Valentin Ivanov

I am a critic of everyone and everything, even though I have no right to be.

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@M0nstas That's one way to keep Putin away from mobilization

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@Phoenix4517 @ConflictHurts @justincbzz I wonder how they gamed it... slow-rolling it but society is spooked over a longer period vs bing bang 300k

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@justincbzz @Phoenix4517 since Putin is given overly rosy (to put it mildly) assessments of the situation on the front, hopefully he'll keep procrastinating wrt. mobilizaton

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@resparvi @v_stus They claim to already shoot down a significant percentage of jet Gerans... perhaps APKWS, Martlet and other rocket solutions are in use

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@clement_molin Russian advances this year would have been much bigger without this campaign

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@M0nstas Would be a massive embarrassment for RU and Putin. If they go for mobilization they’ll use other tactics

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@AMK_Mapping_ It's bizarre how this counteroffensive narrative is acted mostly on ground which has remainedUkrainian-controlled in Deep State

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@justincbzz Ceasefire on the "current LoC" will be a shitshow if it ever comes to that

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@TommyLundn This thread offers an explanation how Ukraine handles these

https://t.co/ndSnML6q8f

[Vitaly @M0nstas]

Punishing The Orbit

Bombs break fixed positions, drones suppress what survives and open routes through the obstacles, and infantry follows on foot to take the ground. The problem is timing: a bomb can remove a building in seconds, but the infantry meant to exploit it may still be days away. The position and its approaches have to stay suppressed until they arrive, and by then there may be little left worth occupying.

That matters because the wide orbit failed. Its purpose was to keep the hardest fighting away from the urban core: work the flanks, cut the roads, narrow the logistics, and squeeze the defenders out before the city itself has to be taken. With the northern arm gone, that radius has collapsed inward. Russia is left pressing Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the east while the southern edge is shaved back village by village.

At that distance the arithmetic reverses. Ukraine flies from inside the belt, with crews, workshops and roads behind it; Russia has to push the same system forward over exposed ground. Every kilometre closer shortens Ukrainian logistics and lengthens Russian ones. East of Sloviansk the 3rd Army is still feeling for a usable approach through the hills around Rai-Oleksandrivka and Mykolaivka, shifting its own weight along the frontage rather than opening a new axis.

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@M0nstas @resparvi Low probability of that happening.

[Alexander Stubb @alexstubb]

Finland and Ukraine take their defence cooperation to the next level

Today, we signed a drone deal with @ZelenskyyUa. The agreement enables, among other things, the joint production of defence materiel. Defence sector companies in Finland are ready, and the joint effort can now get fully under way.

Ukraine needs all our support in its fight. At the same time, the cooperation is mutually beneficial. By learning from Ukraine’s experience, we are strengthening our own capabilities.

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@Mylovanov Russia is facing a huge planning gap

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@yarotrof I expect mumbling about "root causes"

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@NotWoofers Magyar claims so

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@justincbzz HX-2 appears to be a good drone at a reasonable price

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@clement_molin Great thread. How do you reconcile systemic russian lying with increased number of airstrikes in supposedly russion-controlled territory already in June?

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@justincbzz Mate, you should add yourself to the Ukraine list you manage :)

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@justincbzz @Vnark Perhaps they reckon investing in a Dobropillia salient offers better prospects than a frontal assault on Sloviansk

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@clement_molin So it's slower attrition of UA warehouses without reciprocal strikes vs faster attrition with reciprocal strikes. Perhaps UA command decided the latter is a better outcome.

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@MalcontentmentT You can imagine them arguing who controls Mala Tokmachka

[Valentin Ivanov @Balderdash_BS]

@shashj I wonder if flying through Riga was an act of signalling