Benoit

[Reuters Ag News @ReutersAg]

Czech farmers cut herds as drought triggers feed crop shortage https://t.co/CWlIZe78m3

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Wheat Futs Surge To Three-Year High As JPMorgan, HSBC Warn Global Food Shock Is Brewing https://t.co/251W7BL1VP

[Sciences et Avenir @Sciences_Avenir]

🦠 En pleine canicule, de nombreux plans d’eau ont vu leurs baigneurs disparaître… La faute à des micro-organismes dangereux pour la santé : les cyanobactéries. Une équipe de chercheurs explore une nouvelle méthode pour les détecter plus rapidement.

[Fabian Wierczoch @FabianWierczoch]

Wheat area is bone dry, tracking 2022/23 season.
Europe will also plant in dust, if no rains arrive.

[La Chaîne Météo @lachainemeteo]

🌡️♨️🥇Il se confirme que notre #été2026 se situe nettement en tête des étés les plus chauds depuis 1900 avec un excédent de température de +3,6°C, pulvérisant l'ancien record de l'été 2003 (+2,7°C) de près de 1°C.

[Reuters Ag News @ReutersAg]

Up to 70 ships queue off Danube as bottlenecks slow Ukraine grain exports https://t.co/QggvmW5AEU

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

Thank you to @JoeSquawk and the @CNBC Squawk Box team for having me on this morning.

Nobody consumes crude oil - refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Crude is the noise, but products are the signal.

Crude fell 9% this week on an Iran-Oman "proposed framework" for a transit corridor; diesel is still $174 a barrel against $80 crude.

The framework is a joint statement between Iran and Oman, not a deal with the United States. The IRGC says the Strait stays shut until Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, and the US blockade remains in force. Five ships transited yesterday against 130 a day before the war. This is the third reopening the market has priced since June. The tankers haven't followed yet.

Even if it holds, you can flush the crude out of the region but you cannot get the product out. Nobody is going to guide a full product tanker through what is still a hot conflict zone.

Solving one chokepoint does not solve the problem.

Hormuz is one squeeze among many that are both war-made and weather-made. Ukrainian strikes have taken out Russian refining capacity. The Black Sea grain corridor is shut with 97% of Azov–Black Sea export capacity offline, just as USDA cuts the corn crop. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remain constrained.

The Rhine is at a 146-year low and Panama is cutting drafts. Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel, so what happens in Hormuz shows up in the price of grain.

These bottlenecks do not exist independently of one another. Years of underinvestment in refining and logistics left no spare capacity to absorb any of it. That is why gasoline, diesel and jet are far tighter than the crude price suggests.

You can increase the availability of crude, but if the system cannot refine and move it into the products people actually consume, the economic pressure remains. The story around crude is immaterial when you consider what is happening at both the affordability and CPI levels.

Watch the full interview below.
https://t.co/Flsj7qCwV0

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Jeffrey Currie: I can see $10,000 gold and $300 silver.

The main driver is the debasement trade.

The war has fooled us into believing that inflation is bearish for gold and silver because of the fear of higher interest rates.

But Bessent's/Warsh's actions proved what I have been saying for quite some time... The US can't afford higher rates.

In fact, they need to suppress them.... and they already are

Deeply negative real rates are incredibly bullish for precious metals.

The last time rates were deeply negative was 2021-2022... gold exploded 3x afterwards

Before that was during the inflationary 1970s:

- Gold: ~24x
- Silver: ~29x

Wars are inherently inflationary, and inflation benefits hard assets like gold and silver.

US money supply is rising at the fastest pace since Covid... and we all know what happened to inflation after that.

Currencies will continue to debase against gold and silver, pushing precious metals higher.

As gold rises, central banks holding large gold reserves become more credible, while those with relatively small reserves are increasingly forced to buy more.

Silver has an additional structural tailwind: solar demand.

- 2016: 81.6 moz
- 2024: 198 moz
- 2030: 321-450 moz

By 2030, more than 50% of global silver mine production could be used by the solar industry alone.

And those projections were made before the Iran war.

