@balticdefradar.bsky.social

🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇪🇺🇬🇧🇺🇦
We moved to @balticdefradar.bsky.social

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

This account will be gradually leaving X / Twitter and moving to Bluesky.

Since many journalists, defence analysts, members of the OSINT community and others setup Bluesky, there is a quite lively community there already.

We recommend everyone to follow. See you there!

[Richard Woodruff 🇺🇦 @frontlinekit]

❗@BBCBreaking should be fucking ashamed of their coverage, claiming an intentional 🇺🇦 terror attack on 🇷🇺 russian beachgoers.

I hate occupiers more than anything, but we all know Ukraine would never waste a drone on a civilian, so PLEASE, BBC, don’t try to sensationalise this attack just because you aren’t getting enough clicks lately.

Your coverage affects public perception of Ukraine; you are FEEDING russian propaganda down 🇬🇧 British throats. Sort it out.

[Dara Massicot @MassDara]

I returned from another research trip to Ukraine’s front with colleagues @KofmanMichael @konrad_muzyka . Ukraine is fighting effectively, and Russia is increasing pressure on priority sectors in Donetsk during peak offensive season. Observations below ⬇️

[medoyid_ua @LetsArmUKR]

The Russians are methodically building exactly what they lacked after we kicked them off Starlink: reliable satellite windows to steer their drone swarms and naval strike assets. According to analysis by satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepants and reporting from Militarniy, the Rassvet constellation from Bureau 1440 has already delivered at least two daily communication windows over Ukraine, each lasting over an hour. As of July 31 2026, twelve of the sixteen satellites launched in late March have reached their 550 km operational altitude, three are climbing, and one burned up thanks to a manufacturing defect. Their orbits give four daily passes over us, but only two or three are high enough for practical ground terminal links. Each pass now creates a one-to-one-and-a-half-hour window where moscovian operators can command sea drones and Geran-2/3/4 derivatives without relying on vulnerable terrestrial relays.

A second batch of sixteen went up at the end of July. At current deployment speed that group should be operational by October-November, adding another pair of windows. By March 2027 they could have a fourth group aloft, and by next summer they will enjoy near-continuous coverage. That is not a minor technical upgrade. It directly threatens the command link advantage we gained when their forces lost Starlink. Remember how quickly the front dynamics shifted once their fiber and commercial satcom started failing? They're trying to claw that back.

The Kremlin is not magically competent here. One satellite already failed, their production rate is still limited compared to true mega-constellations, and they remain years behind in total capacity. But they do not need perfection. They only need enough predictable coverage to keep Lancet and sea-drone strikes flowing during key hours. If we treat this as just another headline and wait for Western partners to maybe develop a counter, we will pay in blood for that delay.

The answer is not panic. It is acceleration. Ukraine must treat counter-space capabilities, rapid satellite disruption tools, and redundant low-latency command systems as national survival priorities on the same level as artillery shells and FPV production. We already proved we can innovate faster than their sclerotic system when the stakes are clear. The same logic that turned Starlink denial into a battlefield multiplier must now be applied to neutralizing Rassvet passes before they achieve 24/7 coverage.

Moscovia's entire strategy rests on grinding us down through technological attrition while their society rots. Every new satellite window is another brick in that wall. Our job is to make sure those bricks keep falling out faster than they can lay them. The window for decisive countermeasures is measured in months, not years. Time to stop admiring the problem and start destroying the solution they think they have built.

[Fabian Hoffmann @FRHoffmann1]

So, this probably confirms that they put an altimeter into Flamingo and that its guidance suite has been significantly enhanced compared to the baseline version first tested in August last year.

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

@AndrewPerpetua 🇱🇹🫡

[Brady Africk @bradyafr]

New satellite imagery from @vantortech offers a closer look at Russia's Avitek plant, hit last week by a Ukrainian missile as part of Kyiv's growing campaign against the facilities supplying the Russian military.

See more imagery of these strikes here: https://t.co/zUGPVT8MiK

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

@V_Saldziunas @kriegsforscherD It's about the organic UAS/UGS and anti-UAS/UGS capabilities within the brigades. Lithuanian Army is slowly making changes, but the force structure is not quite there yet..

[Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA]

When it comes to the AFU estimates of Russian losses, they're not far from reality, at least in 2026. Russia's own internal reporting indicates close to ~1,000 casualties per day on average, with roughly half or more being KIA (we classify most MIAs as KIA).

🧵Short thread:

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

@Jonpy99 @Rebel44CZ In their mentality, a loss of few pieces of meat is better than a loss of single MRAP.

[Sulkhan Metreveli @Sulkhan]

The West humiliated Russia in the 1990s. This war is the consequence.’

I’ve heard this in every language, from every podium. It is history rewritten backwards.

Recall what actually happened to defeated Russia: no occupation. No reparations. No tribunal. It kept its nuclear arsenal and its UN veto. Its debts were forgiven and refinanced. It was handed IMF billions and a seat at the G8 — a club of democracies admitting a wounded autocracy out of hope.

Now recall an actually humiliated nation: Germany, 1945. Occupied. Partitioned. Cities in ash, leaders hanged, guilt taught to its children by law.

Germany became the most peaceful democracy in Europe. Russia became this.

So spare me the humiliation theory. Russia was not humiliated after the Cold War. It was indulged — and it read every kindness as weakness, every gift as tribute.

The grievance was never mistreatment. The grievance was lost dominion.

Empires do not mourn their wounds. They mourn their slaves.

[Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael]

I think he wanted to be able to rotate brigades, and make an operational reserve, but new units performed poorly. It takes a long time to turn a new brigade into something combat effective. He didn’t use them in this way anyway at the beginning, just split battalions from new brigades and attached them to older ones. Then when deployed as a whole many developed bad reputations for being unable to do their jobs. Some like 155th were just a pass through for people to come in and leave to other units - a revolving door. Also, Gerasimov kept expanding the Russian force so Syrsky felt he had to keep expanding the AFU as well. However, Ukraine found an effective counter to Russian mass on the battlefield, and it wasn’t by making new brigades.

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

@ekat_kittycat @Archer83Able Increasing the 250 kg warhead delivery to 700 km range? Damn right it will be much better.

The main thing I want to see is UKR going after RU power plants. UKR couldn't penetrate such targets with small warheads. Presumably, this is slowly changing now.

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

Satellite images show the results of the FP-5 Flamingo missile hit on the Avitek plant workshop, Dnipro OSINT reports.

[@balticdefradar.bsky.social @BalticDefRadar]

@zlyaleh666 Meanwhile, the first university in Lithuania:

Vilnius University, established in 1579.

[Jakub Janovsky @Rebel44CZ]

Please dont forget to "thank" all the morons who re-elected him and who keep the MAGA morons in Congress...

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

The new commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces has a legendary reputation. Yet whatever his talents, the problems facing him have no easy fix https://t.co/6ngqZbumj9

[Status-6 (War & Military News) @Archer83Able]

The Russians publish photos of the remains of a Dutch-produced Ruta Block 1 low-cost cruise missile, providing the first visual evidence of its combat use by Ukrainian forces.

In the pictures, the tail section of the Ruta missile developed by the European Destinus Group BV aerospace & defense company can be seen.

According to CEPA, the Netherlands-based Destinus has been delivering the Ruta Block 1 to Ukraine since at least 2024. In June 2026, it was announced that the Netherlands will fund the production of approximately 700 Ruta cruise missiles for Kyiv.

The Ruta Block 1 has a claimed range of more than 300km and a payload of 150kg. It is also equipped with T150 turbojet engine. The Block 1 serves as the basis for the architecture of the entire Ruta cruise missile system, with longer-range and more powerful Block 2 and Block 3 versions currently being under development.

[Stuart Crawford @509298]

Yes, yes. Just remind us of what anti-ballistic missile defence the UK has at the moment? Just in general terms, no need to go into detail 😳

[Mykhailo Fedorov @FedorovMykhailo]

Congratulations to Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi on his appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

This is a breath of fresh air and a new source of hope in the fight of free people for freedom and justice. It is the voice of change that could no longer be ignored.

Now, the high expectations of the Ukrainian people must be met with a clear vision for bringing the War of Independence to a successful conclusion, a strong team and decisive action focused on saving the lives of our service members, accelerating the robotization of the battlefield, delivering asymmetric strikes and exhausting Russia’s economy.

I also called General Oleksandr Syrskyi to thank him for the defense of the Kyiv region, the Kharkiv counteroffensive and other historic battles.

These achievements are already an important part of Ukraine’s history.

But now we must move even faster, write the next chapters of that history and correct the mistakes of the past.

Thank you to everyone who made this possible.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: I was surprised to hear I had a conflict with Fedorov. I saw hard questions and different views as normal work in a major war.

Fedorov, if I offended you, I apologize. I can be tough, –– Militarnyi.

1/