Base Case Capital

Bitcoin is the base case. Quantifying the repricing of the world in satoshis.

[Wealth Squad Chris @Chrissssjohnson]

Wealthiest man in the world
“I own Bitcoin”

Founder of the largest asset management company in the world
“I own Bitcoin”

Founder of largest hedge fund
“I own Bitcoin”

Co-founder of the largest company
“I own Bitcoin”

Dude who barely finished 12th grade
“Bitcoin is a scam

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Space X is trading at 105x trailing revenues.

For context, NVDA is at 25x, TSLA is at 17x and the SP500 is at 3.5x

The "normalized earnings" ratio would put it at 250x earnings.

Tradfi is telling you to buy that, and sell BTC at 0.45x power law.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Accretion depends on the metric. Net Assets per Share measures balance sheet strength and residual asset value. BTC per Share measures Bitcoin intensity and long-term equity upside. NAV accretion improves asset coverage. BTC Yield accretion increases Bitcoin per share. $MSTR $BTC

[Jeff Walton @PunterJeff]

People also thought $MSTR was dead in January of 2024 when the BTC ETF’s launched. “mNAV” fell below 1, “flywheel was broken”

Strategy proceeded to go on and acquire 655,256 Bitcoin since then.

$8B in capital > $52B in capital.

The strategy is refined, leverage is lower, the balance sheet is 6.5x larger, the dividends are being paid, capital machine is working just fine.

Excess Bitcoin risk is being pooled and shared in the capital markets, priced in real time, with TRANSPARENT balance sheets & frequent SEC filings.

STRC is not a stablecoin, it is a credit instrument. “Depegged” is not a thing, liquidation doesn’t exist, and margin is not calling.

The balance sheet is very healthy.

Bewilderment will continue, until morale improves.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Retweets are notifications, not endorsements. When I endorse something, I say so.

Bitcoin-backed credit instruments compete with fiat and crypto yield products, not with Bitcoin. When capital moves from fiat/crypto collateral into BTC-backed instruments, it strengthens the Bitcoin network.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Wow.

It's almost like the guy who has been shouting from the rooftops about CEBE is right or something.

Saylor gets it.

The bears need to be DECLAWED.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@mattkratter BTC Yield measures the increase in BTC per share, not total shareholder accretion. Last week Strategy added ₿1,550 of BTC and $100 million of USD Reserve. When both assets are included, the transaction was accretive to MSTR shareholders.

[The Dad Presents @Dad_Presents]

Bear thesis update:

Strategy bought another $100 million of Bitcoin.

Added another $100 million to the cash reserve.

Did it during a Bitcoin dump.

Did it while ATMing stock.

Did it without blowing up the mNAV.

And STRC is back to $97.

At this point the bear case appears to be a support group where everyone takes turns reading old tweets from 2022.

[Hunter Horsley @HHorsley]

People doubted Tesla for many years, doubted Palantir, doubted Airbnb during COVID, doubted Uber post-Travis, doubted Facebook when the iPhone moved the platform to mobile, etc etc.

Companies pioneering something new always have valid reasons for doubt.

But people should realize also that smart, focused operators are dynamic, and relentless on steering their ships to victory.

[Cryptoklepto @CK_Cryptoklepto]

Pure speculation: Last week $MSTR sold 100% of their Bitcoin with a cost basis above Bitcoin price and then bought it all back in the low $60K's to capture Billions in tax loss harvest for shareholders while also replenishing the dividend cash reserve runway for their preferreds

[Phong Le @phongle]

Our corporate @Strategy is to increase net Bitcoin and Bitcoin per share over time. Rumors otherwise are just rumors.

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Saylor won't go bankrupt.
The dividend will continue to be paid.

If he has to raise the coupon to 15% to get to par,
he will raise to 15%.

And in the unlikely scenario he can't,
he will either sell BTC or more shares of MSTR.

And in the even more unlikely scenario that fails,
he will just suspend the dividend and wait.

There is no liquidition scenario.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

@leadlagreport No.

[Phong Le @phongle]

While markets focus on short-term portfolio adjustments, leaders in the U.S. government are laying the foundation for long-term leadership in Bitcoin and digital assets.

[David @david_eng_mba]

BTC timing problem:

2024 and 2025 show the same trap.

Best days: scattered.
Worst days: scattered.
Often in the same window.

March had near +10% upside days and near -9% downside days.

To dodge the -9%, you often miss the +10%.

That is why BTC is hard to trade.

The market does not label the important days in advance.

Bitcoin does not pay for precision.

It pays for presence.

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

Mom, how did we get so poor?

During the great AI bull run, your father went all-in crypto.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Strategy is absolutely dominating.

S&P Global, last quarter, in their most polite possible language, said they wanted Strategy to rely less on convertible debt.

Saylor's response was to retire $1.5B of convertible debt at a discount, fund the entire thing with preferred stock and equity, and use the leftover cash from the spread to buy more Bitcoin.

He hit the bid, sold them STRC on the other side of the trade, and walked off with 24,869 sats per share you didn't have last month.

The capital structure is now less levered, more preferred-funded, more Bitcoin-backed, and somehow simultaneously more aggressive.

This is what happens when people discover that fiat is a melting ice cube and the credit rating agencies are graded on a curve calibrated to companies that don't own 843,738 Bitcoin.

The convertible debt holders got their 8% discount.

S&P got their lower convert reliance.

Saylor got 24,869 more Bitcoin.

Everyone won, except the people who sold.

[Chris Millas @ChrisMMillas]

If I were Michael Saylor and $MSTR was trading anywhere around 1.5x mNAV, I would raise enough capital to cover a minimum of 5 years of dividend obligations for 3 reasons:

1. We are in a Fourth Turning.

For anyone who hasn't read the book, this is a period when what can go wrong usually does go wrong so you want maximum protection against tail risk.

Most people massively underestimate this.

2. You further strengthen confidence across the entire capital structure.

Five years of runway provides even greater certainty around dividend coverage for Digital Credit investors regardless of market conditions and reduces tail risk for Digital Equity investors.

This is arguably the most important. Since $MSTR is not truly anchored to the price of Bitcoin, the entire game is based on confidence (sentiment).

3. You create optionality.

The capital can be deployed opportunistically into Bitcoin if the price falls materially, instead of being trapped solely in defensive funding mode.

If the Bitcoin price holds, nothing is lost because the capital can still be used to service dividend obligations, retire convertible debt or directed to any other activity deemed beneficial to shareholders.

Anti-fragile.

[BitcoinTreasuries.NET @BTCtreasuries]

Strategy $MSTR CEO Phong Le said, "I have a 1.75% 30-year mortgage. Instead of paying down that mortgage, I put $250,000 into $STRC that pays me 11.5%. That’s 10x my mortgage rate." 🔥

[BitcoinTreasuries.NET @BTCtreasuries]

JUST IN: Tether just announced they acquired SoftBank's entire ($780 million) stake in Jack Mallers' #Bitcoin treasury company Twenty One Capital $XXI.