๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. markets surged higher again, as sentiment flipped again on updates on the Middle East, with President Trump advising that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend. This coming just a day after pledging to hit Iran very hard.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
Treasury yields pulled back sharply, and the $dollar dropped as traders reacted to the fresh news, while $Oil prices pulled back to recent lows and $gold spiked.
๐ก Traders will be heavily focused on newswires throughout the trading sessions today, with more volatility likely on any fresh updates. A big UK data drop is due early in the London session, and we have University of Michigan numbers due in the U.S.; however, expect geopolitical updates to dominate into the close of the week.
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๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks were hit hard in trading yesterday as tensions in the Middle East increased again, with President Trump vowing to hit Iran โVery hardโ. U.S. CPI data came in largely as expected, with the headline Core month-on-month number slightly lower, however treasury yields closed the day higher, as did the $dollar, as geopolitical news dominated later moves.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices jumped back from recent lows on the news from the Gulf, while $XAUUSD took a big hit, dropping over 4% on the day to hit fresh annual lows.
๐กGeopolitical updates are again likely to dominate market moves today, although the focus will switch to the ECBโs latest rate call later in the day and more U.S. inflation numbers on the U.S. open.
$BoC rate decision today could swing the loonie๐.
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On the 4H chart, prices remain range-bound. Holding above $86.36 keeps the market in a wait-and-see mode with rebound potential.
However, failure to break resistance, coupled with a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation reading, could trigger renewed selling pressure and a break below $85.13, opening the door to a deeper correction.
Key triggers include:
โ U.S.โIran tensions: Whether the retaliatory cycle between the U.S. and Iran escalates further or moves back toward diplomatic negotiations.
โ U.S. $CPI data: Whether the U.S. $CPI report beats or misses the market consensus, and its subsequent impact on the U.S. dollar.
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. markets were mixed in trading yesterday as investors digested the latest updates from the Middle East that included a potential reaction from the U.S. to the shooting down of one of its helicopters. Tech stocks took a hit, while the $Dow edged higher, as Treasury yields and the dollar both drifted lower ahead of key inflation data later today.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices hit a seven-week low despite the potential for increased hostilities, while $gold also dropped, trading now near key technical support levels.
๐กThe macroeconomic calendar kicks into gear for the week later today in the New York sessions with crucial CPI data due out in the U.S. and the Bank of Canada set to make its latest interest rate decision.
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๐๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks saw a bit of a rebound on the first day of trading yesterday after Fridayโs drop as global sentiment improved after news that Iran and Israel had halted attacks on each other hit the wires. Tech stocks led gains in equity markets, while Treasury yields rose again, and the $dollar pulled back from multi-month highs.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices closed the day around 1% higher, having earlier jumped over 5% on the escalation of fighting in the Middle East over the weekend. $Gold had another whippy trading day, ultimately closing near flat.
๐ก It is another quiet day on the macroeconomic calendar today, however traders are again expecting plenty of volatility on any fresh news from the Middle East.
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๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks crashed in trading on Friday after key U.S. employment data came in much higher than expectations, pushing any investor hopes of an interest rate cut from the Fed off the table. U.S. Treasury yields and the $DXY surged higher after the data.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices dropped on the day as the dollar pushed higher and investors held out some hope that a peace deal could still come through between the U.S. and Iran. $XAUUSD again reacted strongly to the dollar move, dropping by over 3% to close at levels not seen since late March.
๐ก Itโs a quiet calendar day on Monday to kick off the fresh trading week, with traders expecting the market to pick up from Fridayโs risk-off sentiment while also reacting to anything fresh on the geopolitical front.
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks drove higher in trading yesterday with the $Dow notably jumping to another fresh record level as investors again priced in the potential for an end to the war in the Middle East, despite Hezbollah rejected plans for a ceasefire.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
Treasury yields and the dollar both pulled back from recent higher levels as $oil also dropped hard on the positive sentiment. $XAUUSD jumped in line with the $dollar move.
๐กGeopolitics is set to again dominate most of the trading day today, but will certainly take a second place to fundamental data early in the New York session today when the U.S. NFP is released.
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐บ๐ธU.S. Market๐
U.S. stocks fell in trading yesterday as tensions in the Middle East increased further with fresh strikes from both sides adding to concerns that a peace agreement is a long way off. Treasury yields and the dollar both climbed higher on the news.
๐ขOil, Gold๐
$Oil prices understandably jumped higher again as traders priced in a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz while $gold fell in line with the stronger dollar.
๐กItโs a relatively busy macroeconomic calendar today, however updates from the Gulf are likely to again dominate sentiment.
$Bitcoin remains under heavy selling pressure after falling below $70,000, driven by corporate selling, ETF outflows, and U.S.โIran geopolitical tensions.
The short-term outlook is decisively bearish. For a recovery, buyers need to reclaim $68,534 and then $70,410. If macro uncertainty persists and support breaks, $Bitcoin could decline toward $64,264, with a deeper test of key structural support at $62,323 possible.
Key triggers include:
โ $ETF Capital Flow: Whether institutional money continues to exit $Bitcoin ETFs or switches back to accumulation.
โ Geopolitical Trajectory: Whether geopolitical messaging surrounding the U.S.โIran war trends toward escalation or peace.
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks edged higher again in trading yesterday to hit more new highs as investors awaited clear indications of what is happening with the situation in the Middle East, whilst the first U.S. jobs numbers of the week came in stronger than expected.
Treasury yields had a mixed day, whilst currencies traded in relatively tight ranges as they await the latest geopolitical update.
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices pushed higher again as traders continued to focus on the Strait of Hormuz, while $gold closed near flat after another choppy trading day.
๐กGeopolitical updates will no doubt again be the major focus for traders in the sessions ahead today, however we do have some key data due out across the sessions as well as some influential speakers, which could add to the volatility mix.
๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ ๐๐ง๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ญ โ ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐
๐.๐. ๐๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ
U.S. stocks edged higher in trading yesterday to hit record levels again as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. The latest updates that Israel and Hezbollah will enter into a ceasefire, which could pave the way for the U.S.-Iran extension.
Treasury yields and the $dollar were less impressed with those updates from the Gulf, with both pushing higher
๐๐ข๐ฅ, ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐
$Oil prices closed higher as traders continued to focus on the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, while $gold again moved in line with the dollar, dropping nearly 1.5%.
๐กGeopolitics will again dominate market moves in the sessions today, although some fundamental updates will provide a welcome distraction for traders in the latter sessions.