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Bitcoin Weekly Outlook (Updated)
$BTC tested the Weekly MA 200 for the third consecutive week and closed just above it despite a -3% weekly candle.
Bullish Factors:
- Strong defense of the Weekly MA 200 for 3 straight weeks
- Bullish RSI divergence forming (similar to 2022 bottom)
- ISM at 54 (4-year high) + Russell 2000 at all-time highs
- Progress on US-Iran peace deal reducing macro risk
Bearish Factors:
- Still trading below the Weekly MA 20 and MA 50
- Bitcoin has dropped after the last 8 FOMC meetings
- Death Cross remains active on the weekly chart
- Inflation still sticky above 4%
- Panic if loose Weekly MA 200 support
Conclusion:
The third weekly test of the MA 200 shows buyers are actively defending this long-term support. However, BTC needs to reclaim the Weekly MA 20 (~$71,000) to invalidate the death cross and confirm a trend reversal.
Until then, the path of least resistance remains range-bound to lower, with the classic 4-year cycle bottom still pointing toward October 2026.
Market Highlight: One peace deal. Every market moved at once.
Nasdaq 100 futures back at 30,000 up 1.27%.
S&P 500 futures up 0.75%.
Russell 2000 at all time highs.
Gold up 2%, Silver up 3%.
And the most important number tonight. US oil down 4.65%. Lowest opening in 98 days.
That oil number is the whole story.
War pushed oil above $100. High oil meant high inflation. High inflation meant Fed rate hikes. Rate hikes crushed everything for months.
Tonight that entire chain reversed in 60 minutes.
Now look at what is still lagging.
$BTC at $65,000. $ETH at $1,700. Crypto is the most undervalued asset in this entire setup right now.
Stocks repriced instantly. Oil repriced instantly.
Crypto is still sitting 50% below its October 2025 peak and max Alts are 5 year low while every other asset class is at or near all time highs.
ISM 54 at 4 year high.
Every bullish signal just turned green for Crypto.
Big EVENTS
- BOJ Rate Decision - Tuesday
- FOMC - Wednesday
Rest. #DYOR
Follow @NeelMacro. Connect the dots before the headlines do.
🚨 Serious concerns regarding Bitunix.
I’m sharing evidence suggesting user funds may be getting stuck on the platform. Watch the proof and decide for yourself.
If you’ve faced similar issues, let me know below. 👇
#bitunix#bitunixscam
TRUMP LIVE:
- STILL WORKING ON A DEAL WITH IRAN
- WE WANT A DEAL THAT'S MEANINGFUL AND WORKS
- GOING TO HIT THEM AGAIN HARD TODAY
- WE WERE CLOSE TO A DEAL BUT THEY KEEP TAPPING US ALONG
- THEY HAVE AGREED TO NOT HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS SIGN THE PAPER
#BREAKING: US CPI came in at 4.2% year over year in May. Exactly what Wall Street expected. No surprise there.
But Core CPI month over month printed 0.2%. That is a miss. Forecast was 0.3%. Previous was 0.4%.
Here is why that matters.
Core CPI strips out food and energy. It is the number the Fed actually watches when making rate decisions. A miss to the downside means underlying inflation pressure is cooling faster than expected.
The headline number looks ugly at 4.2%. Up from 3.8% last month. But that jump is almost entirely driven by oil and energy costs from the Iran conflict. The Fed cannot control oil prices by raising rates.
What they can control is everything else. And everything else just came in softer.
Two scenarios from here.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds. Oil drops. The next CPI print comes in below 4%. Fed cuts in September as originally planned. Risk assets recover hard.
Or the conflict reignites. Oil spikes again. Headline CPI goes to 4.5% or higher. Fed is forced to hike in December. Everything stays under pressure.
Core CPI at 0.2% just gave the Fed a small window to breathe.
Whether they use it depends entirely on what oil does this week.
Rest. #DYOR
$NVDA: Fear vs Opportunity
While the market is focused on the recent pullback, Jensen Huang just delivered a clear message:
“Everyone has the chance to buy shares at a lower cost.”
Key Support Levels:
- Strong support at $194
- Major support zone at $164
Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in the AI infrastructure boom. The company continues to dominate with explosive revenue growth, massive gross margins, and an ever-growing backlog.
This dip is testing investor conviction, but the fundamentals haven’t changed , AI demand is accelerating, not slowing.
Fear is loud right now.
But for long-term investors, this is exactly the kind of opportunity Jensen is highlighting.
The question is simple:
Are you buying the fear, or selling the opportunity?
Bitcoin ended May in red. Down 3.61%.
