Betting Quant

I trade on @Polymarket using math & code, and sometimes I gamble

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@Atenov_D @bl888m_eth following doesn't work with my approach (most of the time). Also, I might have a hedge for certain trades with other instruments/derivatives so you don't know if it's a directional bet or super short term or something else

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Your edge on Polymarket can be as simple as trading while everyone else is asleep.

Some of my best trades on US stocks happened during the overnight and pre-market session. Fewer bots are active and the orderbook is slower to react.

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Some people think the whole world is just one big Polymarket orderbook: anonymous, zero-sum, and every interaction is an opportunity to extract money from someone less careful...

[Choice.markets @choice_markets]

‼️https://t.co/G1p75TsHvY Official Statement: We were scammed by the KOL @CarOnPolymarket

Here‘s the proof：

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Finally back above a P&L of $30k!

https://t.co/ruT5u081Om

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@OctagonAnalytic @PolymarketTrade you saw my positions

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Someone is cooking something... @PolymarketTrade

I see a lot of similar-looking accounts placing these kind of trades in inactive markets: Literally transferring money from one account to another. I guess soon we'll see a new winner on the leaderboard coming out of nowhere.

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@Remember_Amalek how?

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@_dominatos "At T-10 seconds before window close, BTC direction is ~85% determined" - and Polymarket already trades at 99 😅

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

A series of UP or DOWN always attracts Martingale-Players... The problem: They drive the price for the next 50/50 outcome sometimes up to 60c, before the start of the next 15min-block, and then they have to buy even more shares to cover previous losses...

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

THEY DID IT AGAIN: Manipulating the 15-min BTC market @Polymarket

BTC was down ~$20 in the last minute but the price for DOWN on the 15-min up or down market was just 20c vs. 80c for UP. Someone was heavily buying UP. Then, in the last 30 seconds, BTC shoots up $35 and UP wins!

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@securezer0 I meant, every inefficient market will get arbed away, even weather etc.

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@securezer0 Yes, and the fastest bots with the best prediction model will take it instantly

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@securezer0 It will all get arbitraged away very soon

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@ItsNash0 Did you look into who was buying the opposite side?

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@Andrey_10gwei You built your calculation on the already false assumption of doubling 16x in a row. Don't you see that 16x would turn $12 into 786k, not 100k? To turn $12 into $3000, you need a mere 256 accounts and just about 3k (someone mentioned, from 3k onwards, he traded normally).

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Fridays are best for trading the Finance category on @Polymarket

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

Its crazy to me how people have such little understanding of basic math when it comes to probabilities and @Polymarket. 8300x means doubling your account 13 times, not 16 times. Very big difference!! Just use a calculator

[ascetic @ascetic0x]

I DID IT!!! Turned $12 into $100,000 (over 8,300x) by going all-in and doubling my bankroll 16 times in a row on short-term BTC moves - while sharing my bets and the reasoning behind them along the way.

This is only possible on @Polymarket !!!

It took a lot of work and real skin in the game, so if you’re reading this, a simple RT or comment would really mean a lot.

Huge shoutout to @shayne_coplanand @Polymarket team for building the best prediction market platform out there. And special thanks to @zscdao and @PolymarketTrade for the support🤝

Track my progress here: https://t.co/9MOdfR72Nd

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@CarOnPolymarket @polygun_ with such few trades statistically irrelevant

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@holy_moses7 he even bothered to give them all names

[Betting Quant @Betting_Quant]

@holy_moses7 Crazy! But just for the first 3k, then he doubled 5x times?