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[Bill @billhpicks]

Prize Picks 5 Guy Burger and Fries🍔

NFL Sunday🔥

Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rush Yards
Saquon Barkley Over 69.5 Rush Yards
Bhayshul Tuten Over 55.5 Rush Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs over 135.5 Yards
Brock Bowers Over 9 Tgts

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[Bill @billhpicks]

Hammering This Over🔨

Bhayshul Tuten Over 55.5 Rushing Yards

100% Hit Rate This Season 🎯

50❤️ For My NFL Play Of The Day

Tuten is quietly turning into one of the more reliable workhorse backs in the league, and this is a juicy spot to buy in. He's cleared this number in all 3 games this season, averaging 68 yards a game as the clear lead back in Jacksonville's backfield, holding a 50% share of the team's rush attempts, nearly double the next closest back on the roster.

On The Season Tuten Is Averaging.
-68 Rushing Yards Per Game
-14.3 Rush Attempts Per Game
-4.8 Yards Per Carry
-50% Team Rush Share

Cincinnati ranks 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs, giving up 98 per game, a number that looks solid on paper but hasn't actually been tested.

Last 3 RBs Vs Cincinnati.

-Jaylen Warren (PIT) 127 Rushing Yards
-Bucky Irving (TB) 45 Rushing Yards
-David Montgomery (HOU) 10 Rushing Yards

Cincinnati's run defense has looked good as a whole in terms of total yards allowed, but that's largely because nobody had actually tested it with real volume until last week. Tampa Bay and Houston gave their backs just 8 carries apiece in the two games before Warren, and the one time a back actually got real volume, Warren went for 127 yards on 17 carries. The explosiveness is there once a team commits to the run, and that's the matchup Tuten steps into as a 14.3 carry a game back with a 50% rush share, the exact workload this defense hasn't had to answer for yet.

The risk worth naming is Tuten's longer track record, which has him clearing this number in just 4 of his last 18 games overall at a 30.6 yard average, a steep contrast to his perfect start this season. But that larger sample is before his current role as Jacksonville's clear workhorse, and with a defense that's never faced this kind of volume and a back getting 14 plus carries a week, this version of Tuten gives him a real path to clear 56 again.

[Bill @billhpicks]

NFL Play Of The Day☢️

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 135.5 Rush+Rec Yards

67% Hit Rate This Season 🎯

❤️Like If You Are Tailing

Gibbs is playing like the best dual threat back in football right now, and this matchup could be the best one he sees all year. He's cleared this number in 2 of 3 games this season, including a 186 yard explosion against New Orleans, and he's firmly entrenched as Detroit's workhorse, handling 78% of the team's rush attempts. Carolina allows the most rushing yards per game in the entire NFL at 193.3, along with the highest yards per carry allowed in the league at 5.74, and they're missing both starting corners, Mike Jackson and JC Horn, for at least a month.

On The Season Gibbs Is Averaging.

-154.3 Rush+Rec Yards Per Game
-102.3 Rushing Yards Per Game
-52 Receiving Yards Per Game
-21.7 Rush Attempts Per Game
-78% Team Rush Share

Carolina also ranks 23rd in the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs, giving up 34 per game, so most of Gibbs path to this number runs through the ground, where this defense has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns and sits in the bottom five against both man gap and zone runs.

Last 3 RBs Vs Carolina.

-D'Andre Swift (CHI) 134 Rush+Rec Yds
-Bijan Robinson (ATL) 81 Rush+Rec Yds
-Quinshon Judkins (CLE) 79 Rush+Rec Yds

Swift came within a yard and a half of this number in Week 1 on volume alone, and Carolina's run defense has only gotten more exposed since. This game is also expected to see rain, which should push both teams toward a ground and pound script, exactly the kind of game that funnels volume straight to Gibbs as Detroit's workhorse back, with some pointing to a workload as high as 30 touches if the weather holds up.

Detroit's offensive approach backs this up too. The Lions pass the ball at a 58% clip overall, but a wet field and a banged up Carolina secondary are exactly the conditions that push any offense toward its workhorse back, and Gibbs is averaging 21.7 carries a game even without factoring in a true smash mouth script. With Carolina allowing the most rushing yards and yards per carry in the league, playing without both starting corners, and a game plan that figures to lean on the run, Gibbs workload gives him a real path to clear 135.5 again.

[Joe Holka @thejoeholkashow]

Never seen a cleaner path to $2,000 all season.

Here are my 6 alt picks tonight:

[Joe Holka @thejoeholkashow]

8 plays that will 45X your parlays tonight

1. Chuba Hubbard Over 3+ Receptions. Caught 4 passes last week with the backfield to himself, playing 83.8% of snaps, 3rd-highest in Week 3, on 23 touches. With Coker doubtful, targets should rise for everyone...

2. Isaac TeSlaa...

[AE Props 💰🏃‍♂️ @AEProps]

College football Saturday is LOADED.

I spent 5+ hours analyzing all the games and broke down my favorite matchups,

Here's my 3 favorite CFB picks:

[Cody Brown Bets @CodyBrownBets]

🙌🏼 +377 Touchdown Parlay

Tap the link below to load this bet directly into your FanDuel account…

🔗 Here: https://t.co/oXwD2AY6b6

Research attached as always. LFG.

21+, gamble responsibly.

[Cody Brown Bets @CodyBrownBets]

🤝 50/50/50 Parlay

We’ve already cashed two of these this season.

🔗 FanDuel bet link: https://t.co/DNr7NEPNJI

I’ve opted in to FanDuel’s touchdown tally token which gives us profit boosts for TDs scored!

21+ only.

[Bill @billhpicks]

4 Plays I LOVE For SNF...

$100 into $1,000

Jahmyr Gibbs...

[Shaan @ShaanS7_]

Super Bowl 60 Full Preview 🏈

❤️🏈

Patriots vs. Seahawks (6:30PM)

The 2025-2026 NFL season comes to an end with one final game. Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks head to Levi’s Stadium to face Drake Maye and the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 60. The Seattle Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, with the total set at 45.5. Both Mike Macdonald and Mike Vrabel have done an excellent coaching job this season. Specifically, Mike Vrabel has changed the culture for this Patriots locker room. Oddsmakers and the public have made it seem like the Patriots don't belong in the Super Bowl. Despite having the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL over the past decade, this Patriots team possesses a roster that is truly capable of competing for a Super Bowl. With Drake Maye at the helm at quarterback and Josh McDaniels calling plays, the Patriots have a chance to pull off the upset in this game. Now the Seahawks do have the most complete roster in the NFL. Mike Macdonald's defense was among the best in the NFL this season. Guys like Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, Leonard Williams, and Byron Murphy have transformed this Seahawks defense into the most versatile defense in the NFL. Hence why Seattle's defense this season ranked 1st in DVOA and 3rd in success rate. Mike Macdonald is a defensive wizard, and I expect him to have an elite game plan to limit Drake Maye’s production. Now let's dive into some matchups in this game. Will the Patriots' blitz packages limit Sam Darnold’s production? Which Patriots receiver will emerge as the key X factor in this game? Which quarterback is going to struggle the most in this game? Finally, can the Patriots win this game? I'm excited to break down this game, so one final time for the 2025 NFL season, let's dive into the Xs and Os of this matchup.

Let's start off with Seattle's run game.

I don’t anticipate the Seahawks’ offense will find much success running the football in this game. With Milton Williams and Kyrs Tonga in the lineup, the Patriots' rush defense this season has been elite.

Patriots Rush Defense Statistics With Milton Williams in the Lineup This Season:

3.78 YPC Allowed
57.4% Success Rate
19% Stuff Rate
8.2% explosive run rate allowed

Additionally, the Patriots defense has been elite against zone rush concepts this season. With Milton Williams and Robert Spillane in the lineup this season, the Patriots are allowing just 2.97 YPC to zone runs. Klint Kubiak’s West Coast offense depends heavily on outside zone runs, which explains why Seattle ranked among the top five teams in the NFL this season in zone rushing percentage. With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Kenneth Walker is going to be tasked to carry the bulk of the workload. Now Kenneth Walker is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but the Seattle defense is going to be a super difficult matchup for him to get going on the ground. Look for Klint Kubiak to get Kenneth Walker involved in the passing game.

The weakness of Seattle's offense is their interior offensive line, and I expect Kyrs Tonga, Christian Barmore, and Milton Williams to dominate in this game. Anthony Bradford is the key x-factor for Seattle's run game; he needs to perform better if the team hopes to find success running the football in this matchup.

Also, Seattle's run game, from an EPA and success rate standpoint, has been mediocre since Week 13. The Seahawks' rushing offense since Week 13 ranks 22nd in success rate and 15th in EPA. I don't see an avenue where the Seahawks' run game takes over in this game.
Now let's dive into the Seahawks' passing game.

The Seahawks passing offense has been solid all season long. Since Week 13, the Seahawks passing offense ranks 7th in success rate. Klint Kubiak has done a fantastic job this season putting Sam Darnold in favorable situations. It's a key reason why the Seahawks offense has been efficient this season. Now let's dive into the Patriots coverage unit. Mike Vrabel possesses a secondary that is among the most underrated units in the NFL. The Patriots coverage unit this season ranks 1st in coverage grading by PFF and 9th in passing yards allowed per game. Now I do expect Seattle's offense to find some success in the passing game. Particularly in the middle of the field. The weakness of the Patriots' defense is their 2 middle linebackers in coverage and their 2 safeties, Jaylin Hawkins and Craig Woodson. It's going to be interesting to see what Kubiak does in play action to get those safeties and linebackers moving. Seattle doesn't have a dominant TE who can take over in this matchup, so the production for Seattle's offense will likely come from either JSN or Cooper Kupp. JSN is likely going to get the Christian Gonzalez matchup. Carlton Davis in an interview earlier this week talked about how Gonzo was mainly going to shadow JSN in this matchup. My prediction is JSN will see Gonzalez for a majority of the game, but I expect Kubiak to move JSN around in this matchup. You will probably see JSN in the backfield, in the slot, outside, or even lined up as a scat back. Look for Mike Vrabel's defensive game plan to revolve around trying to limit JSN's production.

Now, let’s take a closer look at the Patriots’ blitz packages and how they could impact the flow of this game.

Since Week 13, the Patriots have ranked fourth in the NFL for blitzing opposing quarterbacks, doing so at a rate of 38.3%. This rate has risen to 43.8% during the postseason. So why is Mike Vrabel's defense blitzing more? Defensive play caller Zak Kuhr is following the Brian Flores defensive blueprint. Let me explain. Brian Flores utilizes a significant amount of 2-high shells and implements a variety of unique blitz packages. It's why Brian Flores is the best defensive coordinator in the NFL. Zak Kuhr has followed this same Brian Flores blueprint; it's just that Kuhr likes to utilize more stunts to limit the opposition run game. The Patriots stunt at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL. It's going to be interesting to see how the Seahawks' interior offensive line handles the Patriots' interior defensive pressure. Seattle's IOL is responsible for allowing 89% of Darnold's pressures in the postseason. If the Patriots can generate pressure on Sam Darnold, they have a chance to win this game. Sam Darnold has struggled under pressure this season.

Here are Sam Darnold's numbers this season when under pressure:
51.5% Completion Rate
4.6% turnover worthy play rate
79.5 NFL passer rating

Here are Sam Darnold's numbers this season when blitzed.
74% adjusted completed rate
3.2% turnover worthy play rate
93.6 NFL Passer Rating

Sam Darnold also ranks 29th among all quarterbacks in ANY/A vs. quick pressures.

Now let's take a look at the Patriots' coverage tenancies. Since the start of the postseason, the Patriots defense, from a coverage perspective, has primarily run man coverage and Cover 2/Cover 4.

Man Coverage Rate - 33.1% Rate
Cover 2 Rate - 20.7%
Cover 4 Rate - 17.4%

Seahawks Receivers vs. Cover 1, Cover 0, Cover 2, and Cover 4 this season: (Per Sports Info Solutions)

Cooper Kupp
0.15TPRR|1.1YPRR

JSN
0.38TPRR|4.1YPRR

Rashid Shaheed
0.14TPRR|0.7YPRR

Jake Bobo
0.07TPRR|0.02YPRR

Kenneth Walker
0.19TPRR | 1.3YPRR

Aj Barner
0.18TPRR|1.3YPRR

Elijah Arroyo
0.22TPRR|1.5YPRR

Cooper Kupp sees a boost to his target share vs. man coverage.

Vs. Man
0.22TPRR
1.73YPRR

Vs. Zone
0.15 TPRR
1.42YPRR

The Patriots allow the 6th most receptions and 4th most targets in the NFL to opposing RBs. If the Patriots do decide to run more 2-high shells, K9 could find some success in the receiving game.

JSN should get his share of targets, but I do expect Kubiak to use JSN as a decoy in certain instances.

Ultimately I don't see the Seahawks offense putting up many points in this game. This Patriots defense is legitimate, and Sam Darnold is not in a favorable matchup.

Now let's transition to the Patriots offense.

Let's start off with the Patriots' run game. The Patriots offense is going to struggle to run the football in this matchup. Seattle had the best rush defense in the NFL this season.

Here's How Seattle's Rush Defense Ranked This Season:
1st in EPA/Rush
3rd in Rush Yards Allowed Per Game
2nd in Success Rate
1st in Explosive Rush Rate percentage allowed (6.7%)
1st in YPC Allowed

Since Week 13, the Patriots' rushing offense ranks 3rd in success rate and 2nd in EPA. But this Seahawks defense is going to be the strongest rush defense the Patriots have seen all season long.

Rhamondre Stevenson in particular has struggled against top 10 rush defenses this season. Stevenson is the primary RB1 for the Patriots' backfield.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Top 10 Success Rate Rush Defenses This Season:
9/38 - Panthers
18-88 - Titans
13-18 - Saints
14-34 - Browns
10-53 - Chargers
16-70 - Texans
25 - 71 - Broncos

Rhamondre's efficiency also tanks vs. heavy box defenses. Stevenson is averaging just 3.1 YPC this season when facing 7 defenders in the box. Seattle uses 7 defenders in the box at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Nick Emmanwori and Devon Witherspoon's versatility allows Mike Macdonald to employ this type of defense. Don't be shocked if you see Treveyon Henderson get more reps in this game. Henderson is a unique athlete who can make this Patriots offense more dynamic. Rhamondre Stevenson is more of a bruiser-type running back, and Seattle's defense has been excellent vs. that archetype of running back this season. So look for Josh McDaniels to get creative with Henderson and Stevenson in this matchup.

The Patriots offense, from a rush concept perspective, this season has been reliant on outside zone and man gap concepts. Seattle's rush defense has been dominant against both outside zone and man-gap rush concepts this season.

Seattle's Rush Defense vs. Man Gap Concepts This Season
3.32 YPC Allowed
55.8% Success Rate

Seattle's Rush Defense vs. Outside Zone This Season
3.6YPC Allowed
68.4% Success Rate

Additionally, I expect Mike Macdonald to take away Drake Maye's scrambling ability. Drake Maye ranked 2nd in the NFL this season in scrambles per game. Here's a quote from Mike Macdonald's presser last week talking about Drake Maye's rushing ability. “We’re going through that process right now of how we want to play,” Macdonald said. “I think the key is trying to create as many of those (third-and-long) situations as possible.” Drake Maye’s ability to make plays with his legs has been one of the Patriots’ biggest strengths in the postseason. With Maye's struggles against Cover 4 and Cover 6, I anticipate that Mike Macdonald is going to use some sort of quarterback spy on Drake Maye in this game.

Now let's dive into the Patriots' passing game.

The Patriots boasted the most efficient passing offense in the NFL this season. Since Week 13, their passing attack has ranked first in both success rate and EPA. One of the key reasons why the Patriots offense has been efficient this season is because of the play of Drake Maye. Drake Maye has arguably been the best quarterback in the NFL this season.

Here are some numbers to support Drake Maye's play this season:

1st in EPA + CPOE expectation
2nd in QB Success Rate
1st in QB EPA Play
1st in Adjusted EPA/Play
1st in Completion %
2nd in Air Yards

Now Drake Maye has a tough assignment ahead of him tomorrow, as he faces an excellent Mike Macdonald defense. This Seahawks passing defense matches up pretty well against New England's passing offense. Seattle's passing defense this season ranks 8th in EPA allowed and 6th in success rate. Drake Maye is going to need to have his best performance of the season if the Patriots want to win this football game. With the way Macdonald disguises his coverages, I'm anticipating the Patriots offense is going to have to rely on methodical drives. Specifically, the Patriots offense is going to have to rely on the quick passing game. When you turn on the film, the weakness of Seattle's defense is their inability to cover RBs and TEs. I'll dive into specific players in a minute, but this Patriots offense is going to need to get creative in this game. It’s also worth noting that the Patriots’ left side of the offensive line has struggled significantly in pass protection during the postseason. Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have combined allowed 20 pressures and 5 sacks in the postseason. Look for Leonard Williams or Derrick Hall to cause havoc on Drake Maye in this game. Maye has an absurd 41.7% pressure-to-sack ratio in the postseason.

Now let's dive into the Seahawks' coverage tendencies. The Seahawks defense, from a coverage perspective since Week 15, has primarily relied on man coverage and Cover 4/Cover 6.

Seattle has played man coverage at around a 24% rate since Week 15.

Seattle has run Cover 4/Cover 6 at a 43.6% rate over their past 6 games.

My guess in this game is that Seattle continues to run more 2-high shell coverages.

Drake Maye vs. Cover 4 and Cover 6 This Season
18th in ANY/A
67.5% Completion rate
49.4% Positive Play Rate

Patriots Receivers vs. 2 High Shell Coverages This Season (Per Fantasy Points Data)

TreVeyon Henderson
0.22TPRR|1.21YPRR

Hunter Henry
0.16TPRR|1.08YPRR

Stefon Diggs
0.26TPRR|2.24YPRR

Rhamondre Stevenson
0.13TPRR|0.77YPRR

Pop Douglas
0.19TPRR | 1.27YPRR

Kayson Boutte
0.10TPRR|1.29YPRR

Boutte vs Cover 6
3.7YPRR

Austin Hooper
0.1TPRR|0.96YPRR

Mack Hollins
0.22TPRR|1.94YPRR

Josh McDaniels, in big games, likes to get his running backs involved. With Henderson likely to get more PT in this game, I like Henderson's ability to create something in the passing game.

Stefon Diggs is going to have to face either Nick Emmanwori or Devon Witherspoon in the slot. But Diggs's route share has jumped up to 82% in the postseason. I could see Stefon Diggs having a big game.

The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd most receptions and 6th most receiving yards to TEs this season. But this is not a great Hunter Henry matchup on paper. Henry has struggled heavily vs Cover 4 and Cover 6 this season.

The Seahawks defense has struggled a bit in defending the deep ball since Week 13. There's a chance Kayshon Boutte or Mack Hollins catches a deep ball in this game.

Stefon Diggs is the biggest x-factor in this Patriots offense. He's the guy who can find success vs. Macdonald's 2 high shell coverages. Can Stefon Diggs rekindle his old self in this matchup?

Ultimately I don't see the Patriots offense having much success in this game. The Seahawks defense matches up phenomenally vs. this Pats offense. Mike Macdonald is going to force Drake Maye into driving the football down the field methodically. Additionally, this Patriots offensive line is not going to be able to hold up in pass protection in this game.

Prediction:
I think this game is going to be an absolute rock fight. Both the Patriots and the Seahawks possess an elite defense. This game is going to come down to which quarterback shows up between Drake Maye and Sam Darnold. My guess is Maye outperforms Darnold in this game. But I think Seattle wins this football game. The Seahawks are the more complete team in this game, and the Seahawks have a defensive scheme that gives Drake Maye trouble. Also, what version of Sam Darnold are we going to see tomorrow night? Is it going to be the Sam Darnold that showed up vs. the Vikings, or is it going to be the Sam Darnold that showed up in the NFC Championship game? My guess is Sam Darnold plays a complementary football game. You're going to see a ton of punts in this game and a ton of negative plays. But the Seahawks have more ways to win this football game than the Patriots do. I'm intrigued to see what Mike Macdonald and Mike Vrabel do defensively in this game. Whichever coach makes the right adjustment wins this game. I'm expecting this game to come down to the wire in the 4th quarter, but give me the Seahawks to win this football game and their second-ever Super Bowl. The Seahawks get their revenge from Super Bowl 49.

Side/Total Leans 🎯

Patriots to Cover Anything 4.5 or Better and the Under 45. 5.

(I think the Seahawks win, but the Patriots cover this game.)

(My numbers project this spread at Seahawks -3.6.)

(Both the Seahawks and the Patriots rank outside the top 25 in seconds per play.)

Prop Leans: 🎯

(Please Do Not Risk A Ton On These Prop Plays.)

Drake Maye O 19.5 Completions

(I'm targeting maybe to dink and dunk his way down the field vs. 2 high.)

(The Patriots are going to have limited success running the football in this game).

TreVeyon Henderson O 0.5 Reception or Stefon Diggs O 4.5 Catches

If you were to target a Patriots receiver prop, this would be the avenue I'd go.

I personally played Henderson to get one catch. 🧃

Diggs O 5+ 3Q Receiving Yards 🧃

Diggs is averaging 3.92 YPRR in the 3rd quarter this season, only second behind Puka Nacua.

Kenneth Walker U 75.5 Rushing Yards (Small Lean)

(The Patriots' rush defense with Milton Williams is excellent).

AJ Barner First TD/ATD

(I'm targeting Barner in the end zone, with JSN likely seeing Gonzo in the red zone).

JSN O 0.5 Rushing Yard (Small Lean)

Expect the unexpected; I like Kubiak to get JSN the ball in creative ways.

Defensive Props I like

(Super Small Leans)

Leonard Williams O 3.5 TA

Devon Witherspoon U 6.5 TA

Christian Ellis U 6.5 TA

Leonard Williamas O 0.5 Sack

Novelty Props 🏈

Coin Toss - Tails

Blue Gatorade

National Anthem Over

J Balvin Guest Halftime

Thanks for reading. 😎😎

If this post helped you in any way, drop a ❤️, it took me a long time to make this preview.

[AE Props 💰🏃‍♂️ @AEProps]

We broke down our FAVORITE matchups on Friday's MLB Slate... 👀

Here's EVERYTHING you need to know before the games start! 📊👇

[Parlay Analyzer @ParlayAnalyzer]

🏈 NFL WEEK 2 PICKS ARE IN

Week 2 is here — these are the teams we’re backing this week. 🔥

✅ Ravens
✅ Eagles
✅ Texans
✅ Patriots
✅ Buccaneers
✅ Chargers
✅ Seahawks
✅ 49ers
✅ Chiefs
✅ Rams

10 GAMES. 10 PICKS. 🎯

How many do you think we get right? Drop your Week 2 record prediction below 👀

Follow @ParlayAnalyzer for weekly NFL picks, parlays & analysis.

#NFL #NFLWeek2 #NFLPicks #FootballPicks #NFLPredictions #SportsPicks #FootballSeason #ParlayAnalyzer

21+ | Gamble Responsibly.

[AE Props 💰🏃‍♂️ @AEProps]

Thursday Night Football is STACKED!

I spent 4+ hours analyzing the Falcons vs Packers game.

Here's EVERYTHING you need to know before kickoff:
https://t.co/jSY2B9xg2t

[Joe Holka @thejoeholkashow]

5 bets YOU NEED to turn $25 into $375

#5. Drake London...

[DemonTime 😈 @BBGSplatt]

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[DemonTime 😈 @BBGSplatt]

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[DemonTime 😈 @BBGSplatt]

Love seeing them lil booties jiggle from them back shots 🥴

[DemonTime 😈 @BBGSplatt]

@SageSheisty Gave her ass that ACT RIGHT. 😈

[DemonTime 😈 @BBGSplatt]

You Like Gangsters & Hustlers💰 Well Baby I'm Da Prototype 🦍🖤