@FTFonFS1@geoffschwartz "But he’s not gonna push the ball down the field all that often" is a true statement. He is about lower-middle of the pack. The fact that he has the most 20+ yard TD passes shows that when he does push it down the field he's normally pretty successful.
@ChasingSnyder Missing the sentence before: "We kind of had [Washington] pegged in for Tate. Once Tate left...". He was saying after Tate was off the board there was a bigger chance for both NO and WAS to take Delane now.
Entrants are up 15% over last year. Total ticket volume is up 37.5%. First year entrants went down last year which possibly indicated reaching a peak but it reversed this year, with first year entrants reaching an all time high. #ws100#wser100
Western States 100 lottery odds 2026, incl waitlist and assuming those with 256+ tickets get added to the top of the waitlist #ws100
"1" => 0.38,
"2" => 0.76,
"4" => 1.51,
"8" => 3.0,
"16" => 5.91,
"32" => 11.47,
"64" => 21.66,
"128" => 38.58,
"256" => 100,
"512" => 100
"women never 1"=>0.31,
"women never 2"=>0.59,
"women never 4"=>1.19,
"women never 8"=>2.37,
"women never 16"=>4.75,
"women never 32"=>9.18,
"women never 64"=>17.37,
"women never 128"=>32.27,
"women never 256"=>53.8,
"women never 512"=>78.59
Hardrock 100 lottery odds for 2025! This isn't perfect because I don't have their women minimum requirements quite dialed perfectly, but it's pretty close. Also, I don't count the wait list so technically odds are slightly better (only some of the wait list has a realistic shot)
@Ben_Bradea@aidstationfireb@wser It's a Monte Carlo simulation like the race does a few days before the lottery. It was based on the entrants list at the time, but that's been pruned down a bit since then so the odds are ever so slightly better now.