The market is underwriting the spend and waiting, or it’s tolerating it and repricing on the margin. Curious which one people are on.
Meta Capex, Q2 2025: $16.5B
Meta FCF, Q2 2025: $9B
Meta Capex, Q2 2026: $30B
Meta FCF, Q2 2026: $1.7B
$META
NVIDIA $NVDA fiscal Q2 results:
• Revenue: $96.2B vs. $92.2B expected
• Adjusted EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.10 expected
• Data center revenue: $89.0B, up 117% YoY; 93% of total revenue
• Net income: $59.7B
• EBIT: $63.7B
• Gross margin: 75%
Q3 guidance: $108B in revenue vs. $104.2B expected.
CrowdStrike $CRWD fiscal Q2’27 results:
- Revenue: $1.47B vs. $1.44B expected, up 26% YoY
- Adjusted EPS: $0.31 vs. $0.29 expected, up 35% YoY
- Net new ARR: $333M, up 51% YoY
- Free cash flow: $377.4M vs. $353M expected, up 33% YoY
- ARR: $5.84B, up 25% YoY
- Non-GAAP operating margin: 25%
- Operating cash flow: $530.3M
FY27 guidance:
- Revenue: $5.99B–$6.01B vs. $5.93B expected
- Adjusted EPS: $1.25–$1.26 vs. $1.23 expected
- Operating income: $1.50B–$1.51B vs. $1.47B expected
- Net income: $1.30B–$1.31B vs. $1.28B expected
- ARR: $6.60B–$6.61B
Q3 guidance:
- Revenue: $1.52B–$1.53B vs. $1.51B expected
- Adjusted EPS: $0.31 vs. $0.31 expected
- Operating income: $372.7M–$375.9M vs. $369M expected
- Net income: $325.4M–$327.9M vs. $321M expected
- ARR: $6.18B–$6.19B
Management raised its FY27 net new ARR growth outlook by 630 basis points, citing record net new ARR, record net new ARR from new customers, and improved dollar-based gross and net retention rates.
Sources
There’s a very interesting dynamic between the Neoclouds and the Hyperscalers
Hyperscalers (especially Microsoft/Azure, and to varying degrees others) are significant customers of leading neoclouds such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and others.
Microsoft has accounted for a very large share of CoreWeave’s revenue in recent periods (reports have cited figures around two-thirds in 2025) and has multi-billion to tens-of-billions in long-term capacity commitments across several neoclouds.
Why this happens?
Hyperscalers cannot stand up dense, high-performance GPU clusters fast enough to match AI demand.
What does this mean for the markets?
1. Demand is outrunning even the biggest balance sheets
2. A new specialized layer has permanently inserted itself
AI workloads (especially large-scale training clusters and increasingly inference) are different enough from general cloud that purpose-built providers can capture meaningful share and win anchor contracts from the hyperscalers themselves.
The cloud market is no longer just the big three + Oracle; there is now a distinct GPU-native tier.