Ben_Jamin_309

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Total 3 down 9% from bear flag highs, which led to a 20%-25% drop on alts. It now dropped below the range lows, with any retest of the 715B area being a bearish retest, targeting breakdown levels.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

$SPX down 5.3% as per macro plan. More to follow this year.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

PCE targets revised higher.

11 out of 12 members of a rate cut pause.

Oil a serious threat to inflation over the year.

The FED remains fairly restrictive.

$DXY should be at 105-106 until EOY, putting more pressure on risk assets.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Good drop on Total 3. Caution signals were correct as of now. I think flag lows are not unrealistic in the next weeks.

[Ben_Jamin_309 @BenjaminReich17]

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[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

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[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

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[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

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[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

$BTC

BTC has been following our recent plan after failing to reclaim the 72K-70K zone which served as a bearish retest area. We have deliberately never speculated on a higher low being printed as such scenarios never unfold in macro downtrends.

Instead, we believed that the only viable option that could follow after that rejection is a drop below 63K, which has happened earlier today. Below 63K, and down to possible 58K-55K, BTC can form a 3D bullish divergence which can serve as a solid foundation for a local bottom, although structure wise BTC remains weak.

Our job is to understand whether the negative structure can negatively impact those divergences, or even invalidate them, as has been the case last time BTC printed such HTF divergences before invalidating them.

That being said, my main objective remains starting to accumulate BTC long-term at the top of our long-term DCA zone which starts at 45K and extends down to 28K. Even if this zone may not come instantly, I believe it will hit at some point this year. The timing of this is not relevant. What matters are levels, structures and technical indicators that guide our market navigation.

[Ben_Jamin_309 @BenjaminReich17]

Best Macroanalyst 💪🏼@NotTheNewsDB

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Update on 3M divergence on $BTC. One of the cleanest top signals we had in the last years. Still lots of room to reset in the next months at least towards the 50 area on the RSI and possibly below that as well.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Here you either bet on $BTC decoupling from the 2022 PA which it has followed 1 to 1 since the October top, or bet that it will continue following it. Interesting weeks ahead.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Update on 3M divergence on $BTC. One of the cleanest top signals we had in the last years. Still lots of room to reset in the next months at least towards the 50 area on the RSI and possibly below that as well.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Next time we see a sell-off like we had last week we start accumulating $BTC long-term. It won't be the macro bottom, but it will be too undervalued not to start building a bag.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index: Worth keeping an eye on this LTF support. Break below and I think we get a retest of the previous ATH which would lead to a drop in Mag 7 stocks and would offer a great buying opportunity.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

✅

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

$BTC/GOLD with a strong macro support here. I think we see growth towards the dashed lines for a bearish retest which can give some relief to the market, before heading to the lower box later this year.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Alts probably drop another 40%-50% from current levels until EOY, with possible relief rallies in between.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

✍️

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Monthly, 2W, and 1W close this weekend adding a lot of confluence to my macro thesis. Will give an update tonight or tomorrow morning.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

BTC has fallen roughly 40% since its early October macro top, validating our macro bearish thesis that we maintained in the past months.

Recent HTF closes (monthly, bi-weekly, and weekly) show lower lows on candle closes, signaling a broader trend shift, while the monthly RSI has dropped below 50 for the first time since 2022.

Price has also broken key moving averages, including the monthly 21 EMA and the 2W 50 SMA, historically associated with further downside. Last time the monthly fell below the 21 EMA, BTC dropped another 37% on the next monthly candle. History not always repeats, but it often rhymes.

While short-term bounces are likely, the overall market remains in a macro downtrend, with potential long-term buying opportunities lower (around 45K–30K), and altcoins still better suited for short-term trades given their elevated downside risk.

[DB @NotTheNewsDB]

Weekly structure on $BTC turned bearish weeks ago, as discussed in early October when I turned macro bearish on crypto. Now the monthly turned bearish as well with the first lower low this cycle, closing below the 21 EMA. Z-Score also still high to be considering $BTC for long-term buys. With this monthly structure, I find it more than possible to see it between $48K and $30K this year, with several relief rallies in between.