With energy security becoming an even bigger priority, solar deployment could exceed current forecasts.

Like Jeffrey Currie, I'm extremely bullish on both gold and silver.

[Illinois Soybean Association @ILSoybean]

Join experts from Optimus Technologies, Love’s Travel Stops and PepsiCo TOMORROW at 10 a.m. to learn how soy-based biodiesel is helping power commercial fleets while creating new opportunities for U.S. soybean growers. 🚛🌱

Click here to register today: https://t.co/I2wj6xwmlM

[Reuters @Reuters]

Mark Zuckerberg had a bold plan to replace Meta staff with AI. Read our special report to find out how it imploded ➡️ https://t.co/B4Yfx3RKW8

[Mystere Météo @MystereMeteo]

Le cumul annuel de sévérité des vagues de chaleur est complètement fou cette année, reléguant l’été 2003 loin derrière 🥵🥵

[Mystere Météo @MystereMeteo]

Août 2003, autrefois incontestablement dominant, désormais cerné par 3 épisodes de même acabit sur un seul et même été ! Quel été de folie !

Via Arkus sur forums @infoclimat

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

🚨 Fertilizer prices may have entered a structural bull cycle.

CoBank sees global fertilizer prices staying elevated through at least 2028 — and this time it’s not just a trade-flow problem.

~31 ammonia plants in the Middle East have been disrupted/shut, while another 49 facilities across India, Pakistan & Bangladesh have reduced/ halted output due to feedstock constraints.

The Strait of Hormuz is another major choke point: ~45 MMT of fertilizer & raw materials move through it.

Phosphate looks even tighter.

Global DAP + MAP + TSP production could fall below 60 MMT in 2026 vs ~69 MMT previously expected.

2027 price estimates:
• Urea: ~$496/t
• DAP: ~$666/t
• MAP: ~$660/t
• Ammonia: ~$619/t
• UAN: ~$361/t

The bigger risk?

Farmers are already cutting P&K application by 10–15% in the US. If nutrient application stays depressed for 2–3 years, soil depletion + lower yields could become the next supply shock.

Expensive fertilizer today → lower crop productivity tomorrow → tighter grain supply → potentially higher food prices.

This is no longer just a fertilizer story.

It could become an agricultural inflation story. 🌾🔥

[Olivier Dauvers @Dauvers70]

Expliquer la conso
Expliquer encore
Expliquer toujours
Expliquer inlassablement

Tous les matins, Les SECRETS de la CONSO, 8h40 ⏰ sur @RTLFrance

[The Fabulous @GetTheFabulous]

🤩 Morning can be your favorite part of the day!
No matter if you wake up at 5am or 10am, you can make your morning productive and pleasant.
Give Fabulous a try! More than 40,000,000+ members and counting!

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[B SMART 4Change @B_SMART_TV]

📈 Le luxe retrouve-t-il enfin son équilibre ?

Après plusieurs années de fortes turbulences, le marché mondiale du luxe semble retrouver une croissance plus modérée. Une stabilité portée par des dynamiques très différentes selon les régions et les grandes maisons.

Pourquoi une croissance de 4% peut-elle être plus rassurante qu'une hausse de 29% ?

📽 Explications : Loïc Lavigne

#luxe #mode #business #fashionbusiness

[Oil by S&P Global Energy @SPGEnergyOil]

Black Sea attacks disrupt grain export logistics

[Les Echos @LesEchos]

❌ « Tout le spectre de l'entrepreneuriat est touché désormais » ➡️ https://t.co/J0PP2oSvCj

[nizar @marvinsroom92]

Depuis que je fais ca sah je peux courir trql trois fois par semaine

[Agroconsult @agroconsult_br]

"É uma safra Mounjaro", resumiu André Pessôa, CEO da Agroconsult, sobre a demanda por fertilizantes.

Leia a matéria da AgFeed, com informações sobre a palestra da Agroconsult no 13º Congresso Brasileiro de Fertilizantes, que ocorreu nesta terça (25).

https://t.co/TtqsbnrAQL