzewski #2 in efficiency, #67 of 74 in pass D faced

#LetsGoPeay #AxeEm #GoYotes

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

2026 G6 & FCS QBs w/ 2027 Eligibility
/ Efficiency vs. Pass D Faced
/ FCS QBs in replies

One grade for every level…

/ Broc Lowry #1 G6, #10 of 167 nationally
/ Kaden Anderson #1 FCS, grades with G6's top 10
/ Braden Atkinson #3 in G6 efficiency on 249 dropbacks

Opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback, CFBD play-by-play thru Wk 8

#CFB #FCS #FireUpChips #EatEmUpCats #GoBeavs

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@LockedOnBuffs You can, just low probability of it panning out when 3+ are in their first year at the program.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

Two HCs with massive guaranteed contracts, making lazy hires when they have the resources to hire anyone they want. Should be a breach of contract, and it would be in almost any other profession. Negligence. Especially since Elko did his right after his $75M extension. “Coaching for a buyout”

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@bmarcello @kirkgoldsberry Kirk been out of the loop. Several of the top academic P4 programs have Directors of AI Strategy, etc. Glad they’re using Gemini. Competitive advantage for their opponents who use better models for the task.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

@BestOfARSports @ChoateMason If that’s the case:
1) next 4wks we’ll see top rated high school recruits flip to us

2) in 10wks we’ll have a top 7 portal class, top 3 in SEC.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

2026 P4 Blue-Chip Snap Share vs. Net EPA, Thru Wk 6

Not full roster - only looking at who plays. Offense vs. Defense in replies. ⬇️

Utah: #4 net EPA, #54 blue-chip snaps
/ Oregon, A&M: top 8 in blue-chips, #35 & #63 net
/ Indiana: #4 D with 5 blue-chips on it

PFF snaps. Opp-adjusted EPA, no garbage time. Blue chip = high school or transfer 4-star or 5-star.

#CFB #CollegeFootball

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

$50M roster would be a Top 3 SEC portal haul, top 7 nationally. So, we’ll know if that’s propaganda or not within the next 10 weeks. That’d also be a top 20 high school class at the exact same moment, so we should see rapid flips in the next 4wks.

$50M would double our bluechips. That’s the measure on if it’s propaganda or not.

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

Run it for your team on https://t.co/WjRfMUOFa4
1) Players, then Position groups
2) Group: Offensive line
3) Rk Chg = how far a line moved from last year (Houston ▲106)
4) Tap a team to see its linemen by snaps
5) Filters to switch seasons or cut to P4

Screen recording attached

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

Can you buy an elite O-line in the portal?
/ P4 teams have tried 45 times since 2022. 4 cracked the FBS top 10 OL:
🦆 Oregon '25: #2
🐾 Houston '26: #4 (was #110 last year)
🍢 FSU '25: #6
⚔️ UCF '23: #9

18 more P4 teams are trying it this year. Who's next? ⬇️ thread

#CFB #GoCoogs #GoDucks #NoleFamily #ChargeOn #WarEagle #GigEm #GoGators #SkoBuffs

[Arkansas Quant @ArkansasQuant]

They didn't buy blue-chips. They bought proven starters at their position (RT for RT, LT for LT, etc.).

12 of 13 transfers on those 4 lines had a 500+ snap season before the move. Only 1 was a 4-star out of high school.

Houston's whole starting five came through the portal. @MGSportsTalk @ashtongrissom8

Ranked on OL group score (pass pro + run game). 2026 thru Week 8.

[Johnny🐯Memphis @johnnydmemphis]

“I’m not paid to stand on the sidelines with my arms folded and looking like I don’t know what I’m doing.” - 13 days ago…..