Beyond Non-JD

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

I obviously don't have inside information for this stuff. I just thought it would make sense for Judge Erickson & Judge Engelhardt to go senior in Trump 2.0. So I wasn't surprised when Judge Erickson announced & with the news today.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

By my count, at least three Trump 1.0 circuit judges will be able to go senior during Trump 2.0. Two elevated & one selected after reaching 60.

Judge Engelhardt (CCA5) (previously E.D. La.)
Judge Erickson (CCA8) (previously D.N.D.)
Judge Bennett (CCA9) (confirmed at 60+) (2028)

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

He's also building quite a bench of district judges. Was initially wondering if Divine would get the elevation before Smith got the nod on CCA8, but you can also see a world where Mitchell is in line for a CCA5 pick (very stiff competition) if one of the ~3 opens up in 2027-2028.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

If Thomas eventually decides to retire on his own terms *and* favorable President/Senate conditions (2028?), I'd think the most likely combo is (i) former clerk & (ii) current circuit judge. See, Breyer->KBJ & Kennedy->Kavanaugh.

Who would that most likely be for him?

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

18 months in, there are still 4 red state district court vacancies w/o nominees. & 4 that still require more steps.

I don't think Republicans are getting a nuked filibuster & SAVE America Act within 4 months. Trump 2.0 can still bail them out in late October, but it'll be dicey.

[Mike Lee @BasedMikeLee]

To donors:

“Pass the SAVE America Act”

To Fox News:

“Pass the SAVE America Act”

On talk radio:

“Pass the SAVE America Act”

At campaign rallies:

“Pass the SAVE America Act”

To Senate Republicans behind closed doors:

“Stop talking about the SAVE America Act”

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Commissions issued on Thursday for Smith (CCA8), Clarke (D.S.C., longest wait), Lane (D. Montana), Kuhlman, Mattivi, & Powell (D. Kansas).

Will see when they take the bench/court websites update to include them. And when Benton officially goes senior.

https://t.co/EvyF6nYodL

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Article I saw today on Judge Domenico, as we wait for his SJC Nomination Hearing. Wednesday?

https://t.co/GfSsPanSDz

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Whatever beef exists between Cornyn & Trump? Blocking strong conservatives from sitting on the bench would make no sense given Cornyn's background. You may have to dial back some ultra Trump 2.0-y noms, but the bipartisan FJEC & selecting final picks can already screen for that.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Cornyn, Cruz, & the White House still have 3 current openings without nominees: 2x on N.D. Texas & 1x on S.D. Texas. They have 1 upcoming on W.D. Texas.

Keeping them open for Paxton would be a huge and needless risk.

https://t.co/KBI9kveTZD

[Elmo @elmo]

Elmo just wants to set the record straight... ❤️❤️ GO TEAM USA! ⚽

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Though Massachusetts sits with Washington and New Jersey I find it hard to imagine agreeing. States & Senators that didn't play ball in Trump 1.0. Georgia may be on that list as well.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

The District of Massachusetts has two openings.

2029 additions: Rachael Rollins & Michelle Wu?

Before all the craziness, I figured that if Trump 2.0 wanted to stress test district court blue slips this would have been the place to get creative.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Another one of the many reasons keeping the Senate is so important: another 2 years and some more Democrats will decide it's time to work on compromise picks.

Same thing happened with plenty of Senate Rs after 2022.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

"Everybody knows we're not nuking the filibuster."

If the Trump 2.0/Rick Scott for ML wing of Senate Republicans actually wants to make this stuff happen, 2029 is the smart target date.

Already changing out a couple institutionalists in 2026. A few low-hanging fruit in 2028.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

NEW: Thune in interview laments SAVE America Act causing unnecessary rifts among Senate R’s and with Trump

“Everybody knows we’re not nuking the filibuster… At some point, it seems like we ought to start making this an issue with the Democrats rather than with each other.”

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

@leamingtonspas1 @LeaderJohnThune Sutton doesn't go senior until 10/1/2026 so there's really no rush on that one. Livingston goes senior 7/1/2026, so every day past that there is a vacancy on the Second Circuit.

Takes way more time to confirm circuit judges, so I'd probably do late July before recess.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Still radio silence on Westercamp.

But here's where we stand going into next week. We'll see if @LeaderJohnThune prioritizes any more AIII confirmations before the Fourth of July break.

Also curious about the 6/24 hearing. Should know more Tuesday night.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Smith 48-43 too. Missed that.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

The wheels have not come off. But they have slowed down on Article III judges.

Attendance issues. Some own goals. Some complex dynamics. Nature of other priorities when you have the House & Senate.

For Rs now? Going into the midterms with every circuit seat filled is a win.

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

There's always some risk. But if you feel confident that your worst case is losing the House and a D +3 in the Senate, that means you have 2 years to work through Murkowski to confirm district judges (& any new openings). It'd suck but it wouldn't be end-of-the-world disaster.

[Bloomberg Law @BLaw]

President Donald Trump’s nominee for a seat on the influential Fifth Circuit may come down to Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.). https://t.co/hyjBtCsL0u

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Based on this, seems like he might only want to take leadership back if Republicans keep the Senate? Hard to read too much into it without more info, though.

https://t.co/GvHeLzqERo

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Fun subplots for the 120th Congress for Graham/Judiciary:

What does Graham back as Republican leader on Judiciary mean for blue slip?

What will the Graham-Whitehouse (likely) dynamics be like compared to Graham-Durbin?

Who gets those Cornyn/Tillis/Blackburn (likely) seats?

[Beyond Non-JD @BeyondNonJD]

Remember that he's a big "elections have consequences" guy. I believe was #3 (behind Collins/Murkowski) on confirming Biden judges & helped Dems out of a couple tight spots.

But he's also good at reading the winds and he sees the Lee/Cruz/Hawley/Schmitt group taking charge.