Europe a total mess today
*LVMH 3Q REV. EU19.08B, EST. EU20.05B
*LVMH 3Q ORGANIC REV. -3%, EST. +0.93%
*LVMH 3Q FASHION & LEATHER ORGANIC SALES -5%, EST. +0.48%
*LVMH 3Q WINES & SPIRITS ORGANIC SALES -7%, EST. -2.41%
Bonjour, bienvenue dans un monde où la baisse du S&P 500 (-2.31%) hier soir met fin à 356 sessions (!!) sans une baisse de l'indice de 2% ou plus. Du jamais vu depuis 2007
Top Overnight News
LVMH led a sell-off in global luxury stocks on Wednesday after the industry bellwether reported slower than expected sales from shoppers reining in spending on champagne and handbags. Other luxury stocks also declined as investors worried about demand from Chinese consumers and the outlook for a sector that is slowing down after several years of record growth. FT
Deutsche Bank stock dropped after the lender posted its first quarterly loss in four years because of a legal provision and said it probably won’t buy back shares this year. Revenue from fixed-income and currencies fell about 3%, trailing the average 5% gain on Wall Street. IB income rose about 10%. BBG
Europe’s flash PMIs fall short of expectations in Jul, with manufacturing coming in at 45.6 (down from 45.8 in June and below the Street’s 46.1) while services dips to 51.9 (down from 52.8 in June and below the Street’s 52.9), and inflation was mixed (with higher input costs but cooler selling prices). S&P
Donald Trump filed a legal complaint against the transfer of Joe Biden’s $96 million campaign war chest to Kamala Harris. Elon Musk said he’s donating to a pro-Trump super PAC but at significantly lower levels than the $45 million per month previously reported. BBG
Blackstone is doubling down on its international credit business and will target growth in a broader range of debt including local-currency investments. BBG
US crude inventories fell by 3.86 million barrels last week, with a drop also seen at Cushing, the API is said to have reported. The fourth week of declines would be the longest stretch since September if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG
CrowdStrike blamed a bug in a safety mechanism for allowing flawed data to go out to customers in a botched update, causing last week’s meltdown. BBG
The Federal Trade Commission is seeking information about how artificial intelligence and other technological tools may allow companies to vary prices using data they collect about individual consumers’ finances and shopping habits. WSJ
Selon moi, c'est ce risque là que les marchés actions US sous-estiment depuis quelques mois (via les bénéfices anticipés notamment)
L'économie US tient depuis des mois face aux taux élevés de le Fed car l'impulse budgétaire a été très important et a une inertie qui permet d'encaisser, pour l'instant, une pol. monétaire restrictive. Cet impulse budgétaire devrait diminuer dans les mois/trimestres à venir, et si l'inflation tarde à ralentir plus fortement, les taux élevés vont mordre plus fortement dans l'économie et l'activité des entreprises
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IMF'S GEORGIEVA: IF HIGHER U.S. RATES CONTINUE FOR A LONG TIME, IT COULD BECOME A WORRY (via Reuters)
Consumers “hit a wall” as retail sales plunge to below the level of 2021 — 3 years of stagnation.
While media tries to sugar-coat with comparisons to the lockdown era, the fact is consumers have been in recession territory for over a year. They kept spending to make up for inflation and lost real income, but now that’s ending.
Between falling spending, rising defaults, and inflation taking off again, that soft-landing they promised is turning into a crash-landing.