The US/Iran war continues, but the stock and bond markets are increasingly behaving as if it's already over, with the S&P 500 stock market index now above its pre-war levels and average 30-yr mortgage rates slowly returning to the low 6% range.
https://t.co/3kVA69HUYt
Jobs growth remained weak, but market is still focused on the potential inflationary impact of the US/Iran conflict
While rates have eased recently, they're still nearly half a percentage point higher than they were pre-war.
https://t.co/QyBKVTdiCr
ChrisMaxwellMortgage. com
Jobs growth remained weak, but the market is still focused on the potential inflationary impact of the US/Iran conflict.
While mortgage rates have eased recently, they're still nearly half a percentage point higher than they were pre-war.
https://t.co/lUyra63t8Y
CPI (inflation) data was decent, existing home sales are starting to pick up.
But everyone's focused on the spike in oil prices in the wake of US-Iran.
Last thing we need before the spring home-selling season is a sharp โฌ๏ธ in rates.
https://t.co/5OTj1Mm0He
Mortgage rates donโt just move because of ๐ news.
Why?
War tends to be inflationary; markets are worried about energy $ โฌ๏ธ.
If inflation moves โฌ๏ธ, the Fed becomes less likely to โ๏ธ rates.
Global events โ inflation risk โ bond yields โ mortgage rates.
https://t.co/ZBMc16BqSp
Average 30-yr mortgage rates dropped to 5.98%. But transaction volumes havenโt picked up yet. Whatโs the problem? Time. Refis can be done quickly, but buying a home takes months (from the initial decision to start looking.)
https://t.co/yb1sFRUd5y
BLS reported blowout jobs growth for 1/2026.
After 10 days of bond-friendly econ data, looking like average rates might move to high 5% range.
BLS jobs report quashed hopes for now.
Rates in the low 6% range and the spring surge in listings is underway!
https://t.co/kn9ygd7e2e
This has been one of the weakest โjobs weeksโ in several years, with multiple sources (ADP, JOLTs etc) consistently pointing to a much weaker labor market.
Fed rate cut probabilities are rising, and average mortgage rates remain in the low 6% range.
https://t.co/IdkSpWFkna
The Fed kept rates steady at their latest meeting, citing stubbornly high inflation and low unemployment.
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Trump names Kevin Warsh as his pick to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve
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More signs of โฌ๏ธ buyer demand in the Case-Shiller home price
https://t.co/fy1xVQ8HAu
December and January are two of the slowest months of the year for home sales.
But the spring selling season is around the corner (things really start perking up in March), and if mortgage rates can stay in the low 6% range, activity levels should surge.
https://t.co/IaLnEl0hnj
Mortgage rates remaining in the low 6% range for months now, activity is clearly picking up.
Market is skeptical that the Fed will cut rates again on Jan 28, the data from ADP and the JOLTS report shows an economy that is struggling to create job growth
https://t.co/4CPq5i5vJM
Powell often says that the Fed is "data dependent".
The latest data clearly showed both a slowing job market and easing inflation rates.
The Dec Fed rate cut now looks well-justified, but the market remains skeptical that the Fed will cut again on Jan 28
https://t.co/smD2sBx0q6
Powell often says that the Fed is "data dependent". Latest data clearly showed both a slowing job market & easing inflation rates.
December Fed rate cut now looks well-justified, but the market remains skeptical that the Fed will cut again on January 28
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https://t.co/jpDiaVom6s
Powell says that the Fed is "data dependent".
Well, latest data clearly showed both a slowing job market and easing inflation rates.
The Dec Fed rate cut now looks well-justified, but the market remains skeptical that the Fed will cut again on Jan 28.
https://t.co/9d0IkEPnD1