While
Nasdaq 100 up 10% in May.
S&P 500 up 5%.
Kospi up 28.45%. Strongest month since January 1998. Nikkei up 12%.
The entire world was green. Bitcoin was not.
This is not a small divergence. This is the biggest monthly disconnect between Bitcoin and traditional markets in recent memory.
As shared BTC/Nasdaq ratio chart, BTC have to break btc/nasdaq ratio 3.0 for real momentum.
Rest. #DYOR
$HYPE reached $69 new all time high while $ASTER just bounce from support.
We are bullish for Perp dex coin after he CFTC approved perpetual futures for US users last week.
Market expect Hype will be buggest beneficiary, will $ASTER able to take market share of US.
As of now major resistance near $0.800 , breakout will create momentun.
The CLARITY Act passing in May would mean:😊
Exchanges get legal certainty.
Banks can custody crypto officially.
Pension funds can allocate freely.
Global capital flows into US crypto markets.
This is not just a political story.
This is a trillion dollar liquidity event waiting to happen.
From trading gold, silver & BTC 📈
To entering the Web3 creator battlefield 🎥🔥
I’m officially stepping into @TheDecentDen – my first live Web3 reality show.
Crypto x Forex x Content Creation
Let’s show them what a real trader looks like.
#Web3 #CryptoTrader #ForexTrader #DecentDen
Bitcoin IN 2025
BTC-USDT PAIR -2% DOWN
BTC-NASDAQ PAIR -21% DOWN
BTC-GOLD PAIR -42% DOWN
BTC-SILVER PAIR -56% DOWN
It will not end of Bull market.
It will be end of Bear market.
🟠 Bitcoin drops again after the Fed’s 3rd rate cut — what’s really happening?
(Plz like, comment if you like this Analysis)
Bitcoin slipped another 3% right after the Fed announced its third consecutive 25 bps rate cut.
Rate cuts are normally bullish… so why is BTC falling every time?
Let’s break it down in simple words 👇
1. Market already priced in the rate cut
Traders expected this cut weeks ago. BTC jump $84,000 to $94,000 just before the FOMC. So when it finally happens, there’s no new positive surprise.
→ Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.
2. Fed is cutting because the economy is slowing
Rate cuts sound bullish, but they also signal weak economic momentum.
When growth slows, investors shift into “risk-off” mode.
Crypto is the first asset they sell in fear.
3. Liquidity doesn’t come instantly
Even after a cut, money doesn’t immediately flow into markets.
Banks, credit, demand — everything moves with a delay.
→ Historically, Bitcoin reacts 3���6 months after the first rate cut.
4. Algos and leverage shake out weak hands
• Leverage wipeouts
• Algo-driven selling
• Whale manipulation
• Large liquidation candles
5. Other major factors also adding pressure
This month is not just about the Fed.
🇯🇵 Japan rate hike — Dec 19
BoJ may hike 25 bps. Whenever Japan hikes, Bitcoin usually sees a sharp dip because Japan is a huge liquidity driver.
🟦 MSCI decision — Jan 15
Their decision affects MicroStrategy, and MSTR impacts Bitcoin sentiment heavily.
Heavy selling or rebalancing from MSCI can create volatility again.
₿ Bitcoin’s own 4-year cycle :Many believe that it's end of cycle and so we are not seeing any buying demand.
We may see one more big flush near Dec 19 before the true rally starts.
6. The positive side — this is all short term
Despite dips:
✔️ Bitcoin is still forming higher lows
✔️ Trendline support is holding
✔️ Liquidity wave is coming in 2026
✔️ Macro target remains strong (160K–200K)
✅ Conclusion: Short-term pain, long-term opportunity
Bitcoin dropping after rate cuts is normal.
Big events in Dec–Jan could create one more shakeout…
but once liquidity arrives, BTC will move sharply higher.
Stay calm. Accumulate. Let volatility play its role.
BlackRock believes institutional crypto adoption will surge as the U.S. economy weakens and debt climbs. With traditional hedges failing, investors are turning to Bitcoin and digital assets. Tokenization and stablecoins, they say, will connect TradFi with the digital future.
Something very different happening in market.
Bitcoin drop hard $110k to 90k in just last 14 days and same time BTC dominance also dominance also drop 4%.
in other words , others/btc pair fully recover from October 10 crash.
Means, Retails not participating in this market and game is played by only at upper level in top 10 coin specially in $BTC by cartel.
It can be big switching of hands among cartel for Bitcoin distribution and accumulation.
But only hope in this market is BTC.d which says something not natural.