freelunch

enlightenment values, physics, economics, tolstoy, @bobdylan @kendricklamar, roundabouts

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

"injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere " -mlk

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate If T fails to solve Iran doesn't that suggest oil will go higher as hormuz will be unresolved and therefore inflation would increase further? Or do you mean Iran and the strait will somehow go back to pre war status?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Do you have a view on if/when continued closure of the strait will affect semis?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@robin_j_brooks @ontrialperiod So if the blockade continues for another say 4-8 weeks where would you expect physical Brent to be trading?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@reddragon2604 Could be but newfound ability to control strait traffic gives Iran new leverage i don't think the Israelis care for bc they're weird it will constrain them in future. The cease fire polls v poorly in Israel at the moment too. Also mowing the grass in part discredited by oct7

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@reddragon2604 & T wouldn't do bibi & Miriam dirty like that (2) W's view. W could be wrong but he's never missed a guarantee. He said inch by inch it's a synch yard by yard it's a bit hard but the best part of the buffet is at the end, implying it might be hard to hold but worth it

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@reddragon2604 Right. The counter is if T wanted to buy time to take the strait he'd try to talk down energy as much as possible for as long as possible to min econ impact, just as he's doing. I'd share your view but (1) the current situation i think is intolerable to the Israelis

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@reddragon2604 W = wolf

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@omshanti08 @JakAnthrax Press shorts here?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@omshanti08 War continues, hold semis short for big leg down?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate At this point, biggest melt up risk here maybe coupon cut in May QRA?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Wise man. For beta what's your preferred cash vehicle rn?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Are you planning on running a blotter, listing position sizing, tracking performance etc for dsstocks?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Think it increases the chance for more rate cuts in the medium term with the anticipation of more oil, lower energy prices, downward pressure on inflation?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@natashaloder appreciated your commentary on Blade Runner on Babbage. Your description was perfect and beautiful. Thank you for sharing it.

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Are there any other market based indicators that inflation might come in higher than expected?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Why focus on mstr when there are other dats trading below mnav? eg sbet trading well below mnav plus actually generates revenue?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Are you still short cvna?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@BickerinBrattle Is nihilism rising or falling?

[freelunch @Bananab3333]

@DsrPrivate Based on Bessent's comments looks like T may be trying to force peace in Ukraine + Venezuela to get oil down. If it works (possible but not likely?) what impact would you expect?