Kap

Austrian Economist, Stock/Realestate Knowledge, Motivational Leader, Not/Never Finacial Advice 🤝 *opinions*

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

#MotivationDaily

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@zerohedge 🤝 Capitalism

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@zerohedge 📚 Class

Cyclical’s hit everything.

The business cycle will always prevail.

I warned of crashing prices and over supply.

What else would you expect?

I am sorry

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

⚠️ wrong,

A.I. pricing is subjective.

The more Datacenters that get built the cheaper the models become.

The more companies start to fab their own chips, the cheaper infrastructure becomes.

Cyclical 101

There is never, nor will be never infinite demand for anything.

Why? Because Human’s are the customer. And as of right now the number of humans is not infinite…. Not even 1/1,00,000,000,000th

Period.

I am sorry to burst your bull bubble on a.i.

*BONUS* a.i. productivity is already declining.

We have 5,500 datacenter….

Open your eyes!

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

📚 The music is about to stop,

You can’t fund an economy through high interest debt on declining cash flows from commoditized companies.

You just can’t.

Pricing power’s will decline.

Margins will decline.

The reason other great industrial expansion’s worked was because they actually fabricated material, industrial, and infrastructure uses.

A.I., chips, datacenters, and more are/will be experiencing deflation.

Its a business cycle.

Its a competitive environment.

Its CAPITALISM! 🔥

These things will become abundant, cheap, and easy to access. They/it will be everywhere.

Productivity is also declining with a.i.

This is a fake economy.

Im not fan of government debt but if the admin would have focused on real growth instead of adding Intel or Rare Earths or Quantum Computing to their balance sheet, then we would be in a way different spot.

The only thing I pray for now,

is that we don’t hurt our future or children even worse by printing our way put of this mess. 🙏🏽

I am sorry.

Focus on your career,

Your family,

Your health!

You got this!

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@elonmusk 📚 Civilization can thrive if;

1.) We stop printing money and ruining greater economies for our future and children.

2.) Start having human to human interaction again. *this can be achieved with less phone use*

3.) We help and solve the p**n addictions. Start having kids.

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

📚 Possible,

On the contrary I do worry that these ~20fP/E become 100’s soon.

I’m afraid they will all slow down in growth soon.

Debt can’t keep being the only revenue source.

They need to make real money and from people/consumers.

Not just other debt financed companies.

I am sorry. 😞

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@zerohedge 📚 Class,

I have no horse in this race, but I have been warning of this debt implosion.

They can’t make the money they need to keep funding the circular financing.

It won’t come from profits.

Cash Flows are declining.

This calamity was for seen a month ago.

I am sorry. 😞

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@jimcramer 📚 They need ROI,

If we can’t get ROI on Datacenters on the ground.

I promise we won’t get it in space.

Unless they just over-ledge debt their way into this. Which is very possible but very dangerous.

We aren’t even using our brains now.

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

📚 It is headed a lot lower,

I warned of this.

Chips are a commodity.

When everyone starts fabricating and designing chips. Then price of chips come down when supply increases.

$AVGO showed us the slow down.

$NVDA showed us a slow down in growth as well.

P/E ratios begin rising fast when growth slows.

Im sorry.

😞

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@zerohedge 📚Posted about this Calamity recently.

It will not end well, basically because all this a.i. debt is backed by private credit. ⚠️

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

📚 If you’re not sure what $OWL is, then I have a theory to offload on you.

This will be the Canary in the Coal Mine for Private Credit. ⚠️

Now you might be asking why Private Credit would be such a disaster in relation to Blue Owl?

First off, it’s hard to find publicly traded marketable securities attached to Private Credit. It’s called ‘private’ for a reason. Blue Owl is a great exception and represents a reflection into the dark debt world no one can gauge.

Lets dive:

- Private Credit is responsible for nearly 3 Trillion in Datacenter build outs debt issuances globally.

- Blue Owl has a $29 Billion joint venture with $META (all debt supported by PIMCO)

- if Blue Owl goes, META’s $150 Billion in Capex goes. 🔻

- If META’s $150 Billion goes, then there directly goes Earnings for $NVDA (Blackwell/Rubin) , $AMD (MI450’s), $AMZN (AWS), $GOOG (TPU’s) 🔻

- If earnings for said companies deteriorate even the slightest then its all over. Due to the massive circle-jerk of funding. “I’ll invest in you, if you buy me, and if you buy me, I’ll buy you, then you can invest in me”. It all will unwind. They will all be blaming each other.

- Look no further than AMD’s miss on Datacenter Net Income… if this isn’t flashing in your face then this private credit implosion sure will. Its costing more money, more water, and more electricity all for less revenue. 🔻

I’m not a perma Bear, I was bullish in 2023. $SPY $QQQ $VIX $TLT

I just see the writing on the wall!

Its screaming CAUTION ⛔️

Focus on work, focus on paying off debt, and stay out of margin.

You got this!

Stay positive and keep going! 🔥

Thanks for tuning in again. 🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

📚Class,

Here comes the Private Credit issues. $SPY

People are fleeing the private markets.

They see the writing on the wall.

I have been warning of this calamity. ⚠️

This doesn’t end well.

I am sorry.

Get out of debt.

Stay focused on family and career!

🤝

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

BLACKSTONE RESTRICTS WITHDRAWALS FROM ITS FLAGSHIP FUND AS INVESTOR REDEMPTION PRESSURES RESURFACE, REVIVING CONCERNS OVER LIQUIDITY IN PRIVATE ASSET MARKETS.

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@jukan05 * top

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@jukan05 💭 Here comes the rush to get all the customers.

You get customers by charging less if your competitors are as determined as you are.

The race to the too, is actually a race to the bottom.

Things are fixing to get really cheap in A.I.

I promise.

⚠️

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@Investingcom Delusional or New Paradigm

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

💭 They can’t even get Rubin’s to ship in mass.

Now, they are already rushing to fabricate another chip.

They are worried:

1.) They are looking for publicity (stock momentum)

2.) They fear competition

3.) They need more false accounts receivables and fake revenue

$NVDA

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Nvidia chip set to launch next week - Axios $NVDA

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@KobeissiLetter 📚Class,

We must not let this become explosive.

Even if we just “kick the can” down the road some more. The inevitable is a dangerous and it can/could destroy not only our country but put our future children at risk.

We need to stop Government/Central Bank Interventionism.

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@gurgavin w/ Virtually Zero profits…

Incredible.

At how naïve investors and institutional investors at that are.

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@Kalshi w/ Virtually Zero profits…

Incredible.

At how naïve investors and institutional investors at that are.

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@KobeissiLetter 🚩 Soon,

It will just be Institutions and Hedge Funds buying and selling from Institutions and Hedge Funds.

Consumer sentiment and consumer saving is DEAD!

🤝

[Kap @AustrianEcon201]

@zerohedge 📚 Race to the top,

While FCF’s are racing to the bottom.

Now how this is suppose to work.

⚠️