Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social)

Senior researcher @PRIOresearch. My research is focused on civil war, communal conflict, and spatial methods.

[Francesca R. Jensenius @fr_jensenius]

Even subtle online rumors about out-group can ⬆️ resentment & conflict-related emotions. Results from large pre-registered experiment out in @cps_journal, co-authored with Mathilde B. Mjelva, @BastiSchutte, and Helga Malmin Binningsbø at @PRIOresearch

https://t.co/z1m5F3wKqj

[Torunn L. Tryggestad @TLTryggestad]

@h_urdal steps down as director of @PRIOresearch in June 2025. We are now looking for his successor. Curious? Check out 👇

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

One theme at EPSA '24 was experimenting on German public views to increase military support for Ukraine. As I wrote a year ago, the rank order of national preferences here is perfectly predicted by WWII experiences. So please know your bias, everyone: https://t.co/TF4bJ3LWIn

[Henrik Urdal @h_urdal]

The Norwegian Research Council @forskningsradet has awarded new projects for groundbreaking research. PRIO was awarded two of the first 14 experienced researcher projects across the country and all disciplines. https://t.co/dgqVuceJke @PRIOresearch @GudrunOstby @BastiSchutte

[PRIO @PRIOresearch]

Johan Galtung sadly passed away this morning. He was the main founder of PRIO in 1959. Read his obituary here: https://t.co/x38Q8G4Fla

[PRIO @PRIOresearch]

How difficult is it to predict a #NobelPeacePrize winner?

PRIO Director @h_urdal tells CNN's @kimbrunhuber why this year is particularly challenging, and what the Nobel Committee might do.

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Based on the great research forthcoming in Nature by NORSAR's Ben Dando, Bettina Goertz-Allmann, @QuentinBrissaud, Andreas Köhler, Johannes Schweitzer, and Tormod Kværna.

[PRIO @PRIOresearch]

Seismic detections in Ukraine are picking up hundreds of attacks not previously reported.

The same techniques could help document wartime violations of human rights in future conflicts, PRIO Senior Researcher @BastiSchutte told the @nytimes.

https://t.co/Mh0wOn9PFp

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Twitter is a great place to see hot takes on history rise, shine, and die within 24 hrs. The next batch is cooking already: "this is not over yet, because I told you yesterday that it wouldn't be". C'mon, let's just admit that nobody foresaw this outcome and talk facts next time.

[PRIO @PRIOresearch]

Battle-related deaths are on the rise.
237,000 people died in battle in 2022.
Latest figures now out in our global conflict trends report, with @UCDP data. https://t.co/OJ2khQ0PT5

[Quentin Brissaud @QuentinBrissaud]

Our team at NORSAR detected the seismic signature of the event that occured around 23:54UTC leading to the collapse of the #KakhovkaDam. The signal is faint so it is still unclear what type of source generated the seismic signature.

https://t.co/pXvrdZVPwe

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Here's a link to the full exchange. Got taught a math lesson and blundered on my nuclear history facts: https://t.co/I020mxDWl3

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Zelensky calls the Nova Kakhovka dam bursting an "environmental bomb of mass destruction". This is quite true. ChatGPT estimates the upper bound of potential energy involved to be 674mt of TNT equivalent yield. That's 10X largest nuke ever blown. Assumptions, link, and caveats 👇

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Wikipedia believes the entire reservoir to hold 18b m³ of water at 16m above MSL, not all of it will flow out. Nukes release their energy instantaneously, water doesn't. Also: no fireball, shock wave, radiation, or fallout.

[håvard mokleiv nygård @havardmn]

If there was any doubt, this is what can be achieved when you do the right things right in development. ‘The under-5 mortality rate fell by 22% … The results provide evidence for meaningful intergenerational benefits of child health investments.’ 22%!! https://t.co/3w4qFKAE7O

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

I wrote a post on how diverging national memories of World War II dominate the European discussion on Ukraine (and why that's a problem): https://t.co/TF4bJ3LWIn

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

My next contrition will look into how the Western alliance can easily fracture in absence of a realistic military and diplomatic strategy. Good counter-arguments to my post were made by @Vincent_Farns, @finalyendex, @Gramgra96155053, @pictureladyjan, and @JoakimKreutz. (4/4)

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

There has been some Twitter-backlash against my thoughts on the war in Ukraine. I am very motivated by this episode. Ukraine is the third Great Power War in Europe of the last 100 yrs. Germany talked itself into the first two. (1/4)

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

German historical responsibility should not be hesitancy around all things war, but clarity, reason, and above all, committent open debate. I will keep arguing for a realistic plan that can be successfully advertised to Ukraine and forced onto Russia. I expect more pushback.(3/4)

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

@JoakimKreutz Good point! "surely" is a probability. The trade-off is p(total victory) * p(strong signalling effect of total victory) vs the certainty in reduction of death and destruction via durable settlement. I'd go with casualty reduction and direct investment into deterrence downstream.

[Sebastian Schutte (@sschutte.bsky.social) @BastiSchutte]

Wrote up my thoughts on why and how NATO should combine military and diplomatic efforts for peace in Ukraine: https://t.co/3GTCy67WLl