Balanced Books

Accountant by day, exhausted by night.

[Balanced Books @Bbooks93]

"America, it is said, is suffering from intolerance. It is not. It is suffering from tolerance: tolerance of right and wrong, truth and error, virtue and evil, Christ and chaos." - Venerable Fulton J. Sheen

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"Equity investors see the growth, and bond investors see the bill." - DB's Jim Reid

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Middle East crude exports hit their highest September level since the Iran war began, reaching 98% of pre-war volumes per JP Morgan—despite Hormuz attacks. EU diesel pump prices remain at records. #Oil #Hormuz #Diesel #CrudeOil #Energy https://t.co/Hr3GOMUsvP

[Balanced Books @Bbooks93]

It's time to finish what we started.

[The Iran Watcher @TheIranWatcher]

The United States is positioning overwhelming firepower around Iran for possible post-midterm strikes.

By late November, the force could include three carrier strike groups, two amphibious ready groups, 120 to 140 carrier-based aircraft, more than 4,000 Marines and hundreds of missile-launch cells aboard their escorts.

Two carriers are already operating in the Arabian Sea. The George Washington and George H.W. Bush bring roughly 80 to 90 strike aircraft, electronic-warfare jets, surveillance aircraft and heavily armed escorts. The Boxer amphibious group adds around 2,200 Marines and the ability to conduct raids, evacuations and limited coastal operations.

The Theodore Roosevelt left the United States on September 27 with another carrier air wing. The Makin Island amphibious group followed with more than 2,000 Marines. Their transit times point to arrival between late October and November.

If all five groups overlap, the United States would gain enough firepower to intensify airstrikes, launch large Tomahawk salvos, suppress air defences and conduct limited raids.

This is not an invasion force. Two Marine units cannot occupy Iran. Their role would be to widen Trump’s options around ports, islands, missile sites and the Strait of Hormuz while the carriers deliver sustained air power.

The timing is the clearest signal. The full force would assemble after the November 3 midterm elections. Trump has rejected the Islamic Republic’s seven-day ceasefire proposal and publicly acknowledged that renewed large-scale bombing after the vote is possible. His administration has also sought to keep the war quieter before the election.

One uncertainty remains. The Theodore Roosevelt was originally expected to replace the George Washington. If that rotation proceeds normally, the United States will retain two carriers rather than three. Keeping the George Washington would create a temporary three-carrier concentration and confirm that this is an escalation rather than routine relief.

The other constraint is ammunition. More ships and aircraft increase how quickly the United States can strike, but they do not automatically replace depleted bombs, missiles and interceptors. The Islamic Republic could also retaliate against regional bases, Persian Gulf infrastructure and shipping.

The Islamic Republic should not mistake those constraints for safety. The military calendar now aligns with Trump’s political calendar. The United States is maintaining pressure through the election while assembling the option for a much heavier campaign afterward.

By late November, the question may no longer be whether the United States has enough forces to escalate. It will be whether Trump decides to unleash the firepower he deliberately positioned around Iran.

[Israel Hayom English @IsraelHayomEng]

Meet Smit Machchhar, the hero Indian pilot who survived a brutal cockpit attack on Flydubai while alerting passengers – who ultimately saved the day

https://t.co/kR0DrZJ86H

[Balanced Books @Bbooks93]

https://t.co/948dsQLdaz

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Top Overnight News

Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz—and use that as leverage in talks with the U.S.—is breaking down, raising the risk it will resort to military escalation to bolster its position. WSJ

Crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since the US-Israeli war on Iran started in late February, data from Kpler showed on Monday, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates boosted exports. RTRS

President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program, U.S. officials say. But Trump took to Truth Social Monday evening to say such reports were "untrue." Axios

Nvidia has held talks with insurance companies about shouldering the risks of lending against its chips as chief executive Jensen Huang pushes to unlock more demand for its semiconductors beyond Big Tech groups. FT

China pledged more support for its slowing economy, including tapping unused local bond quotas and expanding central bank relending. Beijing will also subsidize interest payments for first-home mortgages. BBG

A US import ban on certain Canadian motorcycles, alcoholic beverages and whey products took effect after Ottawa imposed retaliatory tariffs. The affected trade is relatively small at about $1 billion. BBG

South Korea's Finance Minister said closely monitoring the bond market and will conduct treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively: BBG

Australia’s central bank has raised interest rates to the highest level in 15 years as the war in the Middle East fuels inflation and adds to economic uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday increased its main borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6%, its fourth rate rise this year, as higher fuel prices fed into costs of goods and services. FT

Japan’s 40-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand in six years as elevated yields lured investors back to the nation’s longest-dated debt, offering a potential reprieve to fragile global markets. BBG

Spanish inflation rose for an eighth month in a row in September, accelerating beyond the eurozone average as its economy continues to outperform. WSJ

September’s living up to its reputation for typically being the worst month for Treasuries. History suggests October will offer little relief, especially with the US-Iran war, fiscal concerns and a hawkish Fed. BBG

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Top Overnight News

Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz—and use that as leverage in talks with the U.S.—is breaking down, raising the risk it will resort to military escalation to bolster its position. WSJ

Crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since the US-Israeli war on Iran started in late February, data from Kpler showed on Monday, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates boosted exports. RTRS

President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program, U.S. officials say. But Trump took to Truth Social Monday evening to say such reports were "untrue." Axios

Nvidia has held talks with insurance companies about shouldering the risks of lending against its chips as chief executive Jensen Huang pushes to unlock more demand for its semiconductors beyond Big Tech groups. FT

China pledged more support for its slowing economy, including tapping unused local bond quotas and expanding central bank relending. Beijing will also subsidize interest payments for first-home mortgages. BBG

A US import ban on certain Canadian motorcycles, alcoholic beverages and whey products took effect after Ottawa imposed retaliatory tariffs. The affected trade is relatively small at about $1 billion. BBG

South Korea's Finance Minister said closely monitoring the bond market and will conduct treasury bond buyback if bond yields rise excessively: BBG

Australia’s central bank has raised interest rates to the highest level in 15 years as the war in the Middle East fuels inflation and adds to economic uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday increased its main borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6%, its fourth rate rise this year, as higher fuel prices fed into costs of goods and services. FT

Japan’s 40-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand in six years as elevated yields lured investors back to the nation’s longest-dated debt, offering a potential reprieve to fragile global markets. BBG

Spanish inflation rose for an eighth month in a row in September, accelerating beyond the eurozone average as its economy continues to outperform. WSJ

September’s living up to its reputation for typically being the worst month for Treasuries. History suggests October will offer little relief, especially with the US-Iran war, fiscal concerns and a hawkish Fed. BBG

[Grant Hummer @gphummer]

Translation: our gross margins are getting competed down to 0 by open source models and our capex burn rate is too high.

Let’s maintain our margins with regulatory capture, ban open source models, and slow down the capex arms race. All with a virtue signaling cherry on top.

[TankerTrackers.com, Inc. @TankerTrackers]

The numbers have doubled in less than a month.

The total crude oil egress via the USN-BL is now 13 Mbpd, with estimated SoH transits at 10.35 Mbpd given that Fujairah and Mina al-Fahal together account for around 2.65 Mbpd on average.

This is partly attributed to Saudi Arabia having to swing back its exports eastwards due to pipeline disruption, but also due to daytime transits via the SoH under additional CENTCOM protection.

[Inevitable West @Inevitablewest]

Two days ago Friedrich Merz said Germany was "a country of immigration."

Today, his party collapsed. 🇩🇪

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

Update from CENTCOM Commander:

[Critical Threats @criticalthreats]

NEW | The Houthis are pursuing diplomatic efforts that are likely intended to prevent the United States or its partners from supporting or joining the Saudi offensive campaign against the Houthis by claiming that the group currently has no intention to target international shipping. Allowing the Houthis to consolidate their recent advances near the Bab al Mandeb Strait would enable the group to disrupt shipping at any time and for any reason in the future, even if the Houthis have no immediate plans to attack international shipping.

[Balanced Books @Bbooks93]

https://t.co/AqShfOIOmf

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"Dead To Rights": Internal ActBlue Records Show Foreign-Flagged Donations Waved Through, Whistleblower Messages Deleted https://t.co/4HDrL7rAVo

[Balanced Books @Bbooks93]

I wonder what time The Fed press conference was?

[Barclay Matheson @_TMFINR]

@mahmoodalmaghr1

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Saudi Arabia officially confirmed yesterday’s attack on the East-West oil pipeline. The Energy Ministry says the pipeline was hit multiple times and shut down as a precaution, with technical teams now assessing the damage and the safety of the system.

https://t.co/XdFXSlvoWj

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Federal Government Backs Supreme Court Challenge To AR-15 Bans https://t.co/KbNkPSmfwM

[Israel War Room @IsraelWarRoom]

⚡️ @SecScottBessent says there are only ~30 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remaining that China hasn’t bought...and then the Iran-China oil flow dries up because Iran can no longer export oil due to the US naval blockade. 🦅

No oil = no revenue = economic collapse.

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

Thanks to the precision and professionalism of American service members, the M/T Kylo sank in the Gulf of Oman today and joined Iran’s navy at the bottom of the sea.

[U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM]

“Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost —taking out three of yours. We will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.” — Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

Iran's tankers can't get home. One of the many problems for the regime and evidence of an effective sea blockade.