๐๐ Event Preview: ๐บ๐ธUS CPI Report โ 11 September 2026
๐ Macro Backdrop
The US inflation takes center stage ahead of next weekโs Fed decision, with markets pricing currently a 70% chance of a 25bp rate hike ahead of release. Todayโs CPI could determine whether that probability moves closer to fully priced or retreats.
๐ Whatโs Expected
Headline CPI is forecasted at 3.4% YoY, unchanged from July, while monthly inflation is expected to accelerate sharply to 0.4% from 0.1%. Core CPI is forecasted to ease to 2.4% YoY from 2.5%.
๐ก Fed Outlook. A hotter print would strengthen the case for a September hike, supporting the USD. Softer inflation would challenge the recent hawkish repricing and reduce expectations for immediate tightening.
๐ฅ XAUUSD Technical Levels and Scenarios
Current Support: $4,310.
Current Resistance: $4,360.
๐ด Scenario 1 โ Hotter CPI
An upside surprise could push Fed hike expectations higher and pressure gold below $4,300, opening the way for a deeper correction.
๐ข Scenario 2 โ Dovish Hike
A downside surprise could weaken the dollar and yields, helping XAUUSD break above $4,400 and revive bullish momentum.
๐ Expect volatility around the US CPI release.
https://t.co/smIi1XMrQZ
๐จ Market View: Yesterday the market kept trading the ranges. Today the macro catalysts will surely break them.๐จ
๐ตUSD
Today the USD would definitely move out of the range with the ECB rate decision followed by US PPI, creating the conditions for a significant expansion in intraday volatility.
๐ฅ XAUUSD
A recovery above $4,450โ4,460 would provide the first meaningful technical confirmation of renewed buying momentum in gold.
๐ช๐บ EURUSD
A 25bp ECB rate increase is largely priced in, meaning the decision itself may be insufficient to generate a sustained appreciation in the euro.
๐ฐ BTC
Bitcoin stayed anchored around $78,500, having failed either to establish a recovery or develop a bearish impulse.
https://t.co/smIi1XMrQZ
๐๐ฐ Market Wrap: ๐ช๐บECB Hikes to 2.65%, Inflation Risks Keep Hawkish Bias Alive โ 10 September 2026
๐The European Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps to 2.65% in line with expectations, as inflation remains elevated at 3.3%. The ECB also revised its inflation outlook for the better, forecasting price growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027.
๐ Macro Backdrop
The decision itself delivered little surprise, but the updated inflation outlook gave the meeting a modestly hawkish tilt. The officials stopped short of signaling of another increase to come, reiterating that future decisions will remain data-dependent. Still, higher inflation horizons and a more explicit focus on upside risks from energy prices suggest the door to further tightening remains open.
๐ช๐บEURUSD was left to digest a mixed policy signal: a widely anticipated rate increase accompanied by no firm commitment to continue tightening. The pair quickly dropped below 1.16000 in the absence of the clear signal but returned at 1.16100 afterwards.
๐๐ The policy path remains finely balanced. The ECB has neither declared victory over inflation nor committed to another hike.
๐ฅ The takeaway is modestly hawkish rather than aggressive. With inflation still above target and energy risks back in focus, the ECB has kept the door open to further data-dependent tightening.
https://t.co/smIi1XMrQZ
๐ Event Preview:๐ช๐บECB Rate Decision โ 10 September 2026
The eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, largely reflecting higher energy costs, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.4%. At the same time, economic activity has remained resilient enough to give the ECB scope for additional tightening. The combination has strengthened expectations for another rate increase at Septemberโs meeting.
๐ Whatโs Expected
The ECB is widely expected to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points, from 2.40% to 2.65%.
๐ก Forward Guidance. The rate increase itself is largely anticipated, making President Lagardeโs guidance particularly important. Markets will focus on whether the regulator describes the move as sufficient insurance against energy-driven inflation or leave the door open to further tightening.
๐ช๐บ EURUSD Technical Levels and Scenarios
Current Support: 1.16300.
Current Resistance: 1.16500.
The immediate directional move is therefore likely to depend less on the 25bp increase itself and more on the signal for December and beyond.
๐ข Scenario 1 โ Hawkish Hike
If the ECB raises rates and keeps the possibility of further tightening firmly in play, EURUSD could break above 1.16700, bringing the 1.17000โ1.17200 area into focus.
๐ด Scenario 2 โ Dovish Hike
Should the central bank raise the rate but signal that September would stop the further way higher, the euro could surrender its pre-meeting gains. A move below 1.16000 could expose the 1.15700โ1.15800 area.
๐ Expect volatility spikes around the ECB decision and Lagardeโs press conference.
https://t.co/smIi1XMrQZ
Happy Ethiopian New Year โ Enkutatash! ๐ช๐นโจ
Wishing our traders from Ethiopia and everyone celebrating this beautiful holiday a joyful Enkutatash!
May this New Year bring you fresh opportunities, prosperity, and success in all your endeavors. Just as the name "Enkutatash" suggests, may your year be filled with precious moments and valuable achievements! ๐
Here's to new beginnings, growth, and reaching new heights! ๐
Happy New Year from the Headway family!
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๐ฅ๐ฅ Sellers Hit Gold & Silver๐ฅ
๐ฅSelling pressure is building across gold and silver...
๐Bears taking control?
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๐โ๏ธMarket Basics: WHEN POSITIVE CARRY TURNS AGAINST YOU๐ฑ๐ค
๐A positive swap pays slowly. FX can move fast.
In our previous Market Basics, we learnt what positive and negative swaps are and how overnight interest can either add to or reduce the result of a FX position.
๐Now comes the important part: what happens when the market moves against a positive-carry trade?
A carry trade allows to benefit from the interest-rate differential between two currencies. In USDJPY, higher US rates relative to Japanese rates can make long positions attractive because traders may receive positive overnight swap.
But positive carry does not protect you from price movements...
๐ก Example: ๐ USDJPY | July 2026
USDJPY climbed towards 164 in late July โ an attractive environment for long-dollar carry traders.
Then the market reversed.
On 30 July, USDJPY fell by more than 3% in a single session as the yen surged. By 02 August, the pair was trading around 155.1 โ roughly 5.3% below its July peak.
๐ Why does it matter?
If a carry trade generates around 0.25% per month, a 5% reverse FX move can erase roughly a two-year of theoretical carry.
And that move can happen in a couple of days.
โก๏ธPractical Tips. A positive swap is an additional return โ not protection against the market risk.
A favorable interest-rate differential may work for weeks or months, but a sudden change in central-bank policy, intervention expectations or market sentiment can trigger a rapid carry unwind.
๐ก Carry pays slowly. FX moves fast. Manage the price risk first.
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