Best Ball Data Muse

lover, best ball degenerate, data analyst, gamer, process truster, Philly sports fan.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

Round 2 Dashboard is now live on BBMPortfolio.

- Track all your advancing teams for Week 15
- Full roster details, builds, stacks, projections
- ROI calculator through the playoffs
- Week 15 player exposures

Great for an early read on where you stand heading into BBM Round 2.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@BallCoach_Nate This was just 0RBs before round 6, but that's a really cool angle. Dug into it:

In the down years adding elite QB/TE was neutral or bad and the pure WR builds were actually best.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

Conventional wisdom: high volume sharps dominate Best Ball Mania. In 2025, that was true- max entry players advanced at a much higher clip than casuals. But in 2024, max-entry drafters were the WORST performing group in the tournament, stomped by casuals.

The reason? Zero-RB 🧵

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@HouseAlwaysW1ns Thanks man! Yeah I'm always skeptical when I hear people talk about going "all-in" on zero-RB or really any strategy.

You're exactly right- you gotta diversify your player exposures AND your roster construction when you're playing meaningful volume

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@RB1_FF Yup- totally agree. Zero-RB could easily succeed again if one of these dudes finishes top 5.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@MaxAdamFF Yeah pretty much exactly where I landed. Structure gives you a good base, but it's ultimately about whether your players hit- and you NEED that elite production to win big.

And for RB over the last 2 years, that elite production has been in the early rounds, not the late ones.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

So is zero-RB dead? Not entirely, but the data shows that zero-RB only works with elite late RB production, regardless of how much of the field adopts it.

Whether it's a more efficient market or just variance, there haven't been any cheap elite RB hits since 2023.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

Looking at 2026, it's hard to argue that zero-RB comes back. RB supply in the first 5 rounds is the highest it's been in 5 years. Which means if you're waiting until round 6 to draft your first RB, you're drafting the RB26 by ADP.

For zero-RB truthers out there- good luck.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@LetsGetPPR Good question- see the table in my reply. CMC played 4 games in 2024, 6.7% advance rate. He also only played 7 games in 2021 when 96% of lobbies drafted him first overall.

So those injuries are definitely dragging this down.

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

Getting the first pick in best ball may be cursed.

Take a look at BBM advance rate by draft slot for the last 5 years.

A lot of bad injury luck baked into this, but still shocking to see how bad the #1 spot has been over such a long stretch (9.9%!)

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

@svlasis1 Good question- two things happening here I think.

1- Drafting in the 4 slot in 2023 and 2024 means you likely drafted Tyreek Hill or Ja'Marr in historic years, pulling the average up
2- the 1.04 is less of a consensus lock. Player pool more diverse = less correlated failure

[Best Ball Data Muse @BBDataMuse]

The exception to this list is Christian McCaffrey in 2022. 28% of lobbies drafted him first overall that year instead of Jonathan Taylor. 20.3% of those teams advanced, and CMC finished as RB2 (behind only Austin Ekeler).

More historical analysis and a new site coming soon.