Atrium Data

Real-time credit intelligence for US banks.

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

Full analysis: https://t.co/riU8wDgfXR

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

Bank analysts kept pulling in their REIT colleagues during our calls. "You need to cover REITs."

So we did. Just launched mortgage REIT coverage. 🧵

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

Now tracking $KREF $BXMT $CMTG $GPMT at the loan level. Intra-quarter visibility into what management doesn't disclose.

#mREIT #CRE

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

Jerry Ayoub just pushed Five Star Development — the $2B Palmeraie Ritz-Carlton Paradise Valley project — into Ch. 11 in Texas.

The move halts Madison Realty Capital’s $585M foreclosure and spotlights Axos Bank’s quiet role funding Madison through its CRE Specialty line.

Atrium subscribers will get updates as first-day filings, DIP terms & creditor schedules roll in.

📄 Follow @AtriumDataAI for lender intelligence straight from the filings.

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

This week we published our first research report: The Life Science Reckoning through the lens of Bank OZK. Link in bio.

Here are the key takeaways:
- As a category, life science lab space was untouchable in 2021, most market were completely full and demand was through the roof
- Developers in San Diego, Boston and San Francisco had no problem raising $10b+ for spec lab spaces
- Lenders like Bank OZK took on a meaningful portion these projects, this report covers ~$2.8b of OZK loans
- In 2025 most of those projects have delivered, and many sit completely empty
- We focus on Bank OZK because they make large balance sheet loans, and are unusually transparent in their reporting, releasing property by property appraisal information
- The report goes through 10 emblematic life science loans and evaluates how they are performing, and how they are valued, as a lens to study life science development generally

The methodology is simple. We take a "napkin math" appraisal methodology, with key inputs of sub-market rents, occupancy and cap-rates, and build up as-stabilized and as-market valuations, to show how values have cratered independent of the performance and leasing results of each project. We then estimate what the buildings are likely worth today as life science lab space, and as office - which many of the projects will likely pivot to over time. Finally, we take the perspective of a lender and estimate how they would likely risk grade that loan (1-9 grades from Pass to Loss) using standard methodologies favored by regulators (FDIC, OCC).

Here are a couple notable properties and how they score:

1. IQHQ's Radd - $915m - Risk Grade 5: Criticized Special Mention. As Bank OZK's largest individual credit, this project is tracked closely by analysts. It has signed a couple of retail and small lab leases, but sits mostly vacant in a sub-market that is not a traditional life science cluster. Since origination in August of 2022, market rents are down ~15%, market occupancy is down ~25% and market cap rates are up 175bps - a combination that means the market value of the property has fallen from $1,384/ft at origination to $623/ft today. Despite the >50% value collapse the bank still has a cushion, with LTV sitting at 86% of committed capital and much lower if you isolate the drawn capital. The loan just entered its first extension year and so still has a bit of time to show lease-up momentum. While unlikely to be achieved in that time window, the stabilized value is still nearly $1b. An office conversion in San Diego's decimated downtown office market is also fraught with issues. Flipping to gross rents that would average closer to $50-55/ft means the stabilized value as office is closer to $321/ft, which would put Bank OZK underwater. In the report we go deep on this loan and its sponsor IQHQ. It's worth a read.

2. 1229 W. Concord - $125m - Risk Grade 6: Substandard - Accrual. While a smaller life science credit, this project is in the news now as it was just elevated to substandard-accrual by Bank OZK in their Q3 management comments. The property sits completely empty in a sub-market that is not a life science cluster, and sits adjacent to the failing Lincoln Yards development and shares the same sponsor - Sterling Bay. This loan originated on September 14, 2021 and thus would have entered its final extension year a few weeks back. However, the lack of leasing activity clearly forced Sterling Bay's hand, and the property is now marketed for sale by Eastdil and Savills. The bank has an as-is appraisal showing the value at $74m, and holds the loan on their books just shy of $60m. While that is a reasonable mark if the building is bought as a life science lab, if it is purchased as an office building we think the value could be ~$45m. So while a smaller credit, you can see how the bank - having already taken a $5.1m write-off - could end up with a much larger hole if leasing doesn't improve.

In the report we go deeper on RaDD and 1229 W. Concord and also cover Aperture Del Mar, Pacific Center, Bioterra, Southline, 808 Windsor, Portal 405, Chapter Building II and 777 Industrial. A total of $2.8b of loans, and very minimal leasing across the book.

Betting against George Gleason has been unprofitable historically, and there is no doubt that Bank OZK has no sneaky credit issues - no bank we've covered tracks their loans as closely as OZK. But the life science workouts will be messy over the next 2 years. But, for investors and analysts, the migrations don't need to be a surprise. Using our methodology and our county and property level analytics, we can see and predict which credits are at risk and understand how those credits will hit balance sheets and earnings in advance. Follow the link in our bio to learn more.

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

@pipe @LCSVoiles 5/ A lot of ink already spilled on this, but I think the @mercury personal product is going to be an absolute homerun for them.

It's built on @BankWithChoice:

https://t.co/r9dgrDubG5

[Atrium Data @AtriumDataAI]

@pipe @LCSVoiles 4/ One of their early clients - Boulevard - already touts the Pipe solution prominently on their website:
https://t.co/LFTNyVvo